What is the word risk mean

In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening.[1] Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences.[2] Many different definitions have been proposed. The international standard definition of risk for common understanding in different applications is “effect of uncertainty on objectives”.[3]

The understanding of risk, the methods of assessment and management, the descriptions of risk and even the definitions of risk differ in different practice areas (business, economics, environment, finance, information technology, health, insurance, safety, security etc). This article provides links to more detailed articles on these areas. The international standard for risk management, ISO 31000, provides principles and generic guidelines on managing risks faced by organizations.[4]

Definitions of risk[edit]

Oxford English Dictionary[edit]

Firefighters are exposed to risks of fire and building collapse during their work

The Oxford English Dictionary (OED) cites the earliest use of the word in English (in the spelling of risque from its French original, ‘risque’) as of 1621, and the spelling as risk from 1655. While including several other definitions, the OED 3rd edition defines risk as:

(Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or
welcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility.[5]

The Cambridge Advanced Learner’s Dictionary gives a simple summary, defining risk as “the possibility of something bad happening”.[1]

International Organization for Standardization[edit]

The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Guide 73 provides basic vocabulary to develop common understanding on risk management concepts and terms across different applications. ISO Guide 73:2009 defines risk as:

effect of uncertainty on objectives

Note 1: An effect is a deviation from the expected – positive or negative.

Note 2: Objectives can have different aspects (such as financial, health and safety, and environmental goals) and can apply at different levels (such as strategic, organization-wide, project, product and process).

Note 3: Risk is often characterized by reference to potential events and consequences or a combination of these.

Note 4: Risk is often expressed in terms of a combination of the consequences of an event (including changes in circumstances) and the associated likelihood of occurrence.

Note 5: Uncertainty is the state, even partial, of deficiency of information related to, understanding or knowledge of, an event, its consequence, or likelihood.[3]

This definition was developed by an international committee representing over 30 countries and is based on the input of several thousand subject matter experts. It was first adopted in 2002. Its complexity reflects the difficulty of satisfying fields that use the term risk in different ways. Some restrict the term to negative impacts (“downside risks”), while others include positive impacts (“upside risks”).

ISO 31000:2018 “Risk management — Guidelines” uses the same definition with a simpler set of notes.[4]

Other[edit]

Many other definitions of risk have been influential:

“Source of harm”. The earliest use of the word “risk” was as a synonym for the much older word “hazard”, meaning a potential source of harm. This definition comes from Blount’s “Glossographia” (1661)[6] and was the main definition in the OED 1st (1914) and 2nd (1989) editions. Modern equivalents refer to “unwanted events” [7] or “something bad that might happen”.[1]
“Chance of harm”. This definition comes from Johnson’s “Dictionary of the English Language” (1755), and has been widely paraphrased, including “possibility of loss” [5] or “probability of unwanted events”.[7]
“Uncertainty about loss”. This definition comes from Willett’s “Economic Theory of Risk and Insurance” (1901).[8] This links “risk” to “uncertainty”, which is a broader term than chance or probability.
“Measurable uncertainty”. This definition comes from Knight’s “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit” (1921).[9] It allows “risk” to be used equally for positive and negative outcomes. In insurance, risk involves situations with unknown outcomes but known probability distributions.[10]
“Volatility of return”. Equivalence between risk and variance of return was first identified in Markovitz’s “Portfolio Selection” (1952).[11] In finance, volatility of return is often equated to risk.[12]
“Statistically expected loss”. The expected value of loss was used to define risk by Wald (1939) in what is now known as decision theory.[13] The probability of an event multiplied by its magnitude was proposed as a definition of risk for the planning of the Delta Works in 1953, a flood protection program in the Netherlands.[14] It was adopted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1975),[15] and remains widely used.[7]
“Likelihood and severity of events”. The “triplet” definition of risk as “scenarios, probabilities and consequences” was proposed by Kaplan & Garrick (1981).[16] Many definitions refer to the likelihood/probability of events/effects/losses of different severity/consequence, e.g. ISO Guide 73 Note 4.[3]
“Consequences and associated uncertainty”. This was proposed by Kaplan & Garrick (1981).[16] This definition is preferred in Bayesian analysis, which sees risk as the combination of events and uncertainties about them.[17]
“Uncertain events affecting objectives”. This definition was adopted by the Association for Project Management (1997).[18][19] With slight rewording it became the definition in ISO Guide 73.[3]
“Uncertainty of outcome”. This definition was adopted by the UK Cabinet Office (2002)[20] to encourage innovation to improve public services. It allowed “risk” to describe either “positive opportunity or negative threat of actions and events”.
“Asset, threat and vulnerability”. This definition comes from the Threat Analysis Group (2010) in the context of computer security.[21]
“Human interaction with uncertainty”. This definition comes from Cline (2015)[22] in the context of adventure education.

Some resolve these differences by arguing that the definition of risk is subjective. For example:

No definition is advanced as the correct one, because there is no one definition that is suitable for all problems. Rather, the choice of definition is a political one, expressing someone’s views regarding the importance of different adverse effects in a particular situation.[23]

The Society for Risk Analysis concludes that “experience has shown that to agree on one unified set of definitions is not realistic”. The solution is “to allow for different perspectives on fundamental concepts and make a distinction between overall qualitative definitions and their associated measurements.”[2]

Practice areas[edit]

The understanding of risk, the common methods of management, the measurements of risk and even the definition of risk differ in different practice areas. This section provides links to more detailed articles on these areas.

Business risk[edit]

Business risks arise from uncertainty about the profit of a commercial business due to unwanted events such as changes in tastes, changing preferences of consumers, strikes, increased competition, changes in government policy, obsolescence etc.

Business risks are controlled using techniques of risk management. In many cases they may be managed by intuitive steps to prevent or mitigate risks, by following regulations or standards of good practice, or by insurance. Enterprise risk management includes the methods and processes used by organizations to manage risks and seize opportunities related to the achievement of their objectives;
see also Financial risk management § Corporate finance.

Economic risk[edit]

Economics is concerned with the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services. Economic risk arises from uncertainty about economic outcomes. For example, economic risk may be the chance that macroeconomic conditions like exchange rates, government regulation, or political stability will affect an investment or a company’s prospects.[24]

In economics, as in finance, risk is often defined as quantifiable uncertainty about gains and losses.

Environmental risk[edit]

Environmental risk arises from environmental hazards or environmental issues.

In the environmental context, risk is defined as “The chance of harmful effects to human health or to ecological systems”.[25]

Environmental risk assessment aims to assess the effects of stressors, often chemicals, on the local environment.[26]

Financial risk[edit]

Finance is concerned with money management and acquiring funds.[27] Financial risk arises from uncertainty about financial returns. It includes market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and operational risk.

In finance, risk is the possibility that the actual return on an investment will be different from its expected return.[28] This includes not only «downside risk» (returns below expectations, including the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment) but also «upside risk» (returns that exceed expectations). In Knight’s definition, risk is often defined as quantifiable uncertainty about gains and losses. This contrasts with Knightian uncertainty, which cannot be quantified.

Financial risk modeling determines the aggregate risk in a financial portfolio. Modern portfolio theory measures risk using the variance (or standard deviation) of asset prices. More recent risk measures include value at risk.

Because investors are generally risk averse, investments with greater inherent risk must promise higher expected returns.[29]

Financial risk management uses financial instruments to manage exposure to risk. It includes the use of a hedge to offset risks by adopting a position in an opposing market or investment.

In financial audit, audit risk refers to the potential that an audit report may fail to detect material misstatement either due to error or fraud.

Health risk[edit]

Health risks arise from disease and other biological hazards.

Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution, patterns and determinants of health and disease. It is a cornerstone of public health, and shapes policy decisions by identifying risk factors for disease and targets for preventive healthcare.

In the context of public health, risk assessment is the process of characterizing the nature and likelihood of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain human activities. Health risk assessment can be mostly qualitative or can include statistical estimates of probabilities for specific populations.

A health risk assessment (also referred to as a health risk appraisal and health & well-being assessment) is a questionnaire screening tool, used to provide individuals with an evaluation of their health risks and quality of life

Health, safety, and environment risks[edit]

Health, safety, and environment (HSE) are separate practice areas; however, they are often linked. The reason is typically to do with organizational management structures; however, there are strong links among these disciplines. One of the strongest links is that a single risk event may have impacts in all three areas, albeit over differing timescales. For example, the uncontrolled release of radiation or a toxic chemical may have immediate short-term safety consequences, more protracted health impacts, and much longer-term environmental impacts. Events such as Chernobyl, for example, caused immediate deaths, and in the longer term, deaths from cancers, and left a lasting environmental impact leading to birth defects, impacts on wildlife, etc.

Information technology risk[edit]

Information technology (IT) is the use of computers to store, retrieve, transmit, and manipulate data. IT risk (or cyber risk) arises from the potential that a threat may exploit a vulnerability to breach security and cause harm. IT risk management applies risk management methods to IT to manage IT risks. Computer security is the protection of IT systems by managing IT risks.

Information security is the practice of protecting information by mitigating information risks. While IT risk is narrowly focused on computer security, information risks extend to other forms of information (paper, microfilm).

Insurance risk[edit]

Insurance is a risk treatment option which involves risk sharing. It can be considered as a form of contingent capital and is akin to purchasing an option in which the buyer pays a small premium to be protected from a potential large loss.

Insurance risk is often taken by insurance companies, who then bear a pool of risks including market risk, credit risk, operational risk, interest rate risk, mortality risk, longevity risks, etc.[30]

The term “risk” has a long history in insurance and has acquired several specialised definitions, including “the subject-matter of an insurance contract”, “an insured peril” as well as the more common “possibility of an event occurring which causes injury or loss”.[31]

Occupational risk[edit]

Occupational health and safety is concerned with occupational hazards experienced in the workplace.

The Occupational Health and Safety Assessment Series (OHSAS) standard OHSAS 18001 in 1999 defined risk as the “combination of the likelihood and consequence(s) of a specified hazardous event occurring”. In 2018 this was replaced by ISO 45001 “Occupational health and safety management systems”, which use the ISO Guide 73 definition.

Project risk[edit]

A project is an individual or collaborative undertaking planned to achieve a specific aim. Project risk is defined as, «an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives”. Project risk management aims to increase the likelihood and impact of positive events and decrease the likelihood and impact of negative events in the project.[32] [33]

Safety risk[edit]

Harbor sign warning visitors that use of the walkway is «at your own risk»

Safety is concerned with a variety of hazards that may result in accidents causing harm to people, property and the environment. In the safety field, risk is typically defined as the “likelihood and severity of hazardous events”. Safety risks are controlled using techniques of risk management.

A high reliability organisation (HRO) involves complex operations in environments where catastrophic accidents could occur. Examples include aircraft carriers, air traffic control, aerospace and nuclear power stations. Some HROs manage risk in a highly quantified way. The technique is usually referred to as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). See WASH-1400 for an example of this approach. The incidence rate can also be reduced due to the provision of better occupational health and safety programmes [34]

Security risk[edit]

Security is freedom from, or resilience against, potential harm caused by others.

A security risk is «any event that could result in the compromise of organizational assets i.e. the unauthorized use, loss, damage, disclosure or modification of organizational assets for the profit, personal interest or political interests of individuals, groups or other entities.»[35]

Security risk management involves protection of assets from harm caused by deliberate acts.

Assessment and management of risk[edit]

Risk management[edit]

Risk is ubiquitous in all areas of life and we all manage these risks, consciously or intuitively, whether we are managing a large organization or simply crossing the road. Intuitive risk management is addressed under the psychology of risk below.

Risk management refers to a systematic approach to managing risks, and sometimes to the profession that does this. A general definition is that risk management consists of “coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk».[3]

ISO 31000, the international standard for risk management,[4] describes a risk management process that consists of the following elements:

Communicating and consulting
Establishing the scope, context and criteria
Risk assessment — recognising and characterising risks, and evaluating their significance to support decision-making. This includes risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation.
Risk treatment — selecting and implementing options for addressing risk.
Monitoring and reviewing
Recording and reporting

In general, the aim of risk management is to assist organizations in “setting strategy, achieving objectives and making informed decisions”.[4] The outcomes should be “scientifically sound, cost-effective, integrated actions that [treat] risks while taking into account social, cultural, ethical, political, and legal considerations”.[36]

In contexts where risks are always harmful, risk management aims to “reduce or prevent risks”.[36] In the safety field it aims “to protect employees, the general public, the environment, and company assets, while avoiding business interruptions”.[37]

For organizations whose definition of risk includes “upside” as well as “downside” risks, risk management is “as much about identifying opportunities as avoiding or mitigating losses”.[38] It then involves “getting the right balance between innovation and change on the one hand, and avoidance of shocks and crises on the other”.[39]

Risk assessment[edit]

Risk assessment is a systematic approach to recognising and characterising risks, and evaluating their significance, in order to support decisions about how to manage them. ISO 31000 defines it in terms of its components as “the overall process of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation”.[4]

Risk assessment can be qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative:[4]

Qualitative approaches are based on qualitative descriptions of risks and rely on judgement to evaluate their significance.
Semi-quantitative approaches use numerical rating scales to group the consequences and probabilities of events into bands such as “high”, “medium” and “low”. They may use a risk matrix to evaluate the significance of particular combinations of probability and consequence.
Quantitative approaches, including Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), estimate probabilities and consequences in appropriate units, combine them into risk metrics, and evaluate them using numerical risk criteria.

The specific steps vary widely in different practice areas.

Risk identification[edit]

Risk identification is “the process of finding, recognizing and recording risks”. It “involves the identification of risk sources, events, their causes and their potential consequences.”[3]

ISO 31000 describes it as the first step in a risk assessment process, preceding risk analysis and risk evaluation.[4] In safety contexts, where risk sources are known as hazards, this step is known as “hazard identification”.[40]

There are many different methods for identifying risks, including:[41]

Checklists or taxonomies based on past data or theoretical models.
Evidence-based methods, such as literature reviews and analysis of historical data.
Team-based methods that systematically consider possible deviations from normal operations, e.g. HAZOP, FMEA and SWIFT.
Empirical methods, such as testing and modelling to identify what might happen under particular circumstances.
Techniques encouraging imaginative thinking about possibilities of the future, such as scenario analysis.
Expert-elicitation methods such as brainstorming, interviews and audits.

Sometimes, risk identification methods are limited to finding and documenting risks that are to be analysed and evaluated elsewhere. However, many risk identification methods also consider whether control measures are sufficient and recommend improvements. Hence they function as stand-alone qualitative risk assessment techniques.

Risk analysis[edit]

Risk analysis is about developing an understanding of the risk. ISO defines it as “the process to comprehend the nature of risk and to determine the level of risk”.[3] In the ISO 31000 risk assessment process, risk analysis follows risk identification and precedes risk evaluation. However, these distinctions are not always followed.

Risk analysis may include:[41]

Determining the sources, causes and drivers of risk
Investigating the effectiveness of existing controls
Analysing possible consequences and their likelihood
Understanding interactions and dependencies between risks
Determining measures of risk
Verifying and validating results
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Risk analysis often uses data on the probabilities and consequences of previous events. Where there have been few such events, or in the context of systems that are not yet operational and therefore have no previous experience, various analytical methods may be used to estimate the probabilities and consequences:

Proxy or analogue data from other contexts, presumed to be similar in some aspects of risk.
Theoretical models, such as Monte Carlo simulation and Quantitative risk assessment software.
Logical models, such as Bayesian networks, fault tree analysis and event tree analysis
Expert judgement, such as absolute probability judgement or the Delphi method.

Risk evaluation and risk criteria[edit]

Risk evaluation involves comparing estimated levels of risk against risk criteria to determine the significance of the risk and make decisions about risk treatment actions.[41]

In most activities, risks can be reduced by adding further controls or other treatment options, but typically this increases cost or inconvenience. It is rarely possible to eliminate risks altogether without discontinuing the activity. Sometimes it is desirable to increase risks to secure valued benefits. Risk criteria are intended to guide decisions on these issues.[42]

Types of criteria include:[41]

Criteria that define the level of risk that can be accepted in pursuit of objectives, sometimes known as risk appetite, and evaluated by risk/reward analysis.[12]
Criteria that determine whether further controls are needed, such as benefit-cost ratio.
Criteria that decide between different risk management options, such as multiple-criteria decision analysis.

The simplest framework for risk criteria is a single level which divides acceptable risks from those that need treatment. This gives attractively simple results but does not reflect the uncertainties involved both in estimating risks and in defining the criteria.

The tolerability of risk framework, developed by the UK Health and Safety Executive, divides risks into three bands:[43]

Unacceptable risks – only permitted in exceptional circumstances.
Tolerable risks – to be kept as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP), taking into account the costs and benefits of further risk reduction.
Broadly acceptable risks – not normally requiring further reduction.

Descriptions of risk[edit]

There are many different risk metrics that can be used to describe or “measure” risk.

Triplets[edit]

Risk is often considered to be a set of triplets[16] (also described as a vector[12]):

{displaystyle {text{R}}=<{text{s}}_{text{i}}{,p}_{text{i}}{,x}_{text{i}}>} for i = 1,2,….,N

where:

{displaystyle {text{s}}_{text{i}}} is a scenario describing a possible event
{displaystyle {text{p}}_{text{i}}} is the probability of the scenario
{displaystyle {text{x}}_{text{i}}} is the consequence of the scenario
{displaystyle {text{N}}} is the number of scenarios chosen to describe the risk

These are the answers to the three fundamental questions asked by a risk analysis:

What can happen?
How likely is it to happen?
If it does happen, what would the consequences be?

Risks expressed in this way can be shown in a table or risk register. They may be quantitative or qualitative, and can include positive as well as negative consequences.

The scenarios can be plotted in a consequence/likelihood matrix (or risk matrix). These typically divide consequences and likelihoods into 3 to 5 bands. Different scales can be used for different types of consequences (e.g. finance, safety, environment etc.), and can include positive as well as negative consequences.[41]

An updated version[17] recommends the following general description of risk:

{displaystyle {text{R}}=({text{A, C, U, P, K}})}

where:

{displaystyle {text{A}}} is an event that might occur
{displaystyle {text{C}}} is the consequences of the event
{displaystyle {text{U}}} is an assessment of uncertainties
{displaystyle {text{P}}} is a knowledge-based probability of the event
{displaystyle {text{K}}} is the background knowledge that U and P are based on

Probability distributions[edit]

If all the consequences are expressed in the same units (or can be converted into a consistent loss function), the risk can be expressed as a probability density function describing the “uncertainty about outcome”:

{displaystyle {text{R}}={text{p(x)}}}

This can also be expressed as a cumulative distribution function (CDF) (or S curve[41]).

One way of highlighting the tail of this distribution is by showing the probability of exceeding given losses, known as a complementary cumulative distribution function, plotted on logarithmic scales. Examples include frequency-number (FN) diagrams, showing the annual frequency of exceeding given numbers of fatalities.[41]

A simple way of summarising the size of the distribution’s tail is the loss with a certain probability of exceedance, such as the Value at Risk.

Expected values[edit]

Risk is often measured as the expected value of the loss. This combines the probabilities and consequences into a single value. See also Expected utility. The simplest case is a binary possibility of Accident or No accident. The associated formula for calculating risk is then:

{text{R}}=({text{probability of the accident occurring}})times ({text{expected loss in case of the accident}})

For example, if there is a probability of 0.01 of suffering an accident with a loss of $1000, then total risk is a loss of $10, the product of 0.01 and $1000.

In a situation with several possible accident scenarios, total risk is the sum of the risks for each scenario, provided that the outcomes are comparable:

{displaystyle {text{R}}=sum _{text{i=1 to N}}{text{p}}_{text{i}}{text{x}}_{text{i}}} (terms defined above)

In statistical decision theory, the risk function is defined as the expected value of a given loss function as a function of the decision rule used to make decisions in the face of uncertainty.

A disadvantage of defining risk as the product of impact and probability is that it presumes, unrealistically, that decision-makers are risk-neutral. A risk-neutral person’s utility is proportional to the expected value of the payoff. For example, a risk-neutral person would consider 20% chance of winning $1 million exactly as desirable as getting a certain $200,000. However, most decision-makers are not actually risk-neutral and would not consider these equivalent choices.[12]

Volatility[edit]

In finance, volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Modern portfolio theory measures risk using the variance (or standard deviation) of asset prices. The risk is then:

{displaystyle {text{R}}=sigma }

The beta coefficient measures the volatility of an individual asset to overall market changes. This is the asset’s contribution to systematic risk, which cannot be eliminated by portfolio diversification. It is the covariance between the asset’s return ri and the market return rm, expressed as a fraction of the market variance:[44]

{displaystyle beta _{i}={frac {sigma _{im}}{sigma _{m}^{2}}}={frac {mathrm {Cov} (r_{i},r_{m})}{mathrm {Var} (r_{m})}}}

Outcome frequencies[edit]

Risks of discrete events such as accidents are often measured as outcome frequencies, or expected rates of specific loss events per unit time. When small, frequencies are numerically similar to probabilities, but have dimensions of [1/time] and can sum to more than 1. Typical outcomes expressed this way include:[45]

Individual risk — the frequency of a given level of harm to an individual.[46] It often refers to the expected annual probability of death. Where risk criteria refer to the individual risk, the risk assessment must use this metric.
Group (or societal risk) – the relationship between the frequency and the number of people suffering harm.[46]
Frequencies of property damage or total loss.
Frequencies of environmental damage such as oil spills.

Relative risk[edit]

In health, the relative risk is the ratio of the probability of an outcome in an exposed group to the probability of an outcome in an unexposed group.

Psychology of risk[edit]

Risk perception[edit]

Intuitive risk assessment[edit]

An understanding that future events are uncertain and a particular concern about harmful ones may arise in anyone living in a community, experiencing seasons, hunting animals or growing crops. Most adults therefore have an intuitive understanding of risk. This may not be exclusive to humans.[47]

In ancient times, the dominant belief was in divinely determined fates, and attempts to influence the gods may be seen as early forms of risk management. Early uses of the word ‘risk’ coincided with an erosion of belief in divinely ordained fate.[48]

Risk perception is the subjective judgement that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. At its most basic, the perception of risk is an intuitive form of risk analysis.[49]

Heuristics and biases[edit]

Intuitive understanding of risk differs in systematic ways from accident statistics. When making judgements about uncertain events, people rely on a few heuristic principles, which convert the task of estimating probabilities to simpler judgements. These heuristics are useful but suffer from systematic biases.[50]

The “availability heuristic” is the process of judging the probability of an event by the ease with which instances come to mind. In general, rare but dramatic causes of death are over-estimated while common unspectacular causes are under-estimated.[51]

An “availability cascade” is a self-reinforcing cycle in which public concern about relatively minor events is amplified by media coverage until the issue becomes politically important.[52]

Despite the difficulty of thinking statistically, people are typically over-confident in their judgements. They over-estimate their understanding of the world and under-estimate the role of chance.[53] Even experts are over-confident in their judgements.[54]

Psychometric paradigm[edit]

The “psychometric paradigm” assumes that risk is subjectively defined by individuals, influenced by factors that can be elicited by surveys.[55] People’s perception of the risk from different hazards depends on three groups of factors:

  • Dread – the degree to which the hazard is feared or might be fatal, catastrophic, uncontrollable, inequitable, involuntary, increasing or difficult to reduce.
  • Unknown — the degree to which the hazard is unknown to those exposed, unobservable, delayed, novel or unknown to science.
  • Number of people exposed.

Hazards with high perceived risk are in general seen as less acceptable and more in need of reduction.[56]

Cultural theory of risk[edit]

Cultural Theory views risk perception as a collective phenomenon by which different cultures select some risks for attention and ignore others, with the aim of maintaining their particular way of life.[57] Hence risk perception varies according to the preoccupations of the culture. The theory distinguishes variations known as “group” (the degree of binding to social groups) and “grid” (the degree of social regulation), leading to four world-views:[58]

  • Hierarchists (high group /high grid), who tend to approve of technology providing its risks are evaluated as acceptable by experts.
  • Egalitarians (high group/low grid), who tend to object to technology because it perpetuates inequalities that harm society and the environment.
  • Individualists (low group/low grid), who tend to approve of technology and see risks as opportunities.
  • Fatalists (low group/high grid), who do not knowingly take risks but tend to accept risks that are imposed on them

Cultural Theory helps explain why it can be difficult for people with different world-views to agree about whether a hazard is acceptable, and why risk assessments may be more persuasive for some people (e.g. hierarchists) than others. However, there is little quantitative evidence that shows cultural biases are strongly predictive of risk perception.[59]

Risk and emotion[edit]

The importance of emotion in risk[edit]

While risk assessment is often described as a logical, cognitive process, emotion also has a significant role in determining how people react to risks and make decisions about them.[60] Some argue that intuitive emotional reactions are the predominant method by which humans evaluate risk. A purely statistical approach to disasters lacks emotion and thus fails to convey the true meaning of disasters and fails to motivate proper action to prevent them.[61] This is consistent with psychometric research showing the importance of “dread” (an emotion) alongside more logical factors such as the number of people exposed.

The field of behavioural economics studies human risk-aversion, asymmetric regret, and other ways that human financial behaviour varies from what analysts call «rational». Recognizing and respecting the irrational influences on human decision making may improve naive risk assessments that presume rationality but in fact merely fuse many shared biases.

The affect heuristic[edit]

The “affect heuristic” proposes that judgements and decision-making about risks are guided, either consciously or unconsciously, by the positive and negative feelings associated with them. [62] This can explain why judgements about risks are often inversely correlated with judgements about benefits. Logically, risk and benefit are distinct entities, but it seems that both are linked to an individual’s feeling about a hazard.[63]

Fear, anxiety and risk[edit]

Worry or anxiety is an emotional state that is stimulated by anticipation of a future negative outcome, or by uncertainty about future outcomes. It is therefore an obvious accompaniment to risk, and is initiated by many hazards and linked to increases in perceived risk. It may be a natural incentive for risk reduction. However, worry sometimes triggers behaviour that is irrelevant or even increases objective measurements of risk.[64]

Fear is a more intense emotional response to danger, which increases the perceived risk. Unlike anxiety, it appears to dampen efforts at risk minimisation, possibly because it provokes a feeling of helplessness.[65]

Dread risk[edit]

It is common for people to dread some risks but not others: They tend to be very afraid of epidemic diseases, nuclear power plant failures, and plane accidents but are relatively unconcerned about some highly frequent and deadly events, such as traffic crashes, household accidents, and medical errors. One key distinction of dreadful risks seems to be their potential for catastrophic consequences,[66] threatening to kill a large number of people within a short period of time.[67] For example, immediately after the 11 September attacks, many Americans were afraid to fly and took their car instead, a decision that led to a significant increase in the number of fatal crashes in the time period following the 9/11 event compared with the same time period before the attacks.[68][69]

Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain why people fear dread risks. First, the psychometric paradigm suggests that high lack of control, high catastrophic potential, and severe consequences account for the increased risk perception and anxiety associated with dread risks. Second, because people estimate the frequency of a risk by recalling instances of its occurrence from their social circle or the media, they may overvalue relatively rare but dramatic risks because of their overpresence and undervalue frequent, less dramatic risks.[69] Third, according to the preparedness hypothesis, people are prone to fear events that have been particularly threatening to survival in human evolutionary history.[70] Given that in most of human evolutionary history people lived in relatively small groups, rarely exceeding 100 people,[71] a dread risk, which kills many people at once, could potentially wipe out one’s whole group. Indeed, research found[72] that people’s fear peaks for risks killing around 100 people but does not increase if larger groups are killed. Fourth, fearing dread risks can be an ecologically rational strategy.[73] Besides killing a large number of people at a single point in time, dread risks reduce the number of children and young adults who would have potentially produced offspring. Accordingly, people are more concerned about risks killing younger, and hence more fertile, groups.[74]

Outrage[edit]

Outrage is a strong moral emotion, involving anger over an adverse event coupled with an attribution of blame towards someone perceived to have failed to do what they should have done to prevent it. Outrage is the consequence of an event, involving a strong belief that risk management has been inadequate. Looking forward, it may greatly increase the perceived risk from a hazard.[75]

Human factors[edit]

One of the growing areas of focus in risk management is the field of human factors where behavioural and organizational psychology underpin our understanding of risk based decision making. This field considers questions such as «how do we make risk based decisions?», «why are we irrationally more scared of sharks and terrorists than we are of motor vehicles and medications?»

In decision theory, regret (and anticipation of regret) can play a significant part in decision-making, distinct from risk aversion[76][77](preferring the status quo in case one becomes worse off).

Framing[78] is a fundamental problem with all forms of risk assessment. In particular, because of bounded rationality (our brains get overloaded, so we take mental shortcuts), the risk of extreme events is discounted because the probability is too low to evaluate intuitively. As an example, one of the leading causes of death is road accidents caused by drunk driving – partly because any given driver frames the problem by largely or totally ignoring the risk of a serious or fatal accident.

For instance, an extremely disturbing event (an attack by hijacking, or moral hazards) may be ignored in analysis despite the fact it has occurred and has a nonzero probability. Or, an event that everyone agrees is inevitable may be ruled out of analysis due to greed or an unwillingness to admit that it is believed to be inevitable. These human tendencies for error and wishful thinking often affect even the most rigorous applications of the scientific method and are a major concern of the philosophy of science.

All decision-making under uncertainty must consider cognitive bias, cultural bias, and notational bias: No group of people assessing risk is immune to «groupthink»: acceptance of obviously wrong answers simply because it is socially painful to disagree, where there are conflicts of interest.

Framing involves other information that affects the outcome of a risky decision. The right prefrontal cortex has been shown to take a more global perspective[79] while greater left prefrontal activity relates to local or focal processing.[80]

From the Theory of Leaky Modules[81] McElroy and Seta proposed that they could predictably alter the framing effect by the selective manipulation of regional prefrontal activity with finger tapping or monaural listening.[82] The result was as expected. Rightward tapping or listening had the effect of narrowing attention such that the frame was ignored. This is a practical way of manipulating regional cortical activation to affect risky decisions, especially because directed tapping or listening is easily done.

Psychology of risk taking[edit]

A growing area of research has been to examine various psychological aspects of risk taking. Researchers typically run randomised experiments with a treatment and control group to ascertain the effect of different psychological factors that may be associated with risk taking.[83] Thus, positive and negative feedback about past risk taking can affect future risk taking. In an experiment, people who were led to believe they are very competent at decision making saw more opportunities in a risky choice and took more risks, while those led to believe they were not very competent saw more threats and took fewer risks.[84]

Other considerations[edit]

Risk and uncertainty[edit]

In his seminal work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Frank Knight (1921) established the distinction between risk and uncertainty.

… Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The term «risk,» as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different. … The essential fact is that «risk» means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomenon depending on which of the two is really present and operating. … It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or «risk» proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. We … accordingly restrict the term «uncertainty» to cases of the non-quantitive type.:[85]

Thus, Knightian uncertainty is immeasurable, not possible to calculate, while in the Knightian sense risk is measurable.

Another distinction between risk and uncertainty is proposed by Douglas Hubbard:[86][12]

Uncertainty: The lack of complete certainty, that is, the existence of more than one possibility. The «true» outcome/state/result/value is not known.
Measurement of uncertainty: A set of probabilities assigned to a set of possibilities. Example: «There is a 60% chance this market will double in five years»
Risk: A state of uncertainty where some of the possibilities involve a loss, catastrophe, or other undesirable outcome.
Measurement of risk: A set of possibilities each with quantified probabilities and quantified losses. Example: «There is a 40% chance the proposed oil well will be dry with a loss of $12 million in exploratory drilling costs».

In this sense, one may have uncertainty without risk but not risk without uncertainty. We can be uncertain about the winner of a contest, but unless we have some personal stake in it, we have no risk. If we bet money on the outcome of the contest, then we have a risk. In both cases there are more than one outcome. The measure of uncertainty refers only to the probabilities assigned to outcomes, while the measure of risk requires both probabilities for outcomes and losses quantified for outcomes.

Mild Versus Wild Risk[edit]

Benoit Mandelbrot distinguished between «mild» and «wild» risk and argued that risk assessment and analysis must be fundamentally different for the two types of risk.[87] Mild risk follows normal or near-normal probability distributions, is subject to regression to the mean and the law of large numbers, and is therefore relatively predictable. Wild risk follows fat-tailed distributions, e.g., Pareto or power-law distributions, is subject to regression to the tail (infinite mean or variance, rendering the law of large numbers invalid or ineffective), and is therefore difficult or impossible to predict. A common error in risk assessment and analysis is to underestimate the wildness of risk, assuming risk to be mild when in fact it is wild, which must be avoided if risk assessment and analysis are to be valid and reliable, according to Mandelbrot.

Risk attitude, appetite and tolerance[edit]

The terms risk attitude, appetite, and tolerance are often used similarly to describe an organisation’s or individual’s attitude towards risk-taking. One’s attitude may be described as risk-averse, risk-neutral, or risk-seeking. Risk tolerance looks at acceptable/unacceptable deviations from what is expected.[clarification needed] Risk appetite looks at how much risk one is willing to accept. There can still be deviations that are within a risk appetite. For example, recent research finds that insured individuals are significantly likely to divest from risky asset holdings in response to a decline in health, controlling for variables such as income, age, and out-of-pocket medical expenses.[88]

Gambling is a risk-increasing investment, wherein money on hand is risked for a possible large return, but with the possibility of losing it all. Purchasing a lottery ticket is a very risky investment with a high chance of no return and a small chance of a very high return. In contrast, putting money in a bank at a defined rate of interest is a risk-averse action that gives a guaranteed return of a small gain and precludes other investments with possibly higher gain. The possibility of getting no return on an investment is also known as the rate of ruin.

Risk compensation is a theory which suggests that people typically adjust their behavior in response to the perceived level of risk, becoming more careful where they sense greater risk and less careful if they feel more protected.[89] By way of example, it has been observed that motorists drove faster when wearing seatbelts and closer to the vehicle in front when the vehicles were fitted with anti-lock brakes.

Risk and autonomy[edit]

The experience of many people who rely on human services for support is that ‘risk’ is often used as a reason to prevent them from gaining further independence or fully accessing the community, and that these services are often unnecessarily risk averse.[90] «People’s autonomy used to be compromised by institution walls, now it’s too often our risk management practices», according to John O’Brien.[91] Michael Fischer and Ewan Ferlie (2013) find that contradictions between formal risk controls and the role of subjective factors in human services (such as the role of emotions and ideology) can undermine service values, so producing tensions and even intractable and ‘heated’ conflict.[92]

Risk society[edit]

Anthony Giddens and Ulrich Beck argued that whilst humans have always been subjected to a level of risk – such as natural disasters – these have usually been perceived as produced by non-human forces. Modern societies, however, are exposed to risks such as pollution, that are the result of the modernization process itself. Giddens defines these two types of risks as external risks and manufactured risks. The term Risk society was coined in the 1980s and its popularity during the 1990s was both as a consequence of its links to trends in thinking about wider modernity, and also to its links to popular discourse, in particular the growing environmental concerns during the period.[citation needed]

[edit]

This is a list of books about risk issues.

Title Author(s) Year
Acceptable Risk Baruch Fischhoff, Sarah Lichtenstein, Paul Slovic, Steven L. Derby, and Ralph Keeney 1984
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk Peter L. Bernstein 1996
At risk: Natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters Piers Blaikie, Terry Cannon, Ian Davis, and Ben Wisner 1994
Building Safer Communities. Risk Governance, Spatial Planning and Responses to Natural Hazards Urbano Fra Paleo 2009
Dangerous Earth: An introduction to geologic hazards Barbara W. Murck, Brian J. Skinner, Stephen C. Porter 1998
Disasters and Democracy Rutherford H. Platt 1999
Earth Shock: Hurricanes, volcanoes, earthquakes, tornadoes and other forces of nature W. Andrew Robinson 1993
Human System Response to Disaster: An Inventory of Sociological Findings Thomas E. Drabek 1986
Judgment Under Uncertainty: heuristics and biases Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky 1982
Mapping Vulnerability: disasters, development, and people Greg Bankoff, Georg Frerks, and Dorothea Hilhorst 2004
Man and Society in Calamity: The Effects of War, Revolution, Famine, Pestilence upon Human Mind, Behavior, Social Organization and Cultural Life Pitirim Sorokin 1942
Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids Michael J.S. Belton, Thomas H. Morgan, Nalin H. Samarasinha, Donald K. Yeomans 2005
Natural Disaster Hotspots: a global risk analysis Maxx Dilley 2005
Natural Hazard Mitigation: Recasting disaster policy and planning David Godschalk, Timothy Beatley, Philip Berke, David Brower, and Edward J. Kaiser 1999
Natural Hazards: Earth’s processes as hazards, disasters, and catastrophes Edward A. Keller, and Robert H. Blodgett 2006
Normal Accidents. Living with high-risk technologies Charles Perrow 1984
Paying the Price: The status and role of insurance against natural disasters in the United States Howard Kunreuther, and Richard J. Roth 1998
Planning for Earthquakes: Risks, politics, and policy Philip R. Berke, and Timothy Beatley 1992
Practical Project Risk Management: The ATOM Methodology David Hillson and Peter Simon 2012
Reduction and Predictability of Natural Disasters John B. Rundle, William Klein, Don L. Turcotte 1996
Regions of Risk: A geographical introduction to disasters Kenneth Hewitt 1997
Risk Analysis: a quantitative guide David Vose 2008
Risk: An introduction (ISBN 978-0-415-49089-4) Bernardus Ale 2009
Risk and Culture: An essay on the selection of technical and environmental dangers Mary Douglas, and Aaron Wildavsky 1982
Socially Responsible Engineering: Justice in Risk Management (ISBN 978-0-471-78707-5) Daniel A. Vallero, and P. Aarne Vesilind 2006
Swimming with Crocodiles: The Culture of Extreme Drinking Marjana Martinic and Fiona Measham (eds.) 2008
The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture and Deviance at NASA Diane Vaughan 1997
The Environment as Hazard Ian Burton, Robert Kates, and Gilbert F. White 1978
The Social Amplification of Risk Nick Pidgeon, Roger E. Kasperson, and Paul Slovic 2003
What is a Disaster? New answers to old questions Ronald W. Perry, and Enrico Quarantelli 2005
Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Red Book Series) Ali Chavoshian, and Kuniyoshi Takeuchi 2013
The Risk Factor: Why Every Organization Needs Big Bets, Bold Characters, and the Occasional Spectacular Failure Deborah Perry Piscione 2014

See also[edit]

  • Ambiguity aversion
  • Audit risk
  • Benefit shortfall
  • Civil defence
  • Countermeasure
  • Early case assessment
  • External risk
  • Enterprise risk
  • Event chain methodology
  • Financial risk
  • Fuel price risk management
  • Global catastrophic risk
  • Hazard (risk)
  • Identity resolution
  • Information assurance
  • Inherent risk
  • Inherent risk (accounting)
  • International Risk Governance Council
  • ISO/PAS 28000
  • IT risk
  • Legal risk
  • Life-critical system
  • Liquidity risk
  • Loss aversion
  • Moral hazard
  • Operational risk
  • Preventive maintenance
  • Probabilistic risk assessment
  • Process risk
  • Reputational risk
  • Reliability engineering
  • Risk analysis
  • Risk assessment
  • Risk compensation
    • Peltzman effect
  • Risk management
  • Risk-neutral measure
  • Risk perception
  • Risk register
  • Sampling risk
  • Systemic risk
  • Systematic risk
  • Uncertainty
  • Vulnerability

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Bibliography[edit]

Referred literature[edit]

  • James Franklin, 2001: The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
  • John Handmer and Paul James (2005). «Trust Us and Be Scared: The Changing Nature of Risk». Global Society. 21 (1): 119–30.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: uses authors parameter (link)
  • Niklas Luhmann, 1996: Modern Society Shocked by its Risks (= University of Hong Kong, Department of Sociology Occasional Papers 17), Hong Kong, available via HKU Scholars HUB

Books[edit]

  • Historian David A. Moss’ book When All Else Fails explains the US government’s historical role as risk manager of last resort.
  • Bernstein P. L. Against the Gods ISBN 0-471-29563-9. Risk explained and its appreciation by man traced from earliest times through all the major figures of their ages in mathematical circles.
  • Rescher, Nicholas (1983). A Philosophical Introduction to the Theory of Risk Evaluation and Measurement. University Press of America.
  • Porteous, Bruce T.; Pradip Tapadar (December 2005). Economic Capital and Financial Risk Management for Financial Services Firms and Conglomerates. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 978-1-4039-3608-0.
  • Tom Kendrick (2003). Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Failure-Proofing Your Project. AMACOM/American Management Association. ISBN 978-0-8144-0761-5.
  • Hillson D. (2007). Practical Project Risk Management: The Atom Methodology. Management Concepts. ISBN 978-1-56726-202-5.
  • Kim Heldman (2005). Project Manager’s Spotlight on Risk Management. Jossey-Bass. ISBN 978-0-7821-4411-6.
  • Dirk Proske (2008). Catalogue of risks – Natural, Technical, Social and Health Risks. Eos Transactions. Vol. 90. Springer. p. 18. Bibcode:2009EOSTr..90…18E. doi:10.1029/2009EO020009. ISBN 978-3-540-79554-4.
  • Gardner D. Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, Random House Inc. (2008) ISBN 0-7710-3299-4.
  • Novak S.Y. Extreme value methods with applications to finance. London: CRC. (2011) ISBN 978-1-43983-574-6.
  • Hopkin P. Fundamentals of Risk Management. 2nd Edition. Kogan-Page (2012) ISBN 978-0-7494-6539-1

Articles and papers[edit]

  • Cevolini, A (2015). ««Tempo e decisione. Perché Aristotele non-ha un concetto di rischio?» PDF». Divus Thomas. 118 (1): 221–249.
  • Clark, L.; Manes, F.; Antoun, N.; Sahakian, B. J.; Robbins, T. W. (2003). «The contributions of lesion laterality and lesion volume to decision-making impairment following frontal lobe damage». Neuropsychologia. 41 (11): 1474–1483. doi:10.1016/s0028-3932(03)00081-2. PMID 12849765. S2CID 46447795.
  • Cokely, E. T.; Galesic, M.; Schulz, E.; Ghazal, S.; Garcia-Retamero, R. (2012). «Measuring risk literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test» (PDF). Judgment and Decision Making. 7: 25–47.
  • Drake, R. A. (1985). «Decision making and risk taking: Neurological manipulation with a proposed consistency mediation». Contemporary Social Psychology. 11: 149–152.
  • Drake, R. A. (1985). «Lateral asymmetry of risky recommendations». Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. 11 (4): 409–417. doi:10.1177/0146167285114007. S2CID 143899523.
  • Gregory, Kent J.; Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E. (2005). «A Standard Approach to Measurement Uncertainties for Scientists and Engineers in Medicine». Australasian Physical and Engineering Sciences in Medicine. 28 (2): 131–139. doi:10.1007/bf03178705. PMID 16060321. S2CID 13018991.
  • Hansson, Sven Ove. (2007). «Risk», The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2007 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), forthcoming [1].
  • Holton, Glyn A. (2004). «Defining Risk», Financial Analysts Journal, 60 (6), 19–25. A paper exploring the foundations of risk. (PDF file).
  • Knight, F. H. (1921) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Chicago: Houghton Mifflin Company. (Cited at: [2], § I.I.26.).
  • Kruger, Daniel J., Wang, X.T., & Wilke, Andreas (2007) «Towards the development of an evolutionarily valid domain-specific risk-taking scale» Evolutionary Psychology (PDF file).
  • Metzner-Szigeth, Andreas (2009). «Contradictory approaches? On realism and constructivism in the social sciences research on risk, technology and the environment» (PDF). Futures. 41 (3): 156–170. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2008.09.017.
  • Miller, L (1985). «Cognitive risk taking after frontal or temporal lobectomy I. The synthesis of fragmented visual information». Neuropsychologia. 23 (3): 359–369. doi:10.1016/0028-3932(85)90022-3. PMID 4022303. S2CID 45154180.
  • Miller, L.; Milner, B. (1985). «Cognitive risk taking after frontal or temporal lobectomy II. The synthesis of phonemic and semantic information». Neuropsychologia. 23 (3): 371–379. doi:10.1016/0028-3932(85)90023-5. PMID 4022304. S2CID 31082509.
  • Neill, M. Allen, J. Woodhead, N. Reid, S. Irwin, L. Sanderson, H. 2008 «A Positive Approach to Risk Requires Person Centred Thinking» London, CSIP Personalisation Network, Department of Health. Available from: https://web.archive.org/web/20090218231745/http://networks.csip.org.uk/Personalisation/Topics/Browse/Risk/ [Accessed 21 July 2008].
  • Wildavsky, Aaron; Wildavsky, Adam (2008). «Risk and Safety». In David R. Henderson (ed.). Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (2nd ed.). Indianapolis: Library of Economics and Liberty. ISBN 978-0865976658. OCLC 237794267.

External links[edit]

  • Risk – The entry of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

What Is Risk?

Risk is defined in financial terms as the chance that an outcome or investment’s actual gains will differ from an expected outcome or return. Risk includes the possibility of losing some or all of an original investment.

Quantifiably, risk is usually assessed by considering historical behaviors and outcomes. In finance, standard deviation is a common metric associated with risk. Standard deviation provides a measure of the volatility of asset prices in comparison to their historical averages in a given time frame.

Overall, it is possible and prudent to manage investing risks by understanding the basics of risk and how it is measured. Learning the risks that can apply to different scenarios and some of the ways to manage them holistically will help all types of investors and business managers to avoid unnecessary and costly losses.

Understanding Risk And Time Horizon

The Basics of Risk

Everyone is exposed to some type of risk every day—whether it’s from driving, walking down the street, investing, capital planning, or something else. An investor’s personality, lifestyle, and age are some of the top factors to consider for individual investment management and risk purposes. Each investor has a unique risk profile that determines their willingness and ability to withstand risk. In general, as investment risks rise, investors expect higher returns to compensate for taking those risks.

A fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return. The greater the amount of risk an investor is willing to take, the greater the potential return. Risks can come in various ways and investors need to be compensated for taking on additional risk. For example, a U.S. Treasury bond is considered one of the safest investments and when compared to a corporate bond, provides a lower rate of return. A corporation is much more likely to go bankrupt than the U.S. government. Because the default risk of investing in a corporate bond is higher, investors are offered a higher rate of return.

Quantifiably, risk is usually assessed by considering historical behaviors and outcomes. In finance, standard deviation is a common metric associated with risk. Standard deviation provides a measure of the volatility of a value in comparison to its historical average. A high standard deviation indicates a lot of value volatility and therefore a high degree of risk.

Individuals, financial advisors, and companies can all develop risk management strategies to help manage risks associated with their investments and business activities. Academically, there are several theories, metrics, and strategies that have been identified to measure, analyze, and manage risks. Some of these include: standard deviation, beta, Value at Risk (VaR), and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Measuring and quantifying risk often allows investors, traders, and business managers to hedge some risks away by using various strategies including diversification and derivative positions.

Key Takeaways

  • Risk takes on many forms but is broadly categorized as the chance an outcome or investment’s actual gain will differ from the expected outcome or return.
  • Risk includes the possibility of losing some or all of an investment.
  • There are several types of risk and several ways to quantify risk for analytical assessments.
  • Risk can be reduced using diversification and hedging strategies.

Riskless Securities

While it is true that no investment is fully free of all possible risks, certain securities have so little practical risk that they are considered risk-free or riskless.

Riskless securities often form a baseline for analyzing and measuring risk. These types of investments offer an expected rate of return with very little or no risk. Oftentimes, all types of investors will look to these securities for preserving emergency savings or for holding assets that need to be immediately accessible.

Examples of riskless investments and securities include certificates of deposits (CDs), government money market accounts, and U.S. Treasury bills. The 30-day U.S. Treasury bill is generally viewed as the baseline, risk-free security for financial modeling. It is backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, and, given its relatively short maturity date, has minimal interest rate exposure.

Risk and Time Horizons

Time horizon and liquidity of investments is often a key factor influencing risk assessment and risk management. If an investor needs funds to be immediately accessible, they are less likely to invest in high risk investments or investments that cannot be immediately liquidated and more likely to place their money in riskless securities.

Time horizons will also be an important factor for individual investment portfolios. Younger investors with longer time horizons to retirement may be willing to invest in higher risk investments with higher potential returns. Older investors would have a different risk tolerance since they will need funds to be more readily available.

Morningstar Risk Ratings

Morningstar is one of the premier objective agencies that affixes risk ratings to mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). An investor can match a portfolio’s risk profile with their own appetite for risk.

Types of Financial Risk

Every saving and investment action involves different risks and returns. In general, financial theory classifies investment risks affecting asset values into two categories: systematic risk and unsystematic risk. Broadly speaking, investors are exposed to both systematic and unsystematic risks. 

Systematic risks, also known as market risks, are risks that can affect an entire economic market overall or a large percentage of the total market. Market risk is the risk of losing investments due to factors, such as political risk and macroeconomic risk, that affect the performance of the overall market. Market risk cannot be easily mitigated through portfolio diversification. Other common types of systematic risk can include interest rate risk, inflation risk, currency risk, liquidity risk, country risk, and sociopolitical risk.

Unsystematic risk, also known as specific risk or idiosyncratic risk, is a category of risk that only affects an industry or a particular company. Unsystematic risk is the risk of losing an investment due to company or industry-specific hazard. Examples include a change in management, a product recall, a regulatory change that could drive down company sales, and a new competitor in the marketplace with the potential to take away market share from a company. Investors often use diversification to manage unsystematic risk by investing in a variety of assets.

In addition to the broad systematic and unsystematic risks, there are several specific types of risk, including:

Business Risk

Business risk refers to the basic viability of a business—the question of whether a company will be able to make sufficient sales and generate sufficient revenues to cover its operational expenses and turn a profit. While financial risk is concerned with the costs of financing, business risk is concerned with all the other expenses a business must cover to remain operational and functioning. These expenses include salaries, production costs, facility rent, office, and administrative expenses. The level of a company’s business risk is influenced by factors such as the cost of goods, profit margins, competition, and the overall level of demand for the products or services that it sells.

Credit or Default Risk

Credit risk is the risk that a borrower will be unable to pay the contractual interest or principal on its debt obligations. This type of risk is particularly concerning to investors who hold bonds in their portfolios. Government bonds, especially those issued by the federal government, have the least amount of default risk and, as such, the lowest returns. Corporate bonds, on the other hand, tend to have the highest amount of default risk, but also higher interest rates. Bonds with a lower chance of default are considered investment grade, while bonds with higher chances are considered high yield or junk bonds. Investors can use bond rating agencies—such as Standard and Poor’s, Fitch and Moody’s—to determine which bonds are investment-grade and which are junk.

Country Risk

Country risk refers to the risk that a country won’t be able to honor its financial commitments. When a country defaults on its obligations, it can harm the performance of all other financial instruments in that country—as well as other countries it has relations with. Country risk applies to stocks, bonds, mutual funds, options, and futures that are issued within a particular country. This type of risk is most often seen in emerging markets or countries that have a severe deficit.

Foreign-Exchange Risk

When investing in foreign countries, it’s important to consider the fact that currency exchange rates can change the price of the asset as well. Foreign exchange risk (or exchange rate risk) applies to all financial instruments that are in a currency other than your domestic currency. As an example, if you live in the U.S. and invest in a Canadian stock in Canadian dollars, even if the share value appreciates, you may lose money if the Canadian dollar depreciates in relation to the U.S. dollar.

Interest Rate Risk

Interest rate risk is the risk that an investment’s value will change due to a change in the absolute level of interest rates, the spread between two rates, in the shape of the yield curve, or in any other interest rate relationship. This type of risk affects the value of bonds more directly than stocks and is a significant risk to all bondholders. As interest rates rise, bond prices in the secondary market fall—and vice versa.

Political Risk

Political risk is the risk an investment’s returns could suffer because of political instability or changes in a country. This type of risk can stem from a change in government, legislative bodies, other foreign policy makers, or military control. Also known as geopolitical risk, the risk becomes more of a factor as an investment’s time horizon gets longer.

Counterparty Risk

Counterparty risk is the likelihood or probability that one of those involved in a transaction might default on its contractual obligation. Counterparty risk can exist in credit, investment, and trading transactions, especially for those occurring in over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Financial investment products such as stocks, options, bonds, and derivatives carry counterparty risk.

Liquidity Risk

Liquidity risk is associated with an investor’s ability to transact their investment for cash. Typically, investors will require some premium for illiquid assets which compensates them for holding securities over time that cannot be easily liquidated.

Risk vs. Reward

The risk-return tradeoff is the balance between the desire for the lowest possible risk and the highest possible returns. In general, low levels of risk are associated with low potential returns and high levels of risk are associated with high potential returns. Each investor must decide how much risk they’re willing and able to accept for a desired return. This will be based on factors such as age, income, investment goals, liquidity needs, time horizon, and personality.

The following chart shows a visual representation of the risk/return tradeoff for investing, where a higher standard deviation means a higher level or risk—as well as a higher potential return.  

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2020

It’s important to keep in mind that higher risk doesn’t automatically equate to higher returns. The risk-return tradeoff only indicates that higher risk investments have the possibility of higher returns—but there are no guarantees. On the lower-risk side of the spectrum is the risk-free rate of return—the theoretical rate of return of an investment with zero risk. It represents the interest you would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specific period of time. In theory, the risk-free rate of return is the minimum return you would expect for any investment because you wouldn’t accept additional risk unless the potential rate of return is greater than the risk-free rate.

Risk and Diversification

The most basic—and effective—strategy for minimizing risk is diversification. Diversification is based heavily on the concepts of correlation and risk. A well-diversified portfolio will consist of different types of securities from diverse industries that have varying degrees of risk and correlation with each other’s returns.

While most investment professionals agree that diversification can’t guarantee against a loss, it is the most important component to helping an investor reach long-range financial goals, while minimizing risk.

There are several ways to plan for and ensure adequate diversification including: 

  1. Spread your portfolio among many different investment vehicles—including cash, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs and other funds. Look for assets whose returns haven’t historically moved in the same direction and to the same degree. That way, if part of your portfolio is declining, the rest may still be growing.
  2. Stay diversified within each type of investment. Include securities that vary by sector, industry, region, and market capitalization. It’s also a good idea to mix styles too, such as growth, income, and value. The same goes for bonds: consider varying maturities and credit qualities.
  3. Include securities that vary in risk. You’re not restricted to picking only blue-chip stocks. In fact, the opposite is true. Picking different investments with different rates of return will ensure that large gains offset losses in other areas.

Keep in mind that portfolio diversification is not a one-time task. Investors and businesses perform regular “check-ups” or rebalancing to make sure their portfolios have a risk level that’s consistent with their financial strategy and goals.

The Bottom Line

We all face risks every day—whether we’re driving to work, surfing a 60-foot wave, investing, or managing a business. In the financial world, risk refers to the chance that an investment’s actual return will differ from what is expected—the possibility that an investment won’t do as well as you’d like, or that you’ll end up losing money.

The most effective way to manage investing risk is through regular risk assessment and diversification. Although diversification won’t ensure gains or guarantee against losses, it does provide the potential to improve returns based on your goals and target level of risk. Finding the right balance between risk and return helps investors and business managers achieve their financial goals through investments that they can be most comfortable with.

What do we mean by risk?

The possibility of suffering harm or loss; danger. noun

A factor, thing, element, or course involving uncertain danger; a hazard. noun

The danger or probability of loss to an insurer. noun

The amount that an insurance company stands to lose. noun

The variability of returns from an investment. noun

The chance of nonpayment of a debt. noun

One considered with respect to the possibility of loss. noun

To expose to a chance of loss or damage; hazard. synonym: endanger. transitive verb

To incur the risk of. transitive verb

(at risk) In an endangered state, especially from lack of proper care. idiom

To hazard; expose to the chance of injury or loss.

To venture upon; take the chances of: as, to risk a surgical operation.

Synonyms To peril, jeopard, stake. See risk, n.

Same as reesk and risp. noun

Hazard; danger; peril; exposure to mischance or harm; venture: as, at the risk of one’s life; at the risk of contagion. Common in the phrase to run a (the) risk, to incur hazard; take the chance of failure or disaster. noun

In com.: The hazard of loss of ship, goods, or other property. noun

The degree of hazard or danger upon which the premiums of insurance are calculated. noun

Hence, by extension, insurance obligation: as, our company has no risks in that city. noun

A possible adverse event or outcome

The probability of a negative outcome to a decision or event.

The magnitude of possible loss consequent to a decision or event.

(formal use in business, engineering, etc.) The potential (conventionally negative) effect of an event, determined by combining the likelihood of the event occurring with the effect should it occur.

An entity insured by an insurer or the specific uncertain events that the insurer underwrites.

Used to describe a bad or potentially disastorous situation or condition. Urban Dictionary

Used to describe someone who is good-looking, but under the age for consentual sex. Urban Dictionary

Originating in easton, connecticut.
a risk is a person who is:
rich, scene, and emo.
they go to partiees, band shows, and just chill a lot.
its a new group, like you know how schools have the popular kids, geeks, loners, etc well know they have the risks.
come on you know you know someone who is;
they just dont know it yet so tell theemmm Urban Dictionary

A game that kills friendships faster than monopoly Urban Dictionary

Best board game ever Urban Dictionary

Adj. disgusting, undesirable, dodgy or a no-go. Urban Dictionary

Can be used instead of ‘go’, ‘do’ etc. Urban Dictionary

Acronym for Reduced Income Several Kids. Urban Dictionary

A risk is a person who exhibits homo-erotic or excessively cheesy behaviour. This could be a reference to the following:
Effeminate qualities
Excessively gaudy or inappropriate clothing
Cheesy or general tacky behaviour and looks.
This can lead to different uses of the word such as ‘risky’ when pertaining to someone’s aesthetic as opposed to simply embodying a ‘risk’ in it’s true form.
‘Check that guy out! Risky bloke!’
‘That chick sounds like the biggest risk’ Urban Dictionary

Authors: Andrew Sprowl and Courtney Wileman
Views on Religion
Clubatory: Risk There are so many religions and beliefs in this world you can’t even keep track. In this, high pace, hellish lifestyle society lives and breathers each day can be quit hectic. Who has time to do things like, going to church, or open and read the Bible? The truth is, no one really. People who have lives can’t. Even if they wanted to, the closest thing they get to is searching religions on Wikipedia. That’s why I am here to say that you can go out and look. Look for a new, more exciting religion. It IS ok. One night two teenage kids devised a plan to outwit Heaven and Hell. They talked and devised a place where you go when you die. A world that is never ending. This place is between the two “known destinations”. A Clubatory if you will. If you believe in it then it believes in you. This night club is closer to Hell then heaven only in the way that sin and lust are present here. Just as an Earthy club might be. At the front of this erotic, flashing club is a notice that says “Dance at Your Own Risk”. Rightfully, the club is named risk.
Risk is jammed pack full of the hottest and sexiest people. Even if you’re not people there consider you either way. All people can dance just like they were born too. Risk also has a full bar, rave light, the deepest subwoofers and complimentary Bubble Rap floors. It’s a crazy black and red Club. With the newest and sleekest designs and architecture to help you party, trip and just rave.
Dance for eternality. Dance at your own Risk. And live the life you wished, but you never had. Urban Dictionary

риск, рисковать, отваживаться

существительное

- риск

- опасность, угроза

fire [traffic] risk — пожарная [дорожная] опасность
to reduce the risk of outbreak of nuclear war — уменьшить опасность возникновения ядерной войны
at risk — в опасности, под ударом
that policy is now at risk — эта политика находится сейчас под угрозой

- объект риска (о человеке)

poor risk — ненадёжный человек
good risk — человек, на которого можно положиться /делать ставку и т. п./
security risk — риск нарушения (системы) безопасности

- страховая сумма
- застрахованное лицо; застрахованная вещь

глагол

- рисковать (чем-л.)

to risk one’s life [one’s health, one’s fortune] — рисковать жизнью [здоровьем, состоянием]
I’d risk my life on his honesty — за его порядочность я ручаюсь головой

- отваживаться (на что-л.)

to risk a battle — отваживаться на битву
I can’t risk failure — я не могу идти на (заведомый) провал
he risked breaking his neck — он чуть не сломал шею, он вполне мог сломать себе шею

Мои примеры

Словосочетания

areas at minimal risk for flooding — области с минимальным риском затопления  
a growing realization of the risk involved — растущее осознание связанной с этим опасности  
commercial risk — коммерческий риск  
decision under risk — решение с учётом риска  
to decrease the risk of an injury — уменьшать риск травмы  
for the account and risk of (smb.) — за счет и на риск (кого-л.)  
to expose to risk — подвергнуть риску  
inflammability risk — риск воспламенения  
to risk one’s life — рисковать жизнью  
decision making under risk — принятие решений в условиях риска  
to minimize a risk — минимизировать риск  
at the risk of being ridiculed — рискуя быть осмеянным  

Примеры с переводом

Why risk your life?

Зачем рисковать своей жизнью?

She’s not afraid to run a risk.

Она не боится идти на риск.

Let’s minimize the risk.

Давайте сведём эту опасность к минимуму.

It’s not worth the risk.

Это не стоит того риска.

She risked losing everything.

Она рисковала потерять всё.

That’s an insane risk.

Это безумный риск.

He risked breaking his neck.

Он рисковал сломать себе шею.

ещё 23 примера свернуть

Возможные однокоренные слова

riskiness  — рискованность, опасность
riskful  — рискованный, опасный

Формы слова

verb
I/you/we/they: risk
he/she/it: risks
ing ф. (present participle): risking
2-я ф. (past tense): risked
3-я ф. (past participle): risked

noun
ед. ч.(singular): risk
мн. ч.(plural): risks

Other forms: risks; risked; risking

A risk is an action that holds a chance of danger or failure. Although it’s fun jump around on glaciers, the risk of falling down a crack into a freezing lake might deter you from ice climbing.

Risk comes from the French for danger. As nouns, risk and danger are close synonyms. The verb risk means to run a danger, in hopes of reward. So risk is similar to gamble. If you’re very ill, you might risk a dangerous surgery. We also use risk for money or security. You can risk your good health by working with infected patients without sterile equipment. Or you can risk your life savings on the stock market.

Definitions of risk

  1. noun

    a source of danger; a possibility of incurring loss or misfortune

  2. noun

    a venture undertaken without regard to possible loss or injury

    “he saw the rewards but not the
    risks of crime”

    synonyms:

    danger, peril

  3. noun

    the probability of becoming infected given that exposure to an infectious agent has occurred

    synonyms:

    risk of infection

    see moresee less

    type of:

    chance, probability

    a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur; a number expressing the ratio of favorable cases to the whole number of cases possible

  4. noun

    the probability of being exposed to an infectious agent

    synonyms:

    risk of exposure

    see moresee less

    type of:

    chance, probability

    a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur; a number expressing the ratio of favorable cases to the whole number of cases possible

  5. verb

    expose to a chance of loss or damage

    “We
    risked losing a lot of money in this venture”

    “Why
    risk your life?”

    synonyms:

    lay on the line, put on the line

  6. verb

    take a risk in the hope of a favorable outcome

DISCLAIMER: These example sentences appear in various news sources and books to reflect the usage of the word ‘risk’.
Views expressed in the examples do not represent the opinion of Vocabulary.com or its editors.
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«Risk-takers» redirects here. For the Canadian television program, see Risk Takers.

Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an undesirable outcome). The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome exists (or existed). Potential losses themselves may also be called «risks». Almost any human endeavor carries some risk, but some are much more risky than others.

Firefighters at work

Contents

  • 1 Historical background
  • 2 Definitions of risk
    • 2.1 Mathematical formulations
    • 2.2 Risk versus uncertainty
    • 2.3 Risk as a vector quantity
  • 3 Insurance and health risk
  • 4 Information technology risk
  • 5 Information security risk
  • 6 Economic risk
    • 6.1 In business
    • 6.2 Risk-sensitive industries
      • 6.2.1 In finance
    • 6.3 In public works
    • 6.4 In human services
  • 7 Risk in psychology
    • 7.1 Regret
    • 7.2 Framing
      • 7.2.1 Neurobiology of framing
    • 7.3 Fear as intuitive risk assessment
  • 8 Risk assessment and management
  • 9 Risk and size
  • 10 Risk in auditing
  • 11 See also
  • 12 References
  • 13 Bibliography
    • 13.1 Referred literature
    • 13.2 Books
    • 13.3 Articles and papers
  • 14 External links

Historical background

The Oxford English Dictionary cites the earliest use of the word in English (in the spelling of risque) as from 1621, and the spelling as risk from 1655. It defines risk as:

(Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility.[1]

For the sociologist Niklas Luhmann the term ‘risk’ is a neologism that appeared with the transition from traditional to modern society.[2] «In the Middle Ages the term risicum was used in highly specific contexts, above all sea trade and its ensuing legal problems of loss and damage.»[2][3] In the vernacular languages of the 16th century the words rischio and riezgo were used.[2] This was introduced to continental Europe, through interaction with Middle Eastern and North African Arab traders. In the English language the term risk appeared only in the 17th century, and «seems to be imported from continental Europe.»[2] When the terminology of risk took ground, it replaced the older notion that thought «in terms of good and bad fortune.»[2] Niklas Luhmann (1996) seeks to explain this transition: «Perhaps, this was simply a loss of plausibility of the old rhetorics of Fortuna as an allegorical figure of religious content and of prudentia as a (noble) virtue in the emerging commercial society.»[4]

Scenario analysis matured during Cold War confrontations between major powers, notably the United States and the Soviet Union. It became widespread in insurance circles in the 1970s when major oil tanker disasters forced a more comprehensive foresight.[citation needed] The scientific approach to risk entered finance in the 1960s with the advent of the capital asset pricing model and became increasingly important in the 1980s when financial derivatives proliferated. It reached general professions in the 1990s when the power of personal computing allowed for widespread data collection and numbers crunching.

Governments are using it, for example, to set standards for environmental regulation, e.g. «pathway analysis» as practiced by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

Definitions of risk

The many inconsistent and ambiguous meanings attached to «risk» lead to widespread confusion and also mean that very different approaches to risk management are taken in different fields.[5] For example:

The ISO 31000 (2009) /ISO Guide 73 definition of risk is the ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’. In this definition, uncertainties include events (which may or not happen) and uncertainties caused by a lack of information or ambiguity. This definition also includes both negative and positive impacts on objectives.
Another definition is that risks are future problems that can be avoided or mitigated, rather than current ones that must be immediately addressed.[6]
Risk can be seen as relating to the Probability of uncertain future events.[7]. For example, according to Factor Analysis of Information Risk, risk is:[7] the probable frequency and probable magnitude of future loss. In computer science this definition is used by The Open Group.[8]
OHSAS (Occupational Health & Safety Advisory Services) defines risk as the product of the probability of a hazard resulting in an adverse event, times the severity of the event.[9]
In information security risk is defined as «the potential that a given threat will exploit vulnerabilities of an asset or group of assets and thereby cause harm to the organization»,[10]
Financial risk is often defined as the unexpected variability or volatility of returns and thus includes both potential worse-than-expected as well as better-than-expected returns. References to negative risk below should be read as applying to positive impacts or opportunity (e.g., for «loss» read «loss or gain») unless the context precludes this interpretation.
The related term «hazard» is used to mean something that could cause harm.

As risk carries so many different meanings there are many formal methods used to assess or to «measure» risk. Some of the quantitative definitions of risk are well-grounded in statistics theory and lead naturally to statistical estimates, but some are more subjective. For example in many cases a critical factor is human decision making.

Even when statistical estimates are available, in many cases risk is associated with rare failures of some kind, and data may be sparse. Often, the probability of a negative event is estimated by using the frequency of past similar events or by event tree methods, but probabilities for rare failures may be difficult to estimate if an event tree cannot be formulated. This makes risk assessment difficult in hazardous industries (for example nuclear energy) where the frequency of failures is rare and harmful consequences of failure are very high.

Statistical methods may also require the use of a Cost function, which in turn often requires the calculation of the cost of the loss of human life, a difficult problem. One approach is to ask what people are willing to pay to insure against death,[11] and radiological release (e.g., GBq of radio-iodine), but as the answers depend very strongly on the circumstances it is not clear that this approach is effective.

Mathematical formulations

In statistics, the notion of risk is often modelled as the expected value of some outcome seen as undesirable. This combines the probabilities of various possible events and some assessment of the corresponding harms into a single value. (See also Expected utility.) In a formula that can be used in the simple case of a binary possibility (accident or no accident), risk is then:

 text{Risk} = (text{probability of the accident occurring}) times  (text{expected loss in case of the accident})

For example: if activity X may suffer an accident of A at a probability of 0.01 with a loss of 1000, the total risk is a loss of 10, since that is the product of 0.01 and 1 000.

In case of there being several possible accidents, risk is the sum of the all risks for the different accidents, provided that the outcomes are comparable:

 text{Risk} = sum^{Accidents}((text{probability of the accident occurring}) times  (text{expected loss in case of the accident}))

For example: if activity X may suffer an accident of A at a probability of 0.01 with a loss of 1000, and an accident of type B at probability of 0.000 001 at a loss of 2 000 000, the total risk is a loss of 12, that is 10 from accident of types A and 2 from accidents of type B.

One of the first major uses of this concept was at the planning of the Delta Works in 1953, a flood protection program in the Netherlands, with the aid of the mathematician David van Dantzig.[12] The kind of risk analysis pioneered here has become common today in fields like nuclear power, aerospace and the chemical industry.

In statistical decision theory, the risk function is defined as the expected value of a given loss function as a function of the decision rule used to make decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Risk versus uncertainty

Risk: Combination of the likelihood of an occurrence of a hazardous event or exposure(s) and the severity of injury or ill health that can be caused by the event or exposure(s)

In his seminal work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Frank Knight (1921) established the distinction between risk and uncertainty.

… Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The term «risk,» as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different. … The essential fact is that «risk» means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomenon depending on which of the two is really present and operating. … It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or «risk» proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. We … accordingly restrict the term «uncertainty» to cases of the non-quantitive type.:[13]

Thus, Knightian uncertainty is immeasurable, not possible to calculate, while in the Knightian sense risk is measurable.

Another distinction between risk and uncertainty is proposed in How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business and The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It by Doug Hubbard:[14][15]

Uncertainty: The lack of complete certainty, that is, the existence of more than one possibility. The «true» outcome/state/result/value is not known.
Measurement of uncertainty: A set of probabilities assigned to a set of possibilities. Example: «There is a 60% chance this market will double in five years»
Risk: A state of uncertainty where some of the possibilities involve a loss, catastrophe, or other undesirable outcome.
Measurement of risk: A set of possibilities each with quantified probabilities and quantified losses. Example: «There is a 40% chance the proposed oil well will be dry with a loss of $12 million in exploratory drilling costs».

In this sense, Hubbard uses the terms so that one may have uncertainty without risk but not risk without uncertainty. We can be uncertain about the winner of a contest, but unless we have some personal stake in it, we have no risk. If we bet money on the outcome of the contest, then we have a risk. In both cases there are more than one outcome. The measure of uncertainty refers only to the probabilities assigned to outcomes, while the measure of risk requires both probabilities for outcomes and losses quantified for outcomes.

Risk as a vector quantity

Hubbard also argues that defining risk as the product of impact and probability presumes (probably incorrectly) that the decision makers are risk neutral.[15] Only for a risk neutral person is the «certain monetary equivalent» exactly equal to the probability of the loss times the amount of the loss. For example, a risk neutral person would consider 20% chance of winning $1 million exactly equal to $200,000 (or a 20% chance of losing $1 million to be exactly equal to losing $200,000). However, most decision makers are not actually risk neutral and would not consider these equivalent choices. This gave rise to Prospect theory and Cumulative prospect theory. Hubbard proposes instead that risk is a kind of «vector quantity» that does not collapse the probability and magnitude of a risk by presuming anything about the risk tolerance of the decision maker. Risks are simply described as a set or function of possible loss amounts each associated with specific probabilities. How this array is collapsed into a single value cannot be done until the risk tolerance of the decision maker is quantified.

Risk can be both negative and positive, but it tends to be the negative side that people focus on. This is because some things can be dangerous, such as putting their own or someone else’s life at risk. Risks concern people as they think that they will have a negative effect on their future.

Insurance and health risk

Insurance is a risk-reducing investment in which the buyer pays a small fixed amount to be protected from a potential large loss. Gambling is a risk-increasing investment, wherein money on hand is risked for a possible large return, but with the possibility of losing it all. Purchasing a lottery ticket is a very risky investment with a high chance of no return and a small chance of a very high return. In contrast, putting money in a bank at a defined rate of interest is a risk-averse action that gives a guaranteed return of a small gain and precludes other investments with possibly higher gain.

Risks in personal health may be reduced by primary prevention actions that decrease early causes of illness or by secondary prevention actions after a person has clearly measured clinical signs or symptoms recognized as risk factors. Tertiary prevention reduces the negative impact of an already established disease by restoring function and reducing disease-related complications. Ethical medical practice requires careful discussion of risk factors with individual patients to obtain informed consent for secondary and tertiary prevention efforts, whereas public health efforts in primary prevention require education of the entire population at risk. In each case, careful communication about risk factors, likely outcomes and certainty must distinguish between causal events that must be decreased and associated events that may be merely consequences rather than causes.

In epidemiology, the lifetime risk of an effect is the cumulative incidence, also called incidence proportion over an entire lifetime.[16]

Information technology risk

Information technology risk, or IT risk, IT-related risk, is a risk related to information technology. This relatively new term due to an increasing awareness that information security is simply one facet of a multitude of risks that are relevant to IT and the real world processes it supports.

The increasing dependencies of modern society on information and computers networks (both in private and public sectors, including military)[17] [18] [19] has led to a new terms like IT risk and Cyberwarfare.

Information security risk

Information security means protecting information and information systems from unauthorized access, use, disclosure, disruption, modification, perusal, inspection, recording or destruction.[20]

Information security grew out of practices and procedures of computer security.
Information security has grown to information assurance (IA) i.e. is the practice of managing risks related to the use, processing, storage, and transmission of information or data and the systems and processes used for those purposes.
While focused dominantly on information in digital form, the full range of IA encompasses not only digital but also analog or physical form.
Information assurance is interdisciplinary and draws from multiple fields, including accounting, fraud examination, forensic science, management science, systems engineering, security engineering, and criminology, in addition to computer science.

So, IT risk is narrowly focused on computer security, while information security extends on risks related to other forms of information (paper, microfilm). Information assurance risks include the ones related to the consistency of the business information stored in IT systems and the one stored on other means and the relevant business consequences.

Economic risk

Economic risks can be manifested in lower incomes or higher expenditures than expected. The causes can be many, for instance, the hike in the price for raw materials, the lapsing of deadlines for construction of a new operating facility, disruptions in a production process, emergence of a serious competitor on the market, the loss of key personnel, the change of a political regime, or natural disasters.[21] Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce economic risk.[22]

In business

Means of assessing risk vary widely between professions. Indeed, they may define these professions; for example, a doctor manages medical risk, while a civil engineer manages risk of structural failure. A professional code of ethics is usually focused on risk assessment and mitigation (by the professional on behalf of client, public, society or life in general).

In the workplace, incidental and inherent risks exist. Incidental risks are those that occur naturally in the business but are not part of the core of the business. Inherent risks have a negative effect on the operating profit of the business.

Risk-sensitive industries

Some industries manage risk in a highly quantified and enumerated way. These include the nuclear power and aircraft industries, where the possible failure of a complex series of engineered systems could result in highly undesirable outcomes. The usual measure of risk for a class of events is then:

R = probability of the event × C

The total risk is then the product of the individual class-risks.

In the nuclear industry, consequence is often measured in terms of off-site radiological release, and this is often banded into five or six decade-wide bands.

The risks are evaluated using fault tree/event tree techniques (see safety engineering). Where these risks are low, they are normally considered to be «Broadly Acceptable». A higher level of risk (typically up to 10 to 100 times what is considered Broadly Acceptable) has to be justified against the costs of reducing it further and the possible benefits that make it tolerable—these risks are described as «Tolerable if ALARP». Risks beyond this level are classified as «Intolerable».

The level of risk deemed Broadly Acceptable has been considered by regulatory bodies in various countries—an early attempt by UK government regulator and academic F. R. Farmer used the example of hill-walking and similar activities, which have definable risks that people appear to find acceptable. This resulted in the so-called Farmer Curve of acceptable probability of an event versus its consequence.

The technique as a whole is usually referred to as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) (or Probabilistic Safety Assessment, PSA). See WASH-1400 for an example of this approach.

In finance

Main article: Financial risk

In finance, risk is the probability that an investment’s actual return will be different than expected. This includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. In a view advocated by Damodaran, risk includes not only «downside risk» but also «upside risk» (returns that exceed expectations).[23] Some regard a calculation of the standard deviation of the historical returns or average returns of a specific investment as providing some historical measure of risk; see modern portfolio theory. Financial risk may be market-dependent, determined by numerous market factors, or operational, resulting from fraudulent behavior (e.g. Bernard Madoff). Recent studies suggest that testosterone level plays a major role in risk taking during financial decisions.[24][25]

In finance, risk has no one definition, but some theorists, notably Ron Dembo, have defined quite general methods to assess risk as an expected after-the-fact level of regret. Such methods have been uniquely successful in limiting interest rate risk in financial markets. Financial markets are considered to be a proving ground for general methods of risk assessment. However, these methods are also hard to understand. The mathematical difficulties interfere with other social goods such as disclosure, valuation and transparency. In particular, it is not always obvious if such financial instruments are «hedging» (purchasing/selling a financial instrument specifically to reduce or cancel out the risk in another investment) or «speculation» (increasing measurable risk and exposing the investor to catastrophic loss in pursuit of very high windfalls that increase expected value).

As regret measures rarely reflect actual human risk-aversion, it is difficult to determine if the outcomes of such transactions will be satisfactory. Risk seeking describes an individual whose utility function’s second derivative is positive. Such an individual would willingly (actually pay a premium to) assume all risk in the economy and is hence not likely to exist.

In financial markets, one may need to measure credit risk, information timing and source risk, probability model risk, and legal risk if there are regulatory or civil actions taken as a result of some «investor’s regret». Knowing one’s risk appetite in conjunction with one’s financial well-being are most crucial.

A fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return (see modern portfolio theory). The greater the potential return one might seek, the greater the risk that one generally assumes. A free market reflects this principle in the pricing of an instrument: strong demand for a safer instrument drives its price higher (and its return proportionately lower), while weak demand for a riskier instrument drives its price lower (and its potential return thereby higher).

«For example, a US Treasury bond is considered to be one of the safest investments and, when compared to a corporate bond, provides a lower rate of return. The reason for this is that a corporation is much more likely to go bankrupt than the U.S. government. Because the risk of investing in a corporate bond is higher, investors are offered a higher rate of return.»

The most popular, and also the most vilified lately risk measurement is Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are different types of VaR — Long Term VaR, Marginal VaR, Factor VaR and Shock VaR[26] The latter is used in measuring risk during the extreme market stress conditions.

In public works

In a peer reviewed study of risk in public works projects located in twenty nations on five continents, Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (2002, 2005) documented high risks for such ventures for both costs[27] and demand.[28] Actual costs of projects were typically higher than estimated costs; cost overruns of 50% were common, overruns above 100% not uncommon. Actual demand was often lower than estimated; demand shortfalls of 25% were common, of 50% not uncommon.

Due to such cost and demand risks, cost-benefit analyses of public works projects have proved to be highly uncertain.

The main causes of cost and demand risks were found to be optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Measures identified to mitigate this type of risk are better governance through incentive alignment and the use of reference class forecasting.[29]

In human services

Huge ethical and political issues arise when human beings themselves are seen or treated as ‘risks’, or when the risk decision making of people who use human services might have an impact on that service. The experience of many people who rely on human services for support is that ‘risk’ is often used as a reason to prevent them from gaining further independence or fully accessing the community, and that these services are often unnecessarily risk averse.[30]

Risk in psychology

Regret

In decision theory, regret (and anticipation of regret) can play a significant part in decision-making, distinct from risk aversion (preferring the status quo in case one becomes worse off).

Framing

Framing[31] is a fundamental problem with all forms of risk assessment. In particular, because of bounded rationality (our brains get overloaded, so we take mental shortcuts), the risk of extreme events is discounted because the probability is too low to evaluate intuitively. As an example, one of the leading causes of death is road accidents caused by drunk driving—partly because any given driver frames the problem by largely or totally ignoring the risk of a serious or fatal accident.

For instance, an extremely disturbing event (an attack by hijacking, or moral hazards) may be ignored in analysis despite the fact it has occurred and has a nonzero probability. Or, an event that everyone agrees is inevitable may be ruled out of analysis due to greed or an unwillingness to admit that it is believed to be inevitable. These human tendencies for error and wishful thinking often affect even the most rigorous applications of the scientific method and are a major concern of the philosophy of science.

All decision-making under uncertainty must consider cognitive bias, cultural bias, and notational bias: No group of people assessing risk is immune to «groupthink»: acceptance of obviously wrong answers simply because it is socially painful to disagree, where there are conflicts of interest. One effective way to solve framing problems in risk assessment or measurement (although some argue that risk cannot be measured, only assessed) is to raise others’ fears or personal ideals by way of completeness.[clarification needed How do fears solve the problem, and what does «by way of completeness» mean?]

Neurobiology of framing

Framing involves other information that affects the outcome of a risky decision. The right prefrontal cortex has been shown to take a more global perspective[32] while greater left prefrontal activity relates to local or focal processing[33]

From the Theory of Leaky Modules[34] McElroy and Seta proposed that they could predictably alter the framing effect by the selective manipulation of regional prefrontal activity with finger tapping or monaural listening.[35] The result was as expected. Rightward tapping or listening had the effect of narrowing attention such that the frame was ignored. This is a practical way of manipulating regional cortical activation to affect risky decisions, especially because directed tapping or listening is easily done.

Fear as intuitive risk assessment

For the time being, people rely on their fear and hesitation to keep them out of the most profoundly unknown circumstances.

In The Gift of Fear, Gavin de Becker argues that «True fear is a gift. It is a survival signal that sounds only in the presence of danger. Yet unwarranted fear has assumed a power over us that it holds over no other creature on Earth. It need not be this way.»

Risk could be said to be the way we collectively measure and share this «true fear»—a fusion of rational doubt, irrational fear, and a set of unquantified biases from our own experience.

The field of behavioral finance focuses on human risk-aversion, asymmetric regret, and other ways that human financial behavior varies from what analysts call «rational». Risk in that case is the degree of uncertainty associated with a return on an asset.

Recognizing and respecting the irrational influences on human decision making may do much to reduce disasters caused by naive risk assessments that pretend to rationality but in fact merely fuse many shared biases together.

Risk assessment and management

Because planned actions are subject to large cost and benefit risks, proper risk assessment and risk management for such actions are crucial to making them successful.[36]

Since risk assessment and management is essential in security management, both are tightly related. Security assessment methodologies like CRAMM contain risk assessment modules as an important part of the first steps of the methodology. On the other hand, risk assessment methodologies like Mehari evolved to become security assessment methodologies. A ISO standard on risk management (Principles and guidelines on implementation) was published under code ISO 31000 on 13 November 2009.

Risk and size

In the book Megaprojects and Risk, Professor Bent Flyvbjerg (with Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter) demonstrates that big ventures (big construction projects, big capital investments, etc.) are highly risky. For instance, such ventures typically have high cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and schedule delays, plus negative and unanticipated social and environmental impacts.[37]

Risk in auditing

The audit risk model expresses the risk of an auditor providing an inappropriate opinion of a commercial entity’s financial statements. It can be analytically expressed as:

AR = IR x CR x DR

Where AR is audit risk, IR is inherent risk, CR is control risk and DR is detection risk.

See also

  • Applied information economics
  • Adventure
  • Ambiguity
  • Ambiguity aversion
  • Attack
  • Benefit shortfall
  • Cindynics
  • Civil defense
  • Countermeasure
  • Country risk
  • Cost overrun
  • Credit risk
  • Crisis
  • Cultural Theory of risk
  • Early case assessment
  • Emergency
  • Ergonomics
  • Event chain methodology
  • Financial risk
  • Fuel price risk management
  • Fuzzy-trace theory
  • Global Risk Forum
  • Hazard
  • Hazard prevention
  • Identity resolution
  • Information Assurance
  • Information Security
  • Inherent risk
  • Insurance industry
  • Interest rate risk
  • International Risk Governance Council
  • IT risk
  • ISO 31000
  • ISO 28000
  • Legal risk
  • Life-critical system
  • Liquidity risk
  • List of books about risk
  • Loss aversion
  • Market risk
  • Operational risk
  • Optimism bias
  • Political risk
  • Preventive maintenance
  • Preventive medicine
  • Probabilistic risk assessment
  • Reference class forecasting
  • Reinvestment risk
  • Reputational risk
  • Risk analysis
  • Risk aversion
  • Riskbase
  • Risk factor (finance)
  • Risk homeostasis
  • Risk management
  • Risk-neutral measure
  • Risk perception
  • Risk register
  • Sampling risk
  • Security risk
  • Systemic risk
  • Threat
  • Uncertainty
  • Value at risk
  • Vulnerability

References

  1. ^ Oxford English Dictionary
  2. ^ a b c d e Luhmann 1996:3.
  3. ^ James Franklin, 2001: The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 274.
  4. ^ Luhmann 1996:4.
  5. ^ Douglas Hubbard The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
  6. ^ E.g. «Risk is the unwanted subset of a set of uncertain outcomes.» (Cornelius Keating).
  7. ^ a b «An Introduction to Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR)», Risk Management Insight LLC, November 2006;.
  8. ^ Technical Standard Risk Taxonomy ISBN 1-931624-77-1 Document Number: C081 Published by The Open Group, January 2009.
  9. ^ «Risk is a combination of the likelihood of an occurrence of a hazardous event or exposure(s) and the severity of injury or ill health that can be caused by the event or exposure(s)» (OHSAS 18001:2007).
  10. ^ ISO/IEC 27005:2008.
  11. ^ Landsburg, Steven (2003-03-03). «Is your life worth $10 million?». Everyday Economics (Slate). http://www.slate.com/id/2079475/. Retrieved 2008-03-17.
  12. ^ Wired Magazine, Before the levees break, page 3.
  13. ^ Frank Hyneman Knight «Risk, uncertainty and profit» pg. 19, Hart, Schaffner, and Marx Prize Essays, no. 31. Boston and New York: Houghton Mifflin. 1921.
  14. ^ Douglas Hubbard «How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business» pg. 46, John Wiley & Sons, 2007.
  15. ^ a b Douglas Hubbard «The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
  16. ^ Rychetnik L, Hawe P, Waters E, Barratt A, Frommer M (2004 July). «A glossary for evidence based public health». J Epidemiol Community Health 58: 538–45. doi:10.1136/jech.2003.011585. PMC 1732833. PMID 15194712. http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1732833.
  17. ^ Cortada, James W. (2003-12-04) The Digital Hand: How Computers Changed the Work of American Manufacturing, Transportation,​ and Retail Industries USA: Oxford University Press pp. 512 ISBN 0195165888 .
  18. ^ Cortada, James W. (2005-11-03) The Digital Hand: Volume II: How Computers Changed the Work of American Financial, Telecommunicati​ons, Media, and Entertainment Industries USA: Oxford University Press ISBN 978-0195165876 .
  19. ^ Cortada, James W. (2007-11-06) The Digital Hand, Vol 3: How Computers Changed the Work of American Public Sector Industries USA: Oxford University Press pp. 496 ISBN 978-0195165869 .
  20. ^ 44 U.S.C. § 3542(b)(1).
  21. ^ [1].
  22. ^ Flyvbjerg, B., 2008, «Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice.» European Planning Studies, vol. 16, no. 1, January, pp. 3-21.
  23. ^ Damodaran, Aswath (2003). Investment Philosophies: Successful Investment Philosophies and the Greatest Investors Who Made Them Work. Wiley. p. 15. ISBN 0-471-34503-2.
  24. ^ Sapienza P., Zingales L. and Maestripieri D. 2009. Gender differences in financial risk aversion and career choices are affected by testosterone. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
  25. ^ Apicella C. L. and all. Testosterone and financial risk preferences. Evolution and Human Behavior. Vol 29. Issue 6. 384-390.abstract.
  26. ^ Value at risk.
  27. ^ http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/JAPAASPUBLISHED.pdf.
  28. ^ http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/Traffic91PRINTJAPA.pdf.
  29. ^ http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/0406DfT-UK%20OptBiasASPUBL.pdf.
  30. ^ A Positive Approach To Risk Requires Person Centred Thinking, Neill et al, Tizard Learning Disability Review http://pierprofessional.metapress.com/content/vr700311x66j0125/
  31. ^ Amos Tversky / Daniel Kahneman, 1981. «The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.»[verification needed]
  32. ^ Schatz, J., Craft, S., Koby, M., & DeBaun, M. R. (2004). Asymmetries in visual-spatial processing following childhood stroke. Neuropsychology, 18, 340-352.
  33. ^ Volberg, G., & Hubner, R. (2004). On the role of response conflicts and stimulus position for hemispheric differences in global/local processing: An ERP study. Neuropsychologia, 42, 1805-1813.
  34. ^ Drake, R. A. (2004). Selective potentiation of proximal processes: Neurobiological mechanisms for spread of activation. Medical Science Monitor, 10, 231-234.
  35. ^ McElroy, T., & Seta, J. J. (2004). On the other hand am I rational? Hemisphere activation and the framing effect. Brain and Cognition, 55, 572-580.
  36. ^ Flyvbjerg 2006.
  37. ^ Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, 2003, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition (Cambridge University Press).

Bibliography

Referred literature

  • Bent Flyvbjerg, 2006: From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right. Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, August, pp. 5–15. Available at homepage of author.
  • James Franklin, 2001: The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
  • Niklas Luhmann, 1996: Modern Society Shocked by its Risks (= University of Hong Kong, Department of Sociology Occasional Papers 17), Hong Kong, available via HKU Scholars HUB.

Books

  • Historian David A. Moss’s book When All Else Fails explains the U.S. government’s historical role as risk manager of last resort.
  • Peter L. Bernstein. Against the Gods ISBN 0-471-29563-9. Risk explained and its appreciation by man traced from earliest times through all the major figures of their ages in mathematical circles.
  • Rescher, Nicholas (1983). A Philosophical Introduction to the Theory of Risk Evaluation and Measurement. University Press of America.
  • Porteous, Bruce T.; Pradip Tapadar (December 2005). Economic Capital and Financial Risk Management for Financial Services Firms and Conglomerates. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 1-4039-3608-0.
  • Tom Kendrick (2003). Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Failure-Proofing Your Project. AMACOM/American Management Association. ISBN 978-0814407615.
  • Flyvbjerg, Bent, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, 2003. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)..
  • David Hillson (2007). Practical Project Risk Management: The Atom Methodology. Management Concepts. ISBN 978-1567262025.
  • Kim Heldman (2005). Project Manager’s Spotlight on Risk Management. Jossey-Bass. ISBN 978-0782144116.
  • Dirk Proske (2008). Catalogue of risks — Natural, Technical, Social and Health Risks. Springer. ISBN 978-3540795544.
  • Gardner, Dan, Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, Random House, Inc., 2008. ISBN 0771032994.

Articles and papers

  • Clark, L., Manes, F., Antoun, N., Sahakian, B. J., & Robbins, T. W. (2003). «The contributions of lesion laterality and lesion volume to decision-making impairment following frontal lobe damage.» Neuropsychologia, 41, 1474-1483.
  • Drake, R. A. (1985). «Decision making and risk taking: Neurological manipulation with a proposed consistency mediation.» Contemporary Social Psychology, 11, 149-152.
  • Drake, R. A. (1985). «Lateral asymmetry of risky recommendations.» Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 11, 409-417.
  • Gregory, Kent J., Bibbo, Giovanni and Pattison, John E. (2005), «A Standard Approach to Measurement Uncertainties for Scientists and Engineers in Medicine», Australasian Physical and Engineering Sciences in Medicine 28(2):131-139.
  • Hansson, Sven Ove. (2007). «Risk», The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2007 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), forthcoming [2].
  • Holton, Glyn A. (2004). «Defining Risk», Financial Analysts Journal, 60 (6), 19–25. A paper exploring the foundations of risk. (PDF file).
  • Knight, F. H. (1921) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Chicago: Houghton Mifflin Company. (Cited at: [3], § I.I.26.).
  • Kruger, Daniel J., Wang, X.T., & Wilke, Andreas (2007) «Towards the development of an evolutionarily valid domain-specific risk-taking scale» Evolutionary Psychology (PDF file).
  • Metzner-Szigeth, A. (2009). «Contradictory Approaches? – On Realism and Constructivism in the Social Sciences Research on Risk, Technology and the Environment.» Futures, Vol. 41, No. 2, March 2009, pp. 156–170 (fulltext journal: [4]) (free preprint: [5]).
  • Miller, L. (1985). «Cognitive risk taking after frontal or temporal lobectomy I. The synthesis of fragmented visual information.» Neuropsychologia, 23, 359 369.
  • Miller, L., & Milner, B. (1985). «Cognitive risk taking after frontal or temporal lobectomy II. The synthesis of phonemic and semantic information.» Neuropsychologia, 23, 371 379.
  • Neill, M. Allen, J. Woodhead, N. Reid, S. Irwin, L. Sanderson, H. 2008 «A Positive Approach to Risk Requires Person Centred Thinking» London, CSIP Personalisation Network, Department of Health. Available from: http://networks.csip.org.uk/Personalisation/Topics/Browse/Risk/ [Accessed 21 July 2008].

External links

The Wiktionary definition of risk

  • Risk — The entry of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
  • Risk Management magazine, a publication of the Risk and Insurance Management Society.
  • The Institute of Risk Management (IRM) is risk management’s leading international professional education and training body
  • Risk and Insurance
  • StrategicRISK, a risk management journal
  • «Risk preference and religiosity» article from the Institute for the Biocultural Study of Religion

Meaning Risk

What does Risk mean? Here you find 330 meanings of the word Risk. You can also add a definition of Risk yourself

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n. chances of danger or loss, particularly of property covered by…

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Risk

Often defined as the standard deviation of the return on total investment. Degree of uncertainty of return on an asset. In context of asset pricing theory. See: Systematic risk.

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Risk

The chance of fire starting as determined by the presence and activity of causative agents.A chance of suffering harm or loss.A causative agent.(NFDRS) A number related to the potential of firebrands [..]

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Risk

The combination of the probability of an event and its consequence. (ISO/IEC 73).

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Risk

Possibility of suffering economic loss.  Sources of risk include climate, disease, and changes in the marketplace.

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Risk

Risk is the product of the level of threat with the level of vulnerability. It establishes the likelihood of a successful attack.

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Risk

In business, especially insurance, the amount of money a company stands to lose, or the threat of an action or event which will have an adverse effect on a business.

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Risk

Chance of incurring financial loss by an insurer or provider.

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Risk

In risk comparisons in particular, a risk is frequently defined as multiplication of the extent of the consequences of an occurrence by the frequency (probability) of its occurrence. For example a tec [..]

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Risk

(1) Uncertainty arising from the possible occurrence of given events. (2) The insured or the property to which an insurance policy relates.

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Risk

1660s, risque, from French risque (16c.), from Italian risco, riscio (modern rischio), from riscare «run into danger,» of uncertain origin. The Englished spelling first recorded 1728. Spanis [..]

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Risk

1680s, from risk (n.), or from French risquer, from Italian riscare, rischaire, from the noun. Related: Risked; risks; risking.

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Risk

(of disease) Probability (chance) of disease developing in a person during a specified time period.

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Risk

The probability of an adverse event or issue occurring, which is related to a particular condition or treatment and consideration of how severe the consequences are likely to be. The risk may come [..]

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Risk

Risk has a few meanings in insurance, such as:

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Risk

The likelihood that harm will result from exposure to a hazard. More generally, the probability that an event has occurred, or will occur, in members of a population under specified conditions, e.g., [..]

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Risk

Risk is the possibility of injury, disease or death. For example, for a person who has measles, the risk of death is one in one million.

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Risk

The hazard or chance of loss on any particular item of insurance. The term &quot;risk&quot; usually is used in a general way to designate the entire subject matter of insurance covered under a [..]

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Risk

Potential for exposure to loss which can be determined by using either qualitative or quantitative measures.

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Risk

Risk is a measure of both the likelihood that an adverse event could occur and the magnitude of the expected consequences should it occur.

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Risk

An exposure of loss or harm to your property, or your potential legal responsibility.

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Risk

The combined answer to three questions that consider (1) what can go wrong, (2) how likely it is, and (3) what its consequences might be. These three questions allow the NRC to understand likely outcomes, sensitivities, areas of importance, system interactions, and areas of uncertainty, which can be used to identify risk-significant scenarios. For [..]

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Risk

Risk, in the context of genetics, refers to the probability that an individual will be affected by a particular genetic disorder. Both genes and environment influence risk. An individual’s risk may be higher because they inherit genes that cause or increase susceptibility to a disorder. Other individuals may be at higher risk because they live [..]

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Risk

The possibility that an investment or venture will make a loss or not make the returns expected. There are many different types of risk including basis risk, country or sovereign risk, credit risk, currency risk, economic risk, inflation risk, liquidity risk, market or systemic risk, political risk, settlement risk and translation risk.

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Risk

According to modern investment theory, the greater the risk you take in making an investment, the greater your return has the potential to be if the investment succeeds. For example, investing in a startup company carries substantial risk, since there is no guarantee that it will be profitable. But if it is, you’re in a position to realize a grea [..]

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Risk

The probability of an undesirable outcome. [D01716]

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Risk

A report prepared by the risk process manager after the project has terminated. [D05085]

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Risk

A plan prepared at the outset by the risk process manager, which establishes the risk strategy and baseline. The plan is updated as the work proceeds. [D05086]

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Risk

The likelihood of an event occurring that is detrimental to project success. Identification of all project risk categories and assessing their probability and impact is an important aspect of project [..]

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Risk

Risk is the potential for a chosen course of action or unexpected external or internal events to lead to an undesirable outcome.  ISO 31000 defines risk as ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives&# [..]

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Risk

A measure of (1) the probability of occurrence of harm to human health or (2) the severity of harm that may occur. Such a measure includes the judgment of the acceptability of risk. Assessment of safety involves judgment, and there are numerous perspectives (e.g., subjects, physicians, company, regulatory authorities) used for judging it.

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Risk

The possibility of gain or loss. Risk the calculated probability of different events happening, is usually contrasted with uncertainty the possibility that any number of things could happen. For examp [..]

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Risk

The probability of danger or loss, particularly of property covered by an insurance policy. (See also: assumption of risk)

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Risk

The probability of an event occurring during a specified period of time.

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Risk

The chance an investment will be lost or will provide less-than-expected returns.

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Risk

expose to a chance of loss or damage; &amp;quot;We risked losing a lot of money in this venture&amp;quot;; &amp;quot;Why risk your life?&amp;quot;; &amp;quot;She laid her job on th [..]

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Risk

(IEEE) A measure of the probability and severity of undesired effects. Often taken as the simple product of probability and consequence.

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Risk

The chance of something happening that will have a negative impact. It is measured in terms of consequences and likelihood

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Risk

a chance that you may lose something or be harmed in some way

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Risk

1. The likelihood that an event will be accompanied by undesirable consequences. Risk is measured by both the probability of the event and the seriousness of the consequences. 2. Any uncertainty tha [..]

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Risk

1. The possibility that a particular threat will exploit a particular vulnerability of a data processing system. [2382-pt.8]   2.    The likelihood that a successful attack will be mounted against a computer system. Risk is a function of both vulnerability and threat [CESG].

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Risk

The chance of an occurance (an event, action or lack of action ) that will have a negative impact upon objectives. Identified risk is measured in terms of consequences and likelihood.

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Risk

The probability that harm will be caused or that a regulatory concentration of a chemical will be exceeded. Risk is dependent on toxicity and exposure.

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Risk

The possibility of an event occurring that will have an impact on the achievement of objectives. Risk is measured in terms of impact and likelihood.​

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Risk

In finance, risk refers to the degree of uncertainty about the rate of return on an asset and the potential harm that could arise when financial returns are not what the investor expected. In general…

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Risk

The possibility of loss or a negative outcome; can be theoretical or measured epidemiologically. © Nature Education

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Risk

Definition The quantifiable likelihood of loss or less-than-expected returns. Examples: currency risk, inflation risk, principal risk, country risk, economic risk, mortgage risk, liquidity risk, marke [..]

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Risk

Probability that something undesirable will happen as a consequence of exposure to a hazard. risk-sensitive foraging

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Risk

Risk: The ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’, as defined by Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand (AS/NZS ISO 31000: 2009 Australian/New Zealand Standard: Risk management — Principles and guidelines). Risk is typically characterised by reference to potential events, and measured in terms of a combination of the likelihood of the even [..]

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Risk

An assessment of the likelihood of negative effects occurring to research participants as a result of the research. In ethical terms there are three levels of risk: inconvenience discomfort and harm.

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Risk

In broad terms, this is the chance that the actual outcome is different from what was expected. For example, one definition of risk is the chance that an investment will return less than anticipated. [..]

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Risk

rizikirn

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Risk

A measure of human injury, environmental damage, or economic loss in terms of both the incident likelihood and the magnitude of the loss or injury. A simplified version of this relationship expresses [..]

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Risk

or more specifically financial risk is the possibility of incurring loss with any type of financing. This term is used to denote the difference between actual and expected return. When the actual retu [..]

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Risk

1 a : possibility of loss or injury b : liability for loss or injury if it occurs [the of loss passes to the buyer when the goods are duly delivered to the carrier «Uniform Commercial Code»] [..]

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Risk

Risk is exposure to potential loss on an investment.

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Risk

Measurable possibility of losing or not gaining value.

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Uncertainty concerning the possibility of loss by a peril for which insurance is pursued.

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Risk

the likelihood that you will lose money on an investment.

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Risk

The set of probabilities and consequences for all possible accident scenarios associated with a given plant or process.

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Risk

The chance of possibility of loss. For example, physicians may be held at risk if hospitalization rates exceed agreed upon thresholds. Risk sharing is often used as a control mechanism in the HMO setting.

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Risk

Revenue Matrix

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Risk

(1)The possibility of loss. (2) The dollar difference between the current price and the price at which the liquidation of open positions would occur. (3) The portion of the performance bond requirement associated with the likely worst case change in value from one day to the next.

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Risk

The potential of losing one’s money or the uncertainty of future returns.

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Risk

A measure of the degree of uncertainty and/or of financial loss inherent in an investment or decision. There are many different risks, including: call risk—The risk that declining interest rates may accelerate the redemption of a callable security, causing an investor’s principal to be returned sooner than expected. As a consequence, investors [..]

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Risk

Also standard deviation, which measures the spread of actual returns around an average return during a specific period. Higher risk indicates greater potential for returns to be farther away from this [..]

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The chance or possibility of loss. For example, physicians may be held at risk if hospitalization rates exceed agreed-upon thresholds. The sharing of risk often is employed as a utilization control mechanism within the HMO setting. Risk also is defined in insurance terms as the possibility of loss associated with a given population.

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Risk

The chance of losing money.

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Risk

The future chance or probability of loss.

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Risk

Combination of the probability of occurrence of harm and the severity of that harm

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Risk

the likelihood of suffering adverse consequences from being exposed to a hazard

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Risk

The potential for the realization of the unwanted, negative consequences of an event. The product of conditional probability of an event, and the event outcomes. 

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Risk

is the probability that an actual return on an investment will be lower than the expected return.  Risk is measured by how far the actual return has varied from the average return over a historical period.  Volatility and high levels of variation in the expected return add to risk.

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Risk

In a financial market context, the chance that an investment will not provide the expected return.

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Risk

The chance that some unfavorable event will occur.

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Risk

the probability of injury, disease, or death under specific circumstances and time periods. Risk can be expressed as a value that ranges from 0% (no injury or harm will occur) to 100% (harm or injury [..]

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Risk

In general terms risk can be defined as the potential for unwanted, adverse consequences to human life, property, health, environment or society. The calculation (or estimation) of risk is usually bas [..]

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Risk

In many health fields, risk means the probability of incurring injury, disease, or death. Risk can be expressed as a value that ranges from zero (no injury or harm will occur) to one (harm or injury w [..]

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Risk

The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences. Comment: This definition closely follows the definition of the ISO/IEC Guide 73. The word “risk” has two distinctive connotations: in popular usage the emphasis is usually placed on the concept of chance or possibility, such as in “the risk of an accident”; wherea [..]

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Risk

  The event which can change the expected cash flow forecast for the project financing.

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Risk

Anything that endangers the achievement of an objective.

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Risk

In investment terms risk is a measure of volatility. Volatility is a measure of the variability of returns and is the standard deviation of investment returns over a specific period of time. The higher the standard deviation, the higher the level of risk associated with that investment.

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Risk

The possibility that your investment may fall in value or earn less than expected.

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Risk

The chance of loss.

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Risk

Risk is the danger of experiencing loss or harm. Risk is a primary concept in both insurance and in investing. Insurance companies set premium levels based on estimated risk of loss.   Investors ch [..]

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Risk

Those undertaking investments or the production of goods and services for sale cannot know with certainty whether they will recover the outlays needed to conduct these activities. Although some risks [..]

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Risk

The inherent possibility that an investment will lose value.

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Risk

Probability of an adverse event occurring.

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Risk

Some investments are riskier than others. For example, an investment in the stock market is riskier than money put into savings accounts – there’s more chance of something going wrong and you losi [..]

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Risk

(n) a source of danger; a possibility of incurring loss or misfortune(n) a venture undertaken without regard to possible loss or injury(n) the probability of becoming infected given that exposure t [..]

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Risk

The chance that an activity or hazard will give rise to harm. Risk is generally given in terms of numerical odds (1 in 10) or percentages (10%).

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Risk

Risks are threats to life, health and safety, the environment, economic well-being, and other things of value. Risks are often evaluated in terms of how likely they are to occur (probability) and the [..]

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Risk

The chance that an investor will lose all or part of an investment.

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Risk

periculum

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Risk

Risk is the probability of harm or injury occurring as a result of using a treatment in clinical practice or as part of a research study. The harm or injury may be physical, but can also be psychologi [..]

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Risk

The possibility of suffering harm or loss; danger.

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Risk

The potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an incident, event, or occurrence, as determined by its likelihood and the associated consequences. (NIPP, DHS Risk Lexicon)

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Risk

The measure used by QAA in its judgements to indicate the extent to which an AVA meets the licensing criteria (classified as low, medium, high or very high).

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Risk

This is the chance or likelihood of loss.

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Risk

Risk is exposure to potential loss or other harm to an investment.

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Risk

A combination of the probability and the degree of the possible injury or damage to health in a hazardous situation.

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Risk

The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain. Risk is often represented as a probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the consequences if these events occur.

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Risk

What makes you buy insurance. It is anything you don’t want to lose or have damaged including yourself.

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Risk

Possibility that the actual return on an investment will be less than its expected return.

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Risk

Probability that an event will occur; a measure of the degree of loss expected by the occurrence of an event.

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Risk

The chance of suffering a loss.

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Risk

Something that could cause an organization not to meet one of its objectives.

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Risk

Risk is the possibility of a negative or undesirable occurance. There are two independent parts of risk: Impact

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Risk

google_ad_client=»pub-8027288574377500″;google_ad_slot=»1043341745″;google_ad_width=120;google_ad_height=600; Definition: The word Risk means that circumstances in which an organiz [..]

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Risk

The chance of something happening that will materially impact the achievement of objectives – it is measured in terms of event likelihood and consequence.

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Risk

The chance an investment will be lost or will provide less-than-expected returns.

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Risk

  A measure of the potential degree to which protected information is subject to loss through adversary exploitation. See:  Risk Management Risk Analysis A method by which individual vulnerabilities [..]

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Risk

the possibility of loss; inherent in all business activities. High risk requires high return. All business decisions must consider the amount of risk involved.

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Risk

Any chance of loss or damage.

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Risk

The chance of suffering a loss, which in this context refers to a loss, damage or injury involving a motor vehicle.

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Risk

Risk is a common insurance term. In relation to car insurance, it’s defined as the likelihood of a policy-holder (i.e. a driver) making a claim that results in the insurer needing to pay out the cla [..]

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Risk

 The chance of suffering a loss.

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Risk

n. (of default) riesgo de incumplimiento

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Risk

The chance of something happening that will have an adverse impact on a service provider’s objectives. Risk is measured in terms of likelihood and consequences.

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Risk

A measure of the degree of uncertainty and/or of financial loss inherent in an investment or decision. There are many different risks, including: call risk—The risk that declining interest rates may [..]

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Risk

The chance of something happening that can cause an accident, injury or harm and is measured in terms of consequences and likelihood.

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Risk

The chance of something happening that will have an impact on objectives. It is measured in terms of consequences and likelihood.

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Risk

The peril or danger you want to insure against.

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Risk

The ‘probability of a consequence occurring’ multiplied by ‘the magnitude of the consequence’.

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Risk

The peril which the insurance company agrees to insure against.

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Risk

This is a complex term and can have multiple meanings. In relation to insurance, risk is associated with the possibility of an unfortunate occurrence giving rise to a loss.

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Risk

The chance of loss.

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Risk

The chance of injury, damage, or loss.

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Risk

The possibility that your investment may fall in value or earn less than expected.

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Risk

The probability that an event will occur, e.g., that an individual will become ill or die within a stated period of time or age. Also, a nontechnical term encompassing a variety of measures of the pro [..]

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Risk

Financial market theory measures the risk of an investment by the fluctuations in returns (i.e. the spread of returns around an average value). In theory, risk and return are directly linked: The higher the risk entered into, the greater the return that should be generated by the investment over time.

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Risk

A measure of the probability of an adverse effect on a population under a well-defined exposure scenario.

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Risk

The probability that something will cause injury or harm.

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Risk

A measure of the probability that damage to life, health, property, and/or the environment will occur as a result of a given hazard.

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Risk

A measure of the probability that damage to life, health, property, and/or the environment will occur as a result of a given hazard.

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Risk

A measure of the probability that damage to life, health, property, and/or the environment will occur as a result of a given hazard.

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Risk

A risk is the potential that a given threat will exploit the vulnerabilities of an asset or group of assets, thus causing harm to the organisation (for example a virus deleting a file). It is measured [..]

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Risk

the probability of a negative outcome occurring.

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Risk

The Probability that an event will occur. It encompasses a variety of measures of the Probability of a generally unfavorable outcome.

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Risk

The process of minimizing Risk to an Organization by developing systems to identify and analyze potential hazards to prevent accidents, injuries, and other adverse occurrences, and by attempting to ha [..]

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Risk

Organs which might be damaged during exposure to a toxin or to some form of therapy. It most frequently refers to healthy organs located in the Radiation field during Radiation therapy.

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Risk

(1) The chance of loss; (2) The insured or property covered by a policy or application.

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Risk

The chance of loss or the person or entity that is insured.

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Risk

The probability that an event will occur. It encompasses a variety of measures of the probability of a generally unfavorable outcome.

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Risk

A risk is an occurrence which might happen but does not include an inevitability, which must happen.

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Risk

The possibility of an unexpected outcome, which is typically a loss.

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Risk

The subject of the insurance coverage, or the probability of an event occurring.

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Risk

The peril insured against or an individual exposure.

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Risk

The chance that a loss will occur.

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Risk

The peril insured against or an individual exposure.

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Risk

The chance of suffering a loss.

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Risk

A fortuity. It does not embrace inevitable loss. The term is used to define causes of loss covered by a policy.

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Risk

the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from the interaction between hazards and vulnerabile conditions (Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability)

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Risk

A measure of the possibility that the future may be surprisingly different from what we expect. Downside risk of loss and upside risk of gain.

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Risk

A hazard, exposure or chance of loss.

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Risk

A fortuity. It does not embrace inevitable loss. The term is used to define causes of loss covered by a policy.

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Risk

General meaning is a thing or person insured.

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Risk

Uncertainty of financial loss; term used to designate an insured or a peril insured against.

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Risk

The chance of injury, damage, or loss.

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Risk

The probability of injury, illness or death associated with an insured.

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Risk

The probability of suffering a loss.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

The chance of loss or the person or entity that is insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

Factor(s) that determine the possibility of a loss which assist the underwriter in determining the cost to insure your boat. May include the operators experience, the type of boat or the location of the boat.

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Risk

(1) A chance of loss. (2) A person or thing insured. (Impaired or substandard risk: An applicant whose physical condition or moral habits do not meet the standard on which the rate is based).

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

1. Uncertainty associated with a transaction or an asset. 2. The probability of loss. Differs from definition 1 because «uncertainty» includes probability of gain as well as loss. In interna [..]

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Risk

1) The possibility that some invested funds will be lost through a decline in the value of the investment. 2) Degree of uncertainty of return of asset. We have defined the following 13 types of risks [..]

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Risk

The condition of possibly losing money or not gaining as much as anticipated. Common forms of risk are interest rate risk, inflation risk, market risk, and business risk.

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Risk

Risk is the chance that your investment could decline in value. If you are prepared to accept greater risk, you have the chance of getting higher returns or profit on your money. Low-risk investments, [..]

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Risk

The most common etymology traces its origins to a Greek seafaring term rhizikon, from rhiza, meaning &quot;root, stone, cut of the land&quot;, which came, via Homer’s Odyssey, to be used as [..]

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Risk

A hazard, exposure or chance of loss

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Risk

The probability of injury, illness or death associated with an insured.

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Risk

The chance of suffering a loss.

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Risk

Chance of loss with respect to person, liability, or the property of the insured. Also used to mean «the insured.»

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Risk

the likelihood of the occurrence and the likely magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of an adverse event or effect to animal or human health.

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Risk

The possibility of damage or loss.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

This is the obligation assumed by the Insurer when a policy is issued. The process of evaluating and selecting risk is known as underwriting.

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Risk

The chance of loss or the person or entity that is insured.

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Risk

A chance of loss.

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Risk

General meaning is a thing or person insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

The chance of loss or the person or entity that is insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

204

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

205

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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0

Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

(1) Exposure to loss, (2) an insured, or (3) a portion of an insured operation.

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Risk

A person or thing insured.

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Risk

See Degree of Risk.

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Risk

1. A chance of loss. 2. A person or thing insured — Impaired or substandard risk: An applicant whose physical condition or moral habits do not meet the standard on which the rate is based.

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Risk

The chance of loss, the degree of probability of loss or the amount of possible loss to the insuring company. For an individual, risk represents such probabilities as the likelihood of surgical complications, medications’ side effects, exposure to infection, or the chance of suffering a medical problem because of a lifestyle or other choice. F [..]

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Risk

The chance an investment will be lost or will provide less-than-expected returns.

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Risk

The probability that an individual will experience a certain event during a defined period of time. Risk-benefit analysis

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Risk

The likelihood that an individual will experience a certain event. [7]

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Risk

 The likelihood that an individual will experience a certain event.

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Risk

The likelihood that an individual will experience a certain event.

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Risk

Taking a chance. Having any kind of sex without a condom presents a risk for getting STIs. Sharing drug needles can put you at risk for getting HIV and other bloodborne infections including hepatitis [..]

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Risk

The measurable probability of loss or less-than-expected returns from an investment, asset or business activity.

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Risk

Potential harm as determined by the degree of the HAZARD and the amount of EXPOSURE

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Risk

From a safety point of view, a risk is something that poses a threat, usually to health or well-being.

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Risk

Measures the likelihood that a hazard will actually cause harm together with how serious the problem could be.

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Risk

Used as a term for a danger that arises unpredictably, such as being struck by a car.

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Risk

the likelihood that harm might result because of a hazard.

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Risk

The probability of adverse effects cause under specified circumstances by an agent in an organism, a population or an ecological system.

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Risk

For a food establishment: Determined to be high, moderate, or low using a risk assessment tool. This tool takes into account factors such as the type of food and population it serves. The level of risk determines how often it is inspected. High-risk food premises are inspected at least three times per year; moderate-risk at least twice per year; an [..]

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Risk

The probability of a hazard occurring.

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Risk

The likelihood of a hazard causing harm in exposed populations in a specified time frame, including the magnitude of that harm.

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Risk

The likelihood of a hazard occurring in food

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Risk

The probability of a hazard occurring. Sanitizer:

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Risk

The chance of incurring a loss from an investment.

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Risk

The chance of loss or the person or entity that is insured. RISK MANAGEMENT

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Risk

The phenomenon of risk (or alternatively, uncertainty or incomplete information) plays a pervasive role in economic life. Without it, financial and …

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Risk

The phenomenon of risk plays a pervasive role in economics. Without it, financial and capital markets would consist of the exchange of a single instrument …

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Risk

The hazard, or chance of loss, on any particular item of insurance. The term «risk» usually is used in a general way to designate the entire subject matter of insurance covered under a polic [..]

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Risk

the variability of returns. Generally, the higher the level of risk an investor is prepared to accept, the higher the potential return over time may be. Learn more about risk

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Risk

Effect of uncertainty on objectives. Notes: (1)   An effect is a deviation from the expected – positive and/or   negative. (2)   Objectives can relate to different disciplines (such as financial, health and safety, and environmental goals) and can apply at different levels (such as strategic, organization-wide, project, produ [..]

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Risk

The chance a target will be involved in a crime.

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Risk

The chance of incurring a loss from an investment.

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Risk

The chance that an investor will lose all or part of an investment.

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Risk

The chance an investment will be lost or will provide less-than-expected returns.

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Risk

Investment risk is the chance that the actual returns realized on an investment will differ from the expected return.

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Risk

n. chances of danger or loss, particularly of property covered by an insurance policy or property being used or transported by another. Insurance companies assume the risk of loss and calculate their [..]

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Risk

A measure of the extent to which an entity is threatened by a potential circumstance or event, and typically a function of (1) the adverse impacts that would arise if the circumstance or event occurs; and (2) the likelihood of occurrence.

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Risk

The chance that an investment’s actual return will be different than expected. All investments contain some element of risk. Securities

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Risk

the general term given to the likelihood that investors may suffer a loss or fail to receive the expected level of return from an investment. Many investment funds show the level of risk taken by the [..]

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Risk

In its simple sense, risk is the variability of returns. Investments with greater inherent risk usually deliver higher investment returns.

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Risk

The probability that a hazard or effect will occur at a specific level of exposure to a substance.

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Risk

A possible event that could cause harm or loss, or affect the ability to achieve objectives. A risk is measured by the probability of a threat, the vulnerability of the asset to that threat, and the i [..]

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Risk

The amount of money that is placed on an event or a game.

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Risk

The possibility of losing an amount of money that is bet on the outcome of an event, contest, game or machine.

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Risk

A move or series of moves designed to gain an advantage but which has a chance of causing a disadvantage.

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Risk

The likelihood or the probability that the actual return (money made) of an investment will be different from what was expected. The higher the risk, the higher will be the probability of gain or loss [..]

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Risk

The probability of injury, disease or death under specific circumstances. In quantitative terms, risk is expressed in values ranging from zero (0), representing the certainty that harm will not occur, [..]

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Risk

The potential for losing money invested due to factors such as the volatility of a security’s price, and changing market and economic conditions.

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Risk

It refers to variability of return or gain and is measured ge nerally by standard deviation or beta coefficient.

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Risk

The chance a loss will be sustained in a loan or investment, or other transaction. The likelihood you will lose money on an investment.

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Risk

The word risk comes from the Latin «risicare» meaning «risk». In finance the concept of risk is related to the possibility of an event occurring that translates into losses for fin [..]

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Risk

The degree of uncertainty associated with an investment.

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Risk

The proportion of participants experiencing the event of interest. Thus, if out of 100 participants the event (e.g. a stroke) is observed in 32, the risk is 0.32. The control group risk is the risk amongst the control group. The risk is sometimes referred to as the event rate, and the control group risk as the control event rate. However, these lat [..]

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Risk

The possibility of losing an amount of money that is bet on the outcome of an event, contest, game, or machine.

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Risk

The probability that an event will occur, e.g. that an individual will become ill or die within a stated period of time or age.

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Risk

The probability of harm being caused; the probability (chance, odds) of an occurrence.

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Risk

The possibility of loss; the uncertainty of future returns.

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Risk

The probability of a MPB attack in a stand. The factors that could increase risk may include high susceptibility, high hazard, high potential of beetle movement into the stand and high beetle population levels close to the stand Salvage harvesting

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Risk

A measure of the probability that damage to life, health, property, and/or the environment will occur as a result of a given hazard. For health risk, it is a measure of both the harm to human health t [..]

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Risk

The probability that damage to life, health, and/or the environment will occur as a result of a given hazard (such as exposure to a toxic chemical). Some risks can be measured or estimated in numerica [..]

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Risk

The risk a chemical substance poses is a function of its hazardous properties and the way people and the environment are exposed to those properties. The hazardous properties and exposure for people o [..]

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Risk

Risk is defined in most health-related fields as the probability or odds of incurring injury, disease, or death.

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Risk

The chance of financial loss to which the object of insurance may be exposed.

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Risk

The change or possibility of loss. 

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Risk

risk Measure of likelihood of occurrence of an undesirable event and of potentially adverse consequences.

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Risk

The possibility of loss or injury. A level of uncertainty is associated with the various possible outcomes of the undertaking. Risk usually refers to a numerical estimate of the likelihood of the occurrence to these various possible outcomes.

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Risk

As applied to hazardous oil and gas facilities, a compound measure of the probability and number of fatalities or serious injuries that is due to a deviation from normal operating conditions.

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Risk

An expression of uncertainty (high risk) or uncertainty (no risk) often relating to the presence of principal geological factors controlling oil accumulations. 

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Risk

The chance or probability that a person or property will be harmed if exposed to a hazard.

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Risk

Risk should be clearly distinguished from hazard. Risk is the chance that a given hazardous effect will occur. The use of fire by humans is an example of optimising the balance between hazard and risk, as fire, being extremely hazardous, must be used under carefully controlled conditions to keep risks to a minimum.

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Risk

Concept that denotes the product of the probability of a hazard and the subsequent consequence of the associated event

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Risk

The likelihood or possibility of an outcome such as injury, disease, or death.  For example, a risk level of 1 in 1,000,000 indicates that one person out of one million people will experience the out [..]

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Risk

Expected losses (of lives, persons injured, property damaged and economic activity disrupted) due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. Based on mathematical calculations, risk is the product of hazard and vulnerability.

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Risk

A combination of the likelihood that a threat will occur, the likelihood that a threat occurrence will result in an adverse impact, and the severity of the resulting impact. {Source: NSTISSI No. 1000} [..]

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Risk

If outcomes will occur with known or estimable probability the decisionmaker faces a risk. Certainty is a special case of risk in which this probability is equal to zero or one. Contrast uncertainty.

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Risk

the probability of a (negative) occurrence.

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Risk

Uncertainty as to the outcome of an event. The chance of loss. A person or thing insured. Related Topics Insurance

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Risk

The chance of loss or the person or entity that is insured.

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Risk

Wager amount or the amount bet on a game.

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Risk

The chance of loss. In life insurance, the probability of death.

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Risk

n. chances of danger or loss, particularly of property covered by an insurance policy or property being used or transported by another. Insurance companies assume the risk of loss and calculate their [..]

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Risk

Probability (number between 0 and 1) that event with adverse effects occurs.Other definitions exist, but this one has the highest relevance for the practitioner.

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Risk

1) Which refers to the probability of harm.

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Risk

 – Risk is basically the chance of a loss. The chance of a loss is generally accepted to increase with the volatility of the share price of a company. Volatility can be as a result of company performance, the amount of information flow out of a company, economic influences, and broader market influences. Generally, the less volatile a company’ [..]

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0

Risk

Risk

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Risk

Also known as market risk. The probability that a share price will go down rather than up. All investments have an element of risk, which is harder to quantify than their return, and therefore very of [..]

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Risk

  The probability that a specified hazard will result in an undesired event.

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Risk

the probability, indicating the possibility of a disease developing in an individual’s lifetime. For instance, if 3 out of 30 people fall ill, the absolute risk of an individual falling ill is 10 [..]

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Risk

the probability, used to show the possibility of disease development in two different groups of people. If the data above is used, the probability of an individual falling ill is 10%. If the relative [..]

301

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Risk

a potential problem or occurrence that put a project in jeopardy

302

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Risk

the probability of a hazard causing harm and the degree of severity of the harm (ISO/CD 14971 Medical Devices and Risk Management — Application of Risk Management to Medical Devices).

303

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Risk

The chance that an investor will lose all or part of an investment.

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Risk

The likelihood of suffering adverse effects from a hazard.

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Risk

Uncertainty or variability; the possibility that returns from an investment will be less than forecast, or that invested principal might be lost.  Diversification of investments provides some protect [..]

306

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Risk

The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or [..]

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Risk

A condition that could cause some loss or otherwise threaten the success of a project.

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Risk

Possibility that an investment’s actual return will be different than expected; includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. Measured by variability of historical re [..]

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Risk

  The variability of returns from those that are expected. [Chapter 5] Risk-adjusted discount rate (RADR)

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Risk

Factors that may cause the profit or cash flows of the business to fluctuate. Back to the top S

311

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Risk

Often defined as the standard deviation of the return on total investment. Degree of uncertainty of return on an asset. In context of asset pricing theory. See: Systematic risk.

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Risk

See environmental risks.

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Risk

Risk is the eighth studio album by American thrash metal band Megadeth, released on August 31, 1999 by Capitol Records, the band’s last album to be released by the label. The first Megadeth album sinc [..]

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Risk

Risk is a strategy board game of diplomacy, conflict and conquest for two to six players. The standard version is played on a board depicting a political map of the earth, divided into forty-two terri [..]

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Risk

Risk is the eighth studio album by American thrash metal band Megadeth, released on August 31, 1999 by Capitol Records, the band’s last album to be released by the label. The first Megadeth album sinc [..]

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Risk

Risk is the potential of gaining or losing something of value. Values (such as physical health, social status, emotional well-being, or financial wealth) can be gained or lost when taking risk resulti [..]

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Risk

Risk is a strategy board game of diplomacy, conflict and conquest for two to six players. The standard version is played on a board depicting a political map of the earth, divided into forty-two terri [..]

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Risk

«Risk» is a science fiction short story by American writer Isaac Asimov, first published in the May 1955 issue of Astounding Science Fiction, and reprinted in the collections The Rest of the [..]

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Risk

Risk is a comic book character appearing in publications from DC Comics.

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Risk

Risk is the possibility of loss or injury.
Risk, Risks, or Risky may also refer to:

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Risk

Risk magazine provides news and analysis covering the financial industry, with a particular focus on risk management, derivatives and complex finance. It includes articles and papers on credit risk, m [..]

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Risk

Risk is a 2007 Bollywood film directed by Vishram Sawant. It stars Randeep Hooda, Vinod Khanna, Tanushree Dutta, Zakir Hussain, Yashpal Sharma and Anant Jog in the lead roles. The movie is based on th [..]

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Risk

Risk is the seventh album by Estonian rock band Terminaator, released in 2001. It is the official soundtrack for Terminaator’s musical «Risk». Initially, the musical’s name was «Rooste& [..]

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Risk

Risk is the fifth studio album by Canadian country music singer Paul Brandt, released on September 11, 2007 on Brandt’s own record label, Brand-T Records.

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Risk

Risk is the second album by Christian rock band Ten Shekel Shirt. It was released in 2003.

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Risk

Risk is the potential of gaining or losing something of value. Values (such as physical health, social status, emotional well-being, or financial wealth) can be gained or lost when taking risk resulti [..]

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Risk

RISK (born Kelly Graval), also known as RISKY, is a Los Angeles-based graffiti artist and fashion entrepreneur. In the 1980s, RISK gained notoriety for his unique style and pushed the limits of graffi [..]

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Risk

Statistical risk is a quantification of a situation’s risk using statistical methods. These methods can be used to estimate a probability distribution for the outcome of a specific variable, or at lea [..]

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Risk

Risk is a 2001 Australian film about insurance fraud directed by Alan White and starring Tom Long, Bryan Brown, and Claudia Karvan. The film is based on the story The Adjuster by Tracy Kidder.

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Risk

Risk is a 2017 American documentary film written and directed by Laura Poitras about the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. It was screened in the Directors’ Fortnight section at the 2016 Cannes Film F [..]

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