Trend lines in excel - Word и Excel - помощь в работе с программами

Note: These steps apply to Office 2013 and newer versions. Looking for Office 2010 steps?

Add a trendline

Select a chart.
Select the + to the top right of the chart.
Select Trendline.

Note: Excel displays the Trendline option only if you select a chart that has more than one data series without selecting a data series.
In the Add Trendline dialog box, select any data series options you want, and click OK.

Format a trendline

Click anywhere in the chart.
On the Format tab, in the Current Selection group, select the trendline option in the dropdown list.
Click Format Selection.
In the Format Trendline pane, select a Trendline Option to choose the trendline you want for your chart. Formatting a trendline is a statistical way to measure data:
Set a value in the Forward and Backward fields to project your data into the future.

Add a moving average line

You can format your trendline to a moving average line.

Click anywhere in the chart.
On the Format tab, in the Current Selection group, select the trendline option in the dropdown list.
Click Format Selection.
In the Format Trendline pane, under Trendline Options, select Moving Average. Specify the points if necessary.

Note: The number of points in a moving average trendline equals the total number of points in the series less the number that you specify for the period.

Add a trend or moving average line to a chart in Office 2010

On an unstacked, 2-D, area, bar, column, line, stock, xy (scatter), or bubble chart, click the data series to which you want to add a trendline or moving average, or do the following to select the data series from a list of chart elements:
1. Click anywhere in the chart.
  
  This displays the Chart Tools, adding the Design, Layout, and Format tabs.
2. On the Format tab, in the Current Selection group, click the arrow next to the Chart Elements box, and then click the chart element that you want.
Note: If you select a chart that has more than one data series without selecting a data series, Excel displays the Add Trendline dialog box. In the list box, click the data series that you want, and then click OK.
On the Layout tab, in the Analysis group, click Trendline.

Do one of the following:

Click a predefined trendline option that you want to use.

Note: This applies a trendline without enabling you to select specific options.
Click More Trendline Options, and then in the Trendline Options category, under Trend/Regression Type, click the type of trendline that you want to use.

Use this type	To create
Linear	A linear trendline by using the following equation to calculate the least squares fit for a line: where m is the slope and b is the intercept.
Logarithmic	A logarithmic trendline by using the following equation to calculate the least squares fit through points: where c and b are constants, and ln is the natural logarithm function.
Polynomial	A polynomial or curvilinear trendline by using the following equation to calculate the least squares fit through points: where b and are constants.
Power	A power trendline by using the following equation to calculate the least squares fit through points: where c and b are constants. Note: This option is not available when your data includes negative or zero values.
Exponential	An exponential trendline by using the following equation to calculate the least squares fit through points: where c and b are constants, and e is the base of the natural logarithm. Note: This option is not available when your data includes negative or zero values.
Moving average	A moving average trendline by using the following equation: Note: The number of points in a moving average trendline equals the total number of points in the series less the number that you specify for the period.
R-squared value	A trendline that displays an R-squared value on a chart by using the following equation: This trendline option is available on the Options tab of the Add Trendline or Format Trendline dialog box. Note: The R-squared value that you can display with a trendline is not an adjusted R-squared value. For logarithmic, power, and exponential trendlines, Excel uses a transformed regression model.

If you select Polynomial, type the highest power for the independent variable in the Order box.
If you select Moving Average, type the number of periods that you want to use to calculate the moving average in the Period box.
If you add a moving average to an xy (scatter) chart, the moving average is based on the order of the x values plotted in the chart. To get the result that you want, you might have to sort the x values before you add a moving average.
If you add a trendline to a line, column, area, or bar chart, the trendline is calculated based on the assumption that the x values are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc.. This assumption is made whether the x-values are numeric or text. To base a trendline on numeric x values, you should use an xy (scatter) chart.
Excel automatically assigns a name to the trendline, but you can change it. In the Format Trendline dialog box, in the Trendline Options category, under Trendline Name, click Custom, and then type a name in the Custom box.

Tips:

You can also create a moving average, which smoothes out fluctuations in data and shows the pattern or trend more clearly.
If you change a chart or data series so that it can no longer support the associated trendline — for example, by changing the chart type to a 3-D chart or by changing the view of a PivotChart report or associated PivotTable report — the trendline no longer appears on the chart.
For line data without a chart, you can use AutoFill or one of the statistical functions, such as GROWTH() or TREND(), to create data for best-fit linear or exponential lines.

On an unstacked, 2-D, area, bar, column, line, stock, xy (scatter), or bubble chart, click the trendline that you want to change, or do the following to select it from a list of chart elements.
1. Click anywhere in the chart.
  
  This displays the Chart Tools, adding the Design, Layout, and Format tabs.
2. On the Format tab, in the Current Selection group, click the arrow next to the Chart Elements box, and then click the chart element that you want.
On the Layout tab, in the Analysis group, click Trendline, and then click More Trendline Options.
To change the color, style, or shadow options of the trendline, click the Line Color, Line Style, or Shadow category, and then select the options that you want.

On an unstacked, 2-D, area, bar, column, line, stock, xy (scatter), or bubble chart, click the trendline that you want to change, or do the following to select it from a list of chart elements.
1. Click anywhere in the chart.
  
  This displays the Chart Tools, adding the Design, Layout, and Format tabs.
2. On the Format tab, in the Current Selection group, click the arrow next to the Chart Elements box, and then click the chart element that you want.
On the Layout tab, in the Analysis group, click Trendline, and then click More Trendline Options.
To specify the number of periods that you want to include in a forecast, under Forecast, click a number in the Forward periods or Backward periods box.

On an unstacked, 2-D, area, bar, column, line, stock, xy (scatter), or bubble chart, click the trendline that you want to change, or do the following to select it from a list of chart elements.
1. Click anywhere in the chart.
  
  This displays the Chart Tools, adding the Design, Layout, and Format tabs.
2. On the Format tab, in the Current Selection group, click the arrow next to the Chart Elements box, and then click the chart element that you want.
On the Layout tab, in the Analysis group, click Trendline, and then click More Trendline Options.
Select the Set Intercept = check box, and then in the Set Intercept = box, type the value to specify the point on the vertical (value) axis where the trendline crosses the axis.

Note: You can do this only when you use an exponential, linear, or polynomial trendline.

On an unstacked, 2-D, area, bar, column, line, stock, xy (scatter), or bubble chart, click the trendline that you want to change, or do the following to select it from a list of chart elements.
1. Click anywhere in the chart.
  
  This displays the Chart Tools, adding the Design, Layout, and Format tabs.
2. On the Format tab, in the Current Selection group, click the arrow next to the Chart Elements box, and then click the chart element that you want.
On the Layout tab, in the Analysis group, click Trendline, and then click More Trendline Options.
To display the trendline equation on the chart, select the Display Equation on chart check box.

Note: You cannot display trendline equations for a moving average.

Tip: The trendline equation is rounded to make it more readable. However, you can change the number of digits for a selected trendline label in the Decimal places box on the Number tab of the Format Trendline Label dialog box. (Format tab, Current Selection group, Format Selection button).

On an unstacked, 2-D, area, bar, column, line, stock, xy (scatter), or bubble chart, click the trendline for which you want to display the R-squared value, or do the following to select the trendline from a list of chart elements:
1. Click anywhere in the chart.
  
  This displays the Chart Tools, adding the Design, Layout, and Format tabs.
2. On the Format tab, in the Current Selection group, click the arrow next to the Chart Elements box, and then click the chart element that you want.
On the Layout tab, in the Analysis group, click Trendline, and then click More Trendline Options.
On the Trendline Options tab, select Display R-squared value on chart.

Note: You cannot display an R-squared value for a moving average.

On an unstacked, 2-D, area, bar, column, line, stock, xy (scatter), or bubble chart, click the trendline that you want to remove, or do the following to select the trendline from a list of chart elements:
1. Click anywhere in the chart.
  
  This displays the Chart Tools, adding the Design, Layout, and Format tabs.
2. On the Format tab, in the Current Selection group, click the arrow next to the Chart Elements box, and then click the chart element that you want.
Do one of the following:
1. On the Layout tab, in the Analysis group, click Trendline, and then click None.
2. Press DELETE.

Tip: You can also remove a trendline immediately after you add it to the chart by clicking Undo on the Quick Access Toolbar, or by pressing CTRL+Z.

Источник

Trendline is applied for illustrating price change trends. The element of technical analysis is a geometrical representation of the mean values of the analyzed indicator.

Here’s how to add a trendline to a chart in Excel.

Adding a trendline to a chart

For example, let’s take average oil prices since 2000 from open sources. Type the analysis data in the spreadsheet:

Create a chart based on the spreadsheet. Select the range A1:P2 and click on the «Insert»-«Charts»-«Insert Line Chart»-«Line». Choose a simple graph out of the offered chart types. The horizontal direction represents year, and the vertical one shows price.

Right-click the chart itself. Click «Add Trendline».

The window for setting line parameters opens. Select the line type and enter R-squared value (the approximation accuracy value) in the chart.

A skew line appears on the chart.

Trendline in Excel is an approximating function chart. It is used for making predictions based on statistical data. To this end, we need to extend the line and determine its values.

If R2 = 1, the approximation error is zero. In our example, the choice of the linear approximation has given a low accuracy and poor result. The prediction will be inaccurate.

Note: that a trendline can not be added to the following types of charts and graphs:

radar;
circular;
surface;
doughnut;
stereogram;
stacked.

Equation of trendline in Excel

In the example above the linear approximation has been chosen only for illustrating the algorithm. The R-squared value demonstrates that the choice has not been successful.

It is necessary to choose the type of representation that will best illustrates the trend of changes in the data entered by the user. Let’s examine the options.

Linear approximation

Its geometric representation is a straight line. Hence, linear approximation is used to illustrate the indicator which increases or decreases at a constant rate.

Let’s consider the conditional number of contracts concluded by a manager for 10 months:

Based on the Excel spreadsheet data make a scatter chart (it will help illustrate a linear type):

Based.

Highlight the chart, select «Add Trendline». In the settings, select the linear type. Add the R-squared value and the equation of a trendline (simply tick the box at the bottom of the «Options» window).

We get the result:

Note that in the linear approximation type data points are located very close to the line. This type uses the following equation:

y = 4,503x + 6,1333

where 4,503 – slope indicator;
6,1333 — offset;
y — sequence of values,
x — period number.

The straight line on the graph shows a steady increase in the quality of the manager’s job. The R-squared value is equal to 0.9929, indicating a good agreement between the calculated straight line and the source data. Forecasts must be accurate.

To predict the number of concluded contracts, for example, in period 11, it is necessary to put number 11 instead of x in the equation. After calculating, we find out that in period 11 the manager will conclude 55-56 contracts.

The exponential trendline

This type is useful if the input values change with increasing speed. Exponential approximation is not applied if there are zero or negative characteristics.

Let’s create an exponential trendline in Excel. Take for example the conditional values of electric power supply in X region:

values.

Make the chart «Line with Markers». Add the exponential line.

The equation is as follows:

y = 7,6403е^-0,084x

where:

7.6403 and -0.084 – constants;
e – base of natural logarithm.

The indicator of R-squared value is 0.938, which means that the curve corresponds to the data, the error is minimal, and the forecasts will be accurate.

Logarithmic trendline and sales forecast

It is used for the following indicator changes: first, rapid growth or decrease, then — relative stability. The optimized curve adapts well to this value «behavior». The logarithmic trend is suitable for forecasting sales of a new product that has just entered the market.

The initial task of the manufacturer is to expand the customer base. When the goods have their buyer, it will be necessary to hold and serve him.

Make a chart and add a logarithmic trend line for a conditional product sales forecast:

R2 is close in value to 1 (0.9558), indicating the minimum error of approximation. Let’s forecast sales volume for further periods. To do this, put period number instead of x in the equation.

For example:

To calculate forecast figures we use the formula: =304.52*LN(A18)+101.57, where A18 is period number.

Polynomial trendline in Excel

This curve features alternate increase and decrease. The degree (by the number of minimum and maximum values) is determined for polynomials. For example, one extreme (minimum and maximum) is the second degree, two extremes make the third degree, three extremes – the fourth one.

A polynomial trend in Excel is used for the analysis of a large data set of unstable value. Let’s look at the example of the first set of values (oil prices).

Table of oil price dynamics by years:

Year	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Price per barrel	28.30	24.40	25.00	28.90	38.30	54.40	65.40	72.70	97.70	61.90	79.60	111.00	111.40	108.80	98.90	52.40

Download examples of graphs with a trendline

To get this R-squared value (0.9252), we had to put the sixth degree.

However, this trend allows for making more or less accurate predictions.

Источник

Содержание

Линия тренда в Excel
- Построение графика
- Создание линии тренда
- Настройка линии тренда
- Прогнозирование
Вопросы и ответы

Одной из важных составляющих любого анализа является определение основной тенденции событий. Имея эти данные можно составить прогноз дальнейшего развития ситуации. Особенно наглядно это видно на примере линии тренда на графике. Давайте выясним, как в программе Microsoft Excel её можно построить.

Приложение Эксель предоставляет возможность построение линии тренда при помощи графика. При этом, исходные данные для его формирования берутся из заранее подготовленной таблицы.

Построение графика

Для того, чтобы построить график, нужно иметь готовую таблицу, на основании которой он будет формироваться. В качестве примера возьмем данные о стоимости доллара в рублях за определенный период времени.

Строим таблицу, где в одном столбике будут располагаться временные отрезки (в нашем случае даты), а в другом – величина, динамика которой будет отображаться в графике.

Выделяем данную таблицу. Переходим во вкладку «Вставка». Там на ленте в блоке инструментов «Диаграммы» кликаем по кнопке «График». Из представленного списка выбираем самый первый вариант.

После этого график будет построен, но его нужно ещё доработать. Делаем заголовок графика. Для этого кликаем по нему. В появившейся группе вкладок «Работа с диаграммами» переходим во вкладку «Макет». В ней кликаем по кнопке «Название диаграммы». В открывшемся списке выбираем пункт «Над диаграммой».

В появившееся поле над графиком вписываем то название, которое считаем подходящим.

Затем подписываем оси. В той же вкладке «Макет» кликаем по кнопке на ленте «Названия осей». Последовательно переходим по пунктам «Название основной горизонтальной оси» и «Название под осью».

В появившемся поле вписываем название горизонтальной оси, согласно контексту расположенных на ней данных.

Для того, чтобы присвоить наименование вертикальной оси также используем вкладку «Макет». Кликаем по кнопке «Название осей». Последовательно перемещаемся по пунктам всплывающего меню «Название основной вертикальной оси» и «Повернутое название». Именно такой тип расположения наименования оси будет наиболее удобен для нашего вида диаграмм.

В появившемся поле наименования вертикальной оси вписываем нужное название.

Урок: Как сделать график в Excel

Создание линии тренда

Теперь нужно непосредственно добавить линию тренда.

Находясь во вкладке «Макет» кликаем по кнопке «Линия тренда», которая расположена в блоке инструментов «Анализ». Из открывшегося списка выбираем пункт «Экспоненциальное приближение» или «Линейное приближение».

После этого, линия тренда добавляется на график. По умолчанию она имеет черный цвет.

Настройка линии тренда

Имеется возможность дополнительной настройки линии.

Последовательно переходим во вкладке «Макет» по пунктам меню «Анализ», «Линия тренда» и «Дополнительные параметры линии тренда…».

Открывается окно параметров, можно произвести различные настройки. Например, можно выполнить изменение типа сглаживания и аппроксимации, выбрав один из шести пунктов:
- Полиномиальная;
- Линейная;
- Степенная;
- Логарифмическая;
- Экспоненциальная;
- Линейная фильтрация.
Для того, чтобы определить достоверность нашей модели, устанавливаем галочку около пункта «Поместить на диаграмму величину достоверности аппроксимации». Чтобы посмотреть результат, жмем на кнопку «Закрыть».

Если данный показатель равен 1, то модель максимально достоверна. Чем дальше уровень от единицы, тем меньше достоверность.

Если вас не удовлетворяет уровень достоверности, то можете вернуться опять в параметры и сменить тип сглаживания и аппроксимации. Затем, сформировать коэффициент заново.

Прогнозирование

Главной задачей линии тренда является возможность составить по ней прогноз дальнейшего развития событий.

Опять переходим в параметры. В блоке настроек «Прогноз» в соответствующих полях указываем насколько периодов вперед или назад нужно продолжить линию тренда для прогнозирования. Жмем на кнопку «Закрыть».

Опять переходим к графику. В нем видно, что линия удлинена. Теперь по ней можно определить, какой приблизительный показатель прогнозируется на определенную дату при сохранении текущей тенденции.

Как видим, в Эксель не составляет труда построить линию тренда. Программа предоставляет инструменты, чтобы её можно было настроить для максимально корректного отображения показателей. На основании графика можно сделать прогноз на конкретный временной период.

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Источник

A trendline, often called “the best-fit line,” is a line that shows the trend of the data. As you have seen in many charts, it shows the overall trend or pattern, or direction from the existing data points. Excel provides the option of plotting the trend line on the chart. When we add this trend line to the chart, it looks like a line chart without any ups and downs.

Excel Trend Line
- How to Add and Insert Trend Line in Excel?
- How to Format the Trendline in Excel Chart?
- Things to Remember
- Recommended Articles

How to Add and Insert Trend Line in Excel?

You can download this Trend Line Excel Template here – Trend Line Excel Template

To add a trendline in Excel, we need to insert the chart for the available data. Before adding a trend line, remember the Excel charts supporting the trendline. For example, we can add a trendline to a column chart, line chart, bar chart, scattered chart or XY chart, stock chart, or In Excel, a bubble chart is a type of scatter plot that uses bubbles to display values and comparisons. Like scatter plots, bubble charts compare data on both horizontal and vertical axes.read more.

But we cannot add a trendline to 3-D or stacked charts, radar charts, Making a pie chart in excel can help you with the pictorial representation of your data and simplifies the analysis process. There are multiple kinds of pie chart options available on excel to serve the varying user needs.read more, and similar kinds of charts.

The best example of plotting a trendline is monthly sales numbers. Below are the monthly sales numbers to create a chart.
To add a trendline, we need to create a column or line chart in Excel for the above data. Therefore, we will insert a column chart in Excel for this data.
Once the chart is inserted, adding the trend line is easy in Excel 2013 and the above versions. Select the chart. It will show the PLUS icon on the right side.
Click on this PLUS icon to see various options related to this chart. For example, we can see the “Trendline” option at the end of the options. Click on this to add a trend line.
So, our trendline is added to the chart. If you have inserted the LINE CHART in place of COLUMN CHART, all the steps are the same as inserting the trendline in Excel.

We can also add trend lines in multiple ways. Another way is to select column bars and right-click on the bars to see options. From the options, choose “ADD TRENDLINE.”

It will add the default trend line of “Linear Trend Line.” The best-fit trend line shows whether the data is trending upwards or downwards.

We have several trend line types, below are the types of the trend line.

Exponential Trendline
Linear Trendline
Logarithmic Trendline
Polynomial Trendline
Power Trendline
Moving Average Trendline

All these trendlines are part of the statistics. One of the other popular trendlines is the “Moving Average” trendline.

The “Moving Average” trendline shows the trend of the average of a specific number of periods. For example, the quarterly trend of the data. Right-click on column bars to apply the moving average trendline and choose “Add Trendline.” It will open the “Format Trendline” window to the right end of the worksheet.

In the above window, choose the “Moving Average” option and set the period to 2. It will add the trendline for the average of every 2 periods.

How to Format the Trendline in Excel Chart?

The default trendline does not have any special effects on the trend line. Therefore, we need to format the trend line to make it more appealing.

Select the trend line and press Ctrl +1. Then, in the “Format Trendline” window, choose “FILL” and “LINE,” make the width 2 pt, and the color dark blue.

This Excel trendline can also forecast the sales numbers for the next months. To do this, go to “Trendline Options, “Forecast,” and make “Forward” to 3 periods.

As shown in the above image, we have added a forward trend for 3 periods, increasing the trend line for 3 months.

From this chart, our trendline shows a continuous decline in sales numbers.