What if analysis in excel 2016

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Introduction

Excel includes many powerful tools to perform complex mathematical calculations, including what-if analysis. This feature can help you experiment and answer questions with your data, even when the data is incomplete. In this lesson, you will learn how to use a what-if analysis tool called Goal Seek.

Optional: Download our practice workbook.

Watch the video below to learn more about what-if analysis and Goal Seek.

Goal Seek

Whenever you create a formula or function in Excel, you put various parts together to calculate a result. Goal Seek works in the opposite way: It lets you start with the desired result, and it calculates the input value that will give you that result. We’ll use a few examples to show how to use Goal Seek.

To use Goal Seek (example 1):

Let’s say you’re enrolled in a class. You currently have a grade of 65, and you need at least a 70 to pass the class. Luckily, you have one final assignment that might be able to raise your average. You can use Goal Seek to find out what grade you need on the final assignment to pass the class.

In the image below, you can see that the grades on the first four assignments are 58, 70, 72, and 60. Even though we don’t know what the fifth grade will be, we can write a formula—or function—that calculates the final grade. In this case, each assignment is weighted equally, so all we have to do is average all five grades by typing =AVERAGE(B2:B6). Once we use Goal Seek, cell B6 will show us the minimum grade we’ll need to make on that assignment.

1. Select the cell with the value you want to change. Whenever you use Goal Seek, you’ll need to select a cell that already contains a formula or function. In our example, we’ll select cell B7 because it contains the formula =AVERAGE(B2:B6).

   

2. From the Data tab, click the What-If Analysis command, then select Goal Seek from the drop-down menu.

   

3. A dialog box will appear with three fields. The first field, Set cell:, will contain the desired result. In our example, cell B7 is already selected.

   The second field, To value:, is the desired result. In our example, we’ll enter 70 because we need to earn at least that to pass the class.

   The third field, By changing cell:, is the cell where Goal Seek will place its answer. In our example, we’ll select cell B6 because we want to determine the grade we need to earn on the final assignment.

4. When you’re done, click OK.

   

5. The dialog box will tell you if Goal Seek was able to find a solution. Click OK.

   

6. The result will appear in the specified cell. In our example, Goal Seek calculated that we will need to score at least a 90 on the final assignment to earn a passing grade.

   

To use Goal Seek (example 2):

Let’s say you’re planning an event and want to invite as many people as you can without exceeding a budget of $500. We can use Goal Seek to figure out how many people to invite. In our example below, cell B5 contains the formula =B2+B3*B4 to calculate the total cost of a room reservation, plus the cost per person.

1. Select the cell with the value you want to change. In our example, we’ll select cell B5.

   

2. From the Data tab, click the What-If Analysis command, then select Goal Seek from the drop-down menu.

   

3. A dialog box will appear with three fields. The first field, Set cell:, will contain the desired result. In our example, cell B5 is already selected.The second field, To value:, is the desired result. In our example, we’ll enter 500 because we only want to spend $500.

   The third field, By changing cell:, is the cell where Goal Seek will place its answer. In our example, we’ll select cell B4 because we want to know how many guests we can invite without spending more than $500.
4. When you’re done, click OK.

   

5. The dialog box will tell you if Goal Seek was able to find a solution. Click OK.
6. The result will appear in the specified cell. In our example, Goal Seek calculated the answer to be approximately 18.62. In this case, our final answer needs to be a whole number, so we’ll need to round the answer up or down. Because rounding up would cause us to exceed our budget, we’ll round down to 18 guests.

   

As you can see in the example above, some situations will require the answer to be a whole number. If Goal Seek gives you a decimal, you’ll need to round up or down, depending on the situation.

Other types of what-if analysis

For more advanced projects, you may want to consider the other types of what-if analysis: scenarios and data tables. Instead of starting from the desired result and working backward, like with Goal Seek, these options allow you to test multiple values and see how the results change.

• Scenarios let you substitute values for multiple cells (up to 32) at the same time. You can create as many scenarios as you want and then compare them without changing the values manually. In the example below, we’re using scenarios to compare different venues for an upcoming event.

  

For more information on scenarios, check out this article from Microsoft.

• Data tables allow you to take one or two variables in a formula and replace them with as many different values as you want, then view the results in a table. This option is especially powerful because it shows multiple results at the same time, unlike scenarios or Goal Seek. In the example below, we can view 24 possible results for a car loan.

  

For more information on data tables, check out this article from Microsoft.

Challenge!

1. Open our practice workbook.
2. Click the Challenge tab in the bottom-left of the workbook.
3. In cell B8, create a function that calculates the average of the sales in B2:B7.
4. The workbook shows Dave’s monthly sales amounts for the first half of the year. If he reaches a $200,000 mid-year average, he will receive a 5% bonus. Use Goal Seek to find how much he needs to sell in June in order to make the $200,000 average.
5. When you’re finished, your workbook should look like this:

   

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It would be a big mistake for anyone to chalk Excel up to a fancy calculator that simply creates fancy spreadsheets and performs calculations. It’s much more than that. It can also perform what-if analysis. 

There are all types of what-if analyses that Excel can do.   However, in this article, we’re going to cover three:

•  Data tables.   This lets you see how changing one or two values will affect the bottom line. 

• Goal seeking. This lets you to discover what it takes to reach a certain objective.

• Scenarios. This lets you set up and test different cases (best case scenario). 

Data Tables

Excel 2016 will support two types of data tables: a one variable data table and a two variable data table. The one variable data table substitutes a series of possible values for a single value in a formula.   A two variable table substitutes a series of possible values for two values in one formula.

If you’re lost as to what we mean at this point, don’t worry.   Let’s walk through it step by step. We’re going to do a what-if analysis with a one variable data table.

To start a what-if analysis, click the Data tab, then go to the What-if Analysis button in the Forecast group.

Choose Data Table from the dropdown menu.

You’ll then see this dialogue box:

The dialogue box above has two text boxes: Row Input Cell and Column Input Cell.

If you’re creating a one variable data table, you choose one cell in your worksheet to use as either the Row Input Cell or as the Column Input Cell. 

If you’re creating a two variable data table, then you fill in both text boxes. One cell becomes the Row Input cell that substitutes values you’ve entered across columns of a single row – and vice versa.

Let’s create a one variable data table to start with.

The spreadsheet shows sales forecast for a convenience store. 

In cell B17, pictured above, we’ve calculated our projected sales by adding last year’s sales and the amount we expect it to grow.  

Here is the formula we used.

Because we went to the Formula tab and clicked Create from Selection, then chose Left Column (pictured below), our formula reads:=Sales-2016+(Sales_2016*Growth_2014).

Now, note that we’ve entered various growth rates in cells B20 through B22 .   We’re going to insert these various values into the growth formula.

Here’s how we do it.

Copy the formula from B17 into C18 by going to cell C18 and typing the equal sign, then clicking on cell B17. By doing that, you’ve created the formula =Projected_Sales_2014.

Hit Enter.

Next, select the cell range B20:C22.  

Go to the Data tab and click What-If Analysis, then Data Table.

Click on cell B15 in the Column Input Cell, then click OK.

The projected values are then listed.

Now click cell C18, then click the Format Painter.   Drag it through cell range C20-C22.

Goal Seeking

Use Goal Seek when you already have an outcome in mind, such as a target sales amount. Goal Seek will allow you to figure out the numbers you need to hit to reach your goal.

To use Goal Seek, you click the What-If Analysis button and select Goal Seek from the dropdown menu.   You’ll need to select the cell that contains the formula with the result you want. This is called the Set Cell.   Next, you’ll indicate the target value that you want the formula to return, in addition to the location of the input value that can be changed to reach this target.

Let’s show you what we mean.

In the table above, we want to figure out how much sales will have to increase to reach a first quarter income of $100. 

We’ll start out by selecting cell B7.   Now go to the Data tab, click the What-If Analysis button, then Goal Seek.

Set the To Value box to 100 because that’s our goal. In the By Changing Cell field, click cell B2 (first quarter sales). Enter the absolute address.

Click OK.

Now we can look at our spreadsheet.

We see how our numbers must change to meet the goal.

Scenario Manager

The Scenario Manager allows you to create and save different input values that create different results. These are called scenarios. 

To set up a scenario, the first thing you have to do is identify the various cells whose values can vary in the scenarios.   Next, you select these cells, then click the Data tab and go to What-If Analysis, then Scenario Manager.

Click Add.

For our scenario, we’re going to do Most Likely Case.

Enter Most Likely Case in the Scenario Name box.

Click OK.

Now enter the values for the most likely case. 

Click Add to add another scenario.

When you’re finished adding scenarios, click OK.

Click on the scenario, then click Show to see the numbers change.

From this window, you can also produce a summary report. This shows the changing and resulting values for your scenarios, in addition to the current values.

Анализ «Что Если» в Excel позволяет попробовать различные значения (сценарии) для формул.
Следующий пример поможет Вам освоить Анализ «что если»  быстро и легко.

Предположим, у вас есть книжный магазин и есть 100 книг на продажу. Вы продаете определенный % книг по самой высокой цене в $ 50 и определенный % книг по более низкой цене $ 20.

Если вы продаете 60% книг по самой высокой цене, ячейка D10 вычисляет общую прибыль в размере 60 * $ 50 + 40 * $ 20 = $ 3800.

Скачать рассматриваемый пример Вы можете по этой ссылке: Пример анализа «что если» в Excel.

Создание различных сценариев

Что будет, если Вы продадите 70% книг по высокой цене? А что будет, если Вы продадите 80% книг? Или 90%, или 100%? Каждый другой процент продажи книг — это различный сценарий.
Вы можете использовать «Диспетчер сценариев» для создания этих сценариев.

Примечание: Вы можете просто ввести другой процент в ячейку C4, что бы увидеть результат в ячейке C10. Однако, Анализ «что если» позволит Вам сравнить результаты различных сценариев.

Итак, приступим.

1. На вкладке Данные выберите Анализ «что если» и выберите Диспетчер сценариев из списка.
Откроется диалоговое окно Диспетчер сценариев.

 2. Добавьте сценарий, нажав на кнопку Добавить.

3. Введите имя (60% книг по высокой цене), выберите ячейку C4 (% книг, которые продаются по высокой цене) для изменяемой ячейки и нажмите на кнопку OK.

4. Введите соответствующее значение 0,6 и нажмите на кнопку OK еще раз.

5. Далее, добавьте еще 4 других сценария (70%, 80%, 90% и 100% соответсвенно).

И, наконец, ваш Диспетчер сценариев должен соответствовать картинке ниже:

 

Примечание: чтобы увидеть результат сценария, выберите сценарий и нажмите на кнопку Вывести. Excel изменит значение ячейки C4 в соответствии со сценарием, что бы Вы смогли увидеть результат на листе.

Отчет по сценариям

Для того, чтобы легко сравнить результаты этих сценариев, выполните следующие действия:

1. Кликните по кнопке «Отчет» в Диспетчере сценариев.

2. Далее, выберите ячейку C10 (итого выручка) в качестве ячейки результата и нажмите ОК.

Результат:

Вывод: Если вы продаете 70% книг по высокой цене, то Вы получите общую выручку в размере $ 4100, если Вы продаете 80% книг по высокой цене, то Вы получаете общую прибыль в размере $ 4400 и т.д. Вот как легко можно использовать Анализ «что если» в Excel.

Подписывайтесь на нас в социальных сетях, оставляйте комментарии к статье. Надеюсь пример использования анализа «что если» в Excel Вам понравился.