What if question excel

Create Different Scenarios | Scenario Summary | Goal Seek

What-If Analysis in Excel allows you to try out different values (scenarios) for formulas. The following example helps you master what-if analysis quickly and easily.

Assume you own a book store and have 100 books in storage. You sell a certain % for the highest price of $50 and a certain % for the lower price of $20.

If you sell 60% for the highest price, cell D10 calculates a total profit of 60 * $50 + 40 * $20 = $3800.

Create Different Scenarios

But what if you sell 70% for the highest price? And what if you sell 80% for the highest price? Or 90%, or even 100%? Each different percentage is a different scenario. You can use the Scenario Manager to create these scenarios.

Note: You can simply type in a different percentage into cell C4 to see the corresponding result of a scenario in cell D10. However, what-if analysis enables you to easily compare the results of different scenarios. Read on.

1. On the Data tab, in the Forecast group, click What-If Analysis.

2. Click Scenario Manager.

The Scenario Manager dialog box appears.

3. Add a scenario by clicking on Add.

4. Type a name (60% highest), select cell C4 (% sold for the highest price) for the Changing cells and click on OK.

5. Enter the corresponding value 0.6 and click on OK again.

6. Next, add 4 other scenarios (70%, 80%, 90% and 100%).

Finally, your Scenario Manager should be consistent with the picture below:

Note: to see the result of a scenario, select the scenario and click on the Show button. Excel will change the value of cell C4 accordingly for you to see the corresponding result on the sheet.

Scenario Summary

To easily compare the results of these scenarios, execute the following steps.

1. Click the Summary button in the Scenario Manager.

2. Next, select cell D10 (total profit) for the result cell and click on OK.

Result:

Conclusion: if you sell 70% for the highest price, you obtain a total profit of $4100, if you sell 80% for the highest price, you obtain a total profit of $4400, etc. That’s how easy what-if analysis in Excel can be.

Goal Seek

What if you want to know how many books you need to sell for the highest price, to obtain a total profit of exactly $4700? You can use Excel’s Goal Seek feature to find the answer.

1. On the Data tab, in the Forecast group, click What-If Analysis.

2. Click Goal Seek.

The Goal Seek dialog box appears.

3. Select cell D10.

4. Click in the ‘To value’ box and type 4700.

5. Click in the ‘By changing cell’ box and select cell C4.

6. Click OK.

Result. You need to sell 90% of the books for the highest price to obtain a total profit of exactly $4700.

Note: visit our page about Goal Seek for more examples and tips.

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Introduction

Let’s saying you’re trying to solve a complicated problem with Excel, like calculating an unknown value. You could try solving it on your own, plugging in different numbers until you find the right answer. However, this method could take a lot of time and effort.

Instead of calculating the answer by yourself, you could use a powerful Excel tool called what-if analysis. This feature makes it easier to experiment with your data. In this lesson, we’ll show you how to use what-if analysis to answer different types of questions.

What-if analysis

Excel includes many powerful tools to perform complex mathematical calculations, including what-if analysis. This feature can help you experiment and answer questions with your data, even when the data is incomplete. In this lesson, you’ll learn how to use a what-if analysis tool called Goal Seek.

Optional: You can download this example for extra practice.

Using Goal Seek

When you create a formula or function in Excel, you put various parts together to calculate a result. Goal Seek works in the opposite way: It lets you start with the desired result, and it calculates the input value that will give you that result. We’ll use a few examples to show how to use Goal Seek.

To use Goal Seek (Example 1):

Let’s say you’re enrolled in a class. You currently have a grade of 65, and you need at least a 70 to pass the class. Luckily, you have one final assignment that might be able to raise your average. You can use Goal Seek to find out what grade you need on the final assignment to pass the class.

In the image below, you can see that the grades on the first four assignments are 58, 70, 72, and 60. Even though we don’t know what the fifth grade will be, we can go ahead and write a formula or function that calculates the final grade. In this case, each assignment is weighted equally, so all we have to do is average all five grades by typing =AVERAGE(B2:B6). Once we use Goal Seek, cell B6 will show us the minimum grade we’ll need to make on the final assignment.

Function calculating the monthly payment

1. Select the cell containing the value you want to change. When you use Goal Seek, you’ll need to select a cell that already contains a formula or function. In our example, we’ll select cell B7 because it contains the formula =AVERAGE(B2:B6).

   Selecting cell B7

2. From the Data tab, click the What-If Analysis command, then select Goal Seek from the drop-down menu.

   Selecting Goal Seek from the drop-down menu
   

3. A dialog box will appear with three fields:
   • Set cell: This is the cell that will contain the desired result. In our example, cell B7 is already selected.
   • To value: This is the desired result. In our example, we’ll enter 70 because we need to earn at least that to pass the class.
   • By changing cell: This is the cell where Goal Seek will place its answer. In our example, we’ll select cell B6 because we want to determine the grade we need to earn on the final assignment.
4. When you’re done, click OK.

   Entering the desired values into the dialog box and clicking OK

5. The dialog box will tell you if Goal Seek was able to find a solution. Click OK.

   Clicking OK

6. The result will appear in the specified cell. In our example, Goal Seek calculated that we will need to score at least a 90 on the final assignment to earn a passing grade.

   The completed Goal Seek and calculated value

To use Goal Seek (Example 2):

Let’s say you need a loan to buy a new car. You already know you want a loan amount of $20,000, a 60-month term—the length of time it takes to pay off the loan—and a payment of no more than $400 per month. However, you’re not sure yet what the interest rate will be.

In the image below, you can see that Interest Rate is left blank and Payment is $333.33. This is because the payment is being calculated by a specialized function called the PMT (Payment) function, and $333.33 is what the monthly payment would be if there were no interest ($20,000 divided by 60 monthly payments).

Function calculating the monthly payment

If we typed different values into the empty Interest Rate cell, we could eventually find the value that causes Payment to be $400, and that would be the highest interest rate that we could afford. However, Goal Seek can do this automatically by starting with the result and working backward.

To insert the PMT function:

1. Select the cell where you want the function to be.
2. From the Formula tab, select the Financial command.

   The Financial command

3. A drop-down menu will appear showing all financial-related functions. Scroll down and select the PMT function.

   Selecting the PMT function

4. A dialog box will appear.
5. Enter the desired values and/or cell references into the different fields. In this example, we’re only using Rate, Nper (the number of payments), and Pv (the loan amount).

   Entering values into the necessary fields

6. Click OK. The result will appear in the selected cell. Note that this is not our final result because we still don’t know what the interest rate will be.

   The monthly payment, not including interest

Other types of what-if analysis

For more advanced projects, you may want to consider the other types of what-if analysis: scenarios and data tables. Rather than start from the desired result and working backward like with Goal Seek, you can use these options to test multiple values and see how the results change.

• Scenarios let you substitute values for multiple cells (up to 32) at the same time. You can create as many scenarios as you want and then compare them without changing the values manually. In the example below, each scenario contains a term and an interest rate. When each scenario is selected, it will replace the values in the spreadsheet with its own values, and the result will be recalculated.

  Using the Scenario Manager to compare different options
  

For more information on scenarios, check out this article from Microsoft.

• Data tables allow you to take one or two variables in a formula and replace them with as many different values as you want, then view the results in a table. This option is especially powerful because it shows multiple results at the same time, unlike scenarios or Goal Seek. In the example below, we can view 24 possible results for a car loan.

  Data tables

For more information on data tables, check out this article from Microsoft.

Challenge!

1. Open an existing Excel 2010 workbook. If you want, you can use this example.
2. Use Goal Seek to determine an unknown value. If you’re using the example, go to the History Class worksheet and use Goal Seek to determine what grade you would need on Test 3 to earn a final grade average of 90.
3. Insert the PMT function into the worksheet. If you are using the example, go to the Car Loan worksheet and insert the function into cell B5.
4. Use Goal Seek to find the interest rate you’ll need in order to have a monthly payment of $400. What interest rate would you need if you could only afford a $380 monthly payment?

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If you’ve ever experimented with different variables to see how your changes would affect the outcome of a situation, you’ve done a what if analysis. 

Would you be able to sell more items if you had a sale this week? Or would you make more money by increasing the price instead? In the above scenarios, you want to know the degree to which each change affects the overall outcome. For this reason, a what if analysis is also known as a sensitivity analysis.

Most what if analyses are really mathematical calculations, and that is Excel’s specialty. To help you do a what if analysis, Excel uses commands from the Forecast command group on the Data tab to prepare simple forecasts or advanced business models. 

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Goal Seek

The simplest sensitivity analysis tool in Excel is Goal Seek. Assuming that you know the single outcome you would like to achieve, the Goal Seek feature in Excel allows you to arrive at that goal by mathematically adjusting a single variable within the equation.

To illustrate how it works, imagine that the bank is offering an interest rate of 9% per annum on personal loans with 24 months to repay, and that you would like to borrow $40,000. 

Using the above information, the bank calculates that the amount borrowed plus interest over the loan period will be $47,200, as shown in cell B5. The amount to be paid each month is also calculated and shown in cell B6.

By using the Goal Seek command, we can indicate a desired outcome and Excel will determine the adjustment we need to make to a single variable.

In the example above, cell B5 is dependent on the variables in cells B1, B2, and B3. Cell B6 is dependent on cells B3 and B5. Therefore, if we determine that the monthly repayment amount quoted is higher than desired, we can use Goal Seek to set the monthly amount to $1750. Excel can work backwards to change either cell B1, B2, or B3 to reach that goal.

Practically speaking, we may not have much control over the interest rate, so it is more likely that we have the option of adjusting the amount we borrow, or the repayment period. 

Our first inclination may be to find out how much we will be able to borrow if we pay $1750 per month and all other variables remain the same. Excel will change the principal (B1) based on the number we enter as the new value for cell B6.

Assuming that the interest amount (9%) and loan period (24 months) remain the same, the new principal amount is calculated and displayed in cell B1 if a valid solution exists.

Points to note:

1. The cell chosen in the “Set cell” field must be a cell containing a formula.
2. The cell chosen in the “By changing cell” field must be a cell containing a constant.
3. Once “OK” is selected from the Goal Seek Status window, the values on the worksheet are adjusted and are only retrievable by selecting the ‘Undo’ command (Ctrl+Z Windows shortcut/Cmd+Z Mac shortcut).

Scenario Manager

Another what if analysis tool is the Scenario Manager. This option is somewhat more advanced than Goal Seek in that it allows the adjustment of multiple variables at the same time. 

Some other noticeable differences between Goal Seek and Scenario Manager are listed below:

• The Scenario Manager allows the creation of an unlimited number of possible scenarios by changing up to 32 variables at a time.
• Each scenario can be saved for comparative purposes.
• Scenarios may be named and edited, and a brief description provided.
• Only constant values should be changed within the Scenario Manager — cells with formulas should not be manually adjusted.

If we continue our bank loan example, we can determine our model’s sensitivity to change by adjusting any or all of the values in cell B1, B2, or B3.

Best practice

As a best practice, the original worksheet data should be saved as a scenario so that you can revert to it after all the experiments have been completed.

Step 1 — Click ‘What If Analysis’ from the Data tab and select Scenario Manager.

Step 2 — Click ‘Add’ from the Scenario Manager pop-up window.

Step 3 — Name this scenario “Original” and enter the cell references of all cells with constant values that you may consider changing in other scenarios (maximum 32 cells). Click OK.

Step 4 — For the “Original” scenario, do not adjust any values in the ‘Scenario Values’ window.

Step 5 — Click ‘Add’ to create your first experimental scenario.

Creating experimental scenarios

When creating an experimental scenario, give the scenario a descriptive name from the ‘Add Scenario’ pop-up window. The changing cells will be the same as the ones referenced in your ‘Original’ scenario. 

Even if you will not be adjusting all the values in those cells, it is highly recommended that they remain referenced in the ‘changing cells’ field. You may place additional details about the experimental scenario in the ‘Comment’ field (see below).

As illustrated above, our experimental scenario is given the name “36 months” and refers to cells B1 to B3 as changing cells. An additional comment indicates that this scenario is to determine the effect of borrowing $40,000 over a 36-month period.

In the ‘Scenario Values’ window, each changing cell is displayed as a field where we can manipulate the constant value so as to affect the outcome of the dependent cells — in our case, cells B5 and B6. As described in our scenario name and comments, we only adjust cell B3 by changing the value to 36.

To add another scenario at this point, select ‘Add’. If not, click OK. 

Adjust multiple variables

To experiment with adjusting multiple variables within one scenario, the steps are the same as above, with the exception that the desired changes would be made in the Scenario Values window.

For example, to get Excel to perform a what if analysis on borrowing $50,000 over a 36-month period in the above situation at the same rate of interest, we would simply adjust the fields referencing those variables after creating a new scenario. Excel’s Scenario Manager can handle an unlimited number of scenarios created in this same way. 

A list of created scenarios can be viewed by clicking OK from the Scenario Values window, or by selecting Scenario Manager from the What If Analysis dropdown menu.

To see the outcome of each adjustment on the output cell(s), either double click on a scenario name, or highlight a name and click Show. 

Scenario summary

Scenarios that have been created may also be compared side by side with the creation of a Scenario summary worksheet, which is generated by selecting ‘Summary’ from the Scenario Manager window. 

There are two report types available — Scenario summary and Scenario PivotTable report. Result cells are the cells that will be displayed in the summary. Ideally, these should include all cells which were adjusted as well as result cells. It’s also a good idea to select cells that contain header names so that these are clearly displayed in the summary.

Choosing the ‘Scenario summary’ option will create a new sheet within the workbook that displays each scenario in columnar format. Changing Cells are highlighted in gray, and Result Cells are displayed under Changing Cells.

Note that if named ranges were created for Changing or Result Cells, range names will be displayed instead of cell references.

Selecting the Scenario PivotTable report type will create a pivot table report in a new worksheet. Learn more about pivot tables from our Resource Library.

Using data tables for what if analysis

The third what if analysis tool from the Forecast command group is the Data Table. Data tables allow the adjustment of only one or two variables within a dataset, but each variable can have an unlimited number of possible values. Data tables are designed for side-by-side comparisons in a way that makes them easier to read than scenarios, once they are set up correctly.

Data tables are under-utilized, but are not as scary as they may seem.

One-variable data tables 

If the only variable to be considered in our loan example were the amount being borrowed, we could set up a one-variable data table.

Step 1 — make a list of all possible principal loan amounts. The list may be by column or row. In our example, we will enter a column list in the range D9 to D12.

Step 2 — In an adjacent column, enter the formula which was used to arrive at the original outcome. In this case, we can simply type =B6 in cell E8. This links our new data table to the original variables. 

Step 3 — Select the entire data table range, including the list of variable values, the formula, and blank cells. 

Step 4 — From the What If Analysis dropdown menu, select Data Table. 

Step 5 — In the column input cell field (since we entered our variables in column format), enter the cell reference that was used to calculate the result in the original dataset. In the above example, this would be cell B1 since this is the variable we have adjusted. No value is entered in the ‘Row input cell’ field in this instance since this is a one-variable data table.

Step 6 — Select OK. The result is a list of outcomes created by adjusting the one variable in cell B1, assuming that all other variables remain constant.

To create a row-oriented data table, the variables would be listed horizontally, and the row input cell would be used in the Data Table window instead of the column input cell.

Two-variable data tables

When creating a two-variable data table, one set of values is listed horizontally and the other set is listed vertically. In our example, we will add the loan period (term) as our second variable, displayed horizontally.

In this case, the formula which was used to arrive at the original outcome must be replicated above the vertical list of variables. As shown below, we type =B6 in cell D7. This links our new data table to the original variables. 

As before, highlight the entire data table range and select Data Table from the What If Analysis menu. The row input cell is the cell reference (B3) that corresponds to the horizontal variables from the original dataset, while the column input cell (B1) corresponds to the vertical variables.

When we select OK, Excel returns a matrix that can be used to compare the outcome of different changes to our original scenario. It may be necessary to adjust the output cells to the appropriate number format for your data type (in the case of the above example, currency).

Summary

Now that you’ve taken the time to demystify how to do a what if analysis in Excel by using these three main tools, why not experiment with using them in different settings — like budget management, profit margin percentages, project completion targets, and the like? 

Once you get the hang of these, you’ll want to check out our resource center and take our Basic and Advanced Excel course to become a real pro!