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Population
World Population

Current World Population

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Population Growth today

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Population Growth this year

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World Population: Past, Present, and Future

(move and expand the bar at the bottom of the chart to navigate through time)

The chart above illustrates how world population has changed throughout history. View the full tabulated data.

At the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the population of the world was approximately 5 million. Over the 8,000-year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to 200 million (some estimate 300 million or even 600, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be), with a growth rate of under 0.05% per year.

A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in 30 years (1960), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).

During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.
In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.
Because of declining growth rates, it will now take over 200 years to double again.

Wonder how big was the world’s population when you were born?
Check out this simple wizard or this more elaborated one to find out.

Sources:

World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision — United Nations Population Division
The World at Six Billion, World Population, Year 0 to near stabilization [Pdf file] — United Nations Population Division

Growth Rate

Population in the world is, as of 2022, growing at a rate of around 0.84% per year (down from 1.05% in 2020, 1.08% in 2019, 1.10% in 2018, and 1.12% in 2017). The current population increase is estimated at 67 million people per year.

Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was at around 2%. The rate of increase has nearly halved since then, and will continue to decline in the coming years.

World population will therefore continue to grow in the 21st century, but at a much slower rate compared to the recent past. World population has doubled (100% increase) in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to 1999 (6 billion). It is now estimated that it will take another nearly 40 years to increase by another 50% to become 9 billion by 2037.

The latest world population projections indicate that world population will reach 10 billion persons in the year 2057.

World Population (2020 and historical)

View the complete population historical table

Year (July 1)	Population	Yearly % Change	Yearly Change	Median Age	Fertility Rate	Density (P/Km²)
2020	7,794,798,739	1.05 %	81,330,639	30.9	2.47	52
2019	7,713,468,100	1.08 %	82,377,060	29.8	2.51	52
2018	7,631,091,040	1.10 %	83,232,115	29.8	2.51	51
2017	7,547,858,925	1.12 %	83,836,876	29.8	2.51	51
2016	7,464,022,049	1.14 %	84,224,910	29.8	2.51	50
2015	7,379,797,139	1.19 %	84,594,707	30	2.52	50
2010	6,956,823,603	1.24 %	82,983,315	28	2.58	47
2005	6,541,907,027	1.26 %	79,682,641	27	2.65	44
2000	6,143,493,823	1.35 %	79,856,169	26	2.78	41
1995	5,744,212,979	1.52 %	83,396,384	25	3.01	39
1990	5,327,231,061	1.81 %	91,261,864	24	3.44	36
1985	4,870,921,740	1.79 %	82,583,645	23	3.59	33
1980	4,458,003,514	1.79 %	75,704,582	23	3.86	30
1975	4,079,480,606	1.97 %	75,808,712	22	4.47	27
1970	3,700,437,046	2.07 %	72,170,690	22	4.93	25
1965	3,339,583,597	1.93 %	60,926,770	22	5.02	22
1960	3,034,949,748	1.82 %	52,385,962	23	4.90	20
1955	2,773,019,936	1.80 %	47,317,757	23	4.97	19

World Population Forecast (2020-2050)

View population projections for all years (up to 2100)

Year (July 1)	Population	Yearly % Change	Yearly Change	Median Age	Fertility Rate	Density (P/Km²)
2020	7,794,798,739	1.10 %	83,000,320	31	2.47	52
2025	8,184,437,460	0.98 %	77,927,744	32	2.54	55
2030	8,548,487,400	0.87 %	72,809,988	33	2.62	57
2035	8,887,524,213	0.78 %	67,807,363	34	2.70	60
2040	9,198,847,240	0.69 %	62,264,605	35	2.77	62
2045	9,481,803,274	0.61 %	56,591,207	35	2.85	64
2050	9,735,033,990	0.53 %	50,646,143	36	2.95	65

World Population Milestones

10 Billion (2058)

The United Nations projects world population to reach 10 billion in the year 2058.

9 Billion (2037)

World population is expected to reach 9 billion in the year 2037.

8 Billion (2022)

World population has reached 8 billion people on November 15, 2022 according to the United Nations.

7 Billion (2010)

According to the latest revision by the United Nations (released in 2022), world population reached 7 Billion in late 2010 (this was previously estimated as occurring on October 31, 2011). The US Census Bureau made a lower estimate, for which the 7 billion mark was only reached on March 12, 2012.

6 Billion (1998)

According to the latest revision by the United Nations (released in 2022), the 6 billion figure was reached towards the end of 1998 (this was previously estimated as occurring on October 12, 1999, celebrated as the Day of 6 Billion). According to the U.S. Census Bureau instead, the six billion milestone was reached on July 22, 1999, at about 3:49 AM GMT. Yet, according to the U.S. Census, the date and time of when 6 billion was reached will probably change because the already uncertain estimates are constantly being updated.

Previous Milestones

5 Billion: 1987
4 Billion: 1974
3 Billion: 1960
2 Billion: 1930
1 Billion: 1804

Summary Table

1 — 1804 (1803 years): 0.2 to 1 bil.

1804 — 2022 (218 years): from 1 billion to 8 billion

Year	1	1000	1500	1650	1750	1804	1850	1900	1930	1950	1960	1974	1980	1987	1998	2010	2022	2029	2037	2046	2058	2100
Population	0.2	0.275	0.45	0.5	0.7	1	1.2	1.6	2	2.55	3	4	4.5	5	6	7	8	8.5	9	9.5	10	10.3

World Population by Region

#	Region	Population (2020)	Yearly Change	Net Change	Density (P/Km²)	Land Area (Km²)	Migrants (net)	Fert. Rate	Med. Age	World Share
1	Asia	4,641,054,775	0.86 %	39,683,577	150	31,033,131	-1,729,112	2.2	32	59.5 %
2	Africa	1,340,598,147	2.49 %	32,533,952	45	29,648,481	-463,024	4.4	20	17.2 %
3	Europe	747,636,026	0.06 %	453,275	34	22,134,900	1,361,011	1.6	43	9.6 %
4	Latin America and the Caribbean	653,962,331	0.9 %	5,841,374	32	20,139,378	-521,499	2	31	8.4 %
5	Northern America	368,869,647	0.62 %	2,268,683	20	18,651,660	1,196,400	1.8	39	4.7 %
6	Oceania	42,677,813	1.31 %	549,778	5	8,486,460	156,226	2.4	33	0.5 %

World Population Density (people/km²)

Population density map of the world showing not only countries but also many subdivisions (regions, states, provinces). See also: World Map

Courtesy of Junuxx at en.wikipedia [CC-BY-SA-3.0 or GFDL], via Wikimedia Commons

World Population by Religion

According to a recent study (based on the 2010 world population of 6.9 billion) by The Pew Forum, there are:

2,173,180,000 Christians (31% of world population), of which 50% are Catholic, 37% Protestant, 12% Orthodox, and 1% other.
1,598,510,000 Muslims (23%), of which 87-90% are Sunnis, 10-13% Shia.
1,126,500,000 No Religion affiliation (16%): atheists, agnostics and people who
do not identify with any particular religion. One-in-five people (20%) in the United States are religiously unaffiliated.
1,033,080,000 Hindus (15%), the overwhelming majority (94%) of which live in India.
487,540,000 Buddhists (7%), of which half live in China.
405,120,000 Folk Religionists (6%): faiths that are closely associated with a particular
group of people, ethnicity or tribe.
58,110,000 Other Religions (1%): Baha’i faith, Taoism,
Jainism, Shintoism, Sikhism, Tenrikyo, Wicca, Zoroastrianism and many others.
13,850,000 Jews (0.2%), four-fifths of which live in two countries: United States (41%) and Israel (41%).

World Population by Country

#	Country (or dependency)	Population (2020)	Yearly Change	Net Change	Density (P/Km²)	Land Area (Km²)	Migrants (net)	Fert. Rate	Med. Age	Urban Pop %	World Share
1	China	1,439,323,776	0.39 %	5,540,090	153	9,388,211	-348,399	1.69	38	60.8 %	18.5 %
2	India	1,380,004,385	0.99 %	13,586,631	464	2,973,190	-532,687	2.2402	28	35 %	17.7 %
3	United States	331,002,651	0.59 %	1,937,734	36	9,147,420	954,806	1.7764	38	82.8 %	4.2 %
4	Indonesia	273,523,615	1.07 %	2,898,047	151	1,811,570	-98,955	2.3195	30	56.4 %	3.5 %
5	Pakistan	220,892,340	2 %	4,327,022	287	770,880	-233,379	3.55	23	35.1 %	2.8 %
6	Brazil	212,559,417	0.72 %	1,509,890	25	8,358,140	21,200	1.74	33	87.6 %	2.7 %
7	Nigeria	206,139,589	2.58 %	5,175,990	226	910,770	-60,000	5.4168	18	52 %	2.6 %
8	Bangladesh	164,689,383	1.01 %	1,643,222	1,265	130,170	-369,501	2.052	28	39.4 %	2.1 %
9	Russia	145,934,462	0.04 %	62,206	9	16,376,870	182,456	1.8205	40	73.7 %	1.9 %
10	Mexico	128,932,753	1.06 %	1,357,224	66	1,943,950	-60,000	2.14	29	83.8 %	1.7 %
11	Japan	126,476,461	-0.3 %	-383,840	347	364,555	71,560	1.3697	48	91.8 %	1.6 %
12	Ethiopia	114,963,588	2.57 %	2,884,858	115	1,000,000	30,000	4.3	19	21.3 %	1.5 %
13	Philippines	109,581,078	1.35 %	1,464,463	368	298,170	-67,152	2.58	26	47.5 %	1.4 %
14	Egypt	102,334,404	1.94 %	1,946,331	103	995,450	-38,033	3.33	25	43 %	1.3 %
15	Vietnam	97,338,579	0.91 %	876,473	314	310,070	-80,000	2.0556	32	37.7 %	1.2 %
16	DR Congo	89,561,403	3.19 %	2,770,836	40	2,267,050	23,861	5.9635	17	45.6 %	1.1 %
17	Turkey	84,339,067	1.09 %	909,452	110	769,630	283,922	2.08	32	75.7 %	1.1 %
18	Iran	83,992,949	1.3 %	1,079,043	52	1,628,550	-55,000	2.15	32	75.5 %	1.1 %
19	Germany	83,783,942	0.32 %	266,897	240	348,560	543,822	1.586	46	76.3 %	1.1 %
20	Thailand	69,799,978	0.25 %	174,396	137	510,890	19,444	1.5346	40	51.1 %	0.9 %
21	United Kingdom	67,886,011	0.53 %	355,839	281	241,930	260,650	1.75	40	83.2 %	0.9 %
22	France	65,273,511	0.22 %	143,783	119	547,557	36,527	1.8523	42	81.5 %	0.8 %
23	Italy	60,461,826	-0.15 %	-88,249	206	294,140	148,943	1.33	47	69.5 %	0.8 %
24	Tanzania	59,734,218	2.98 %	1,728,755	67	885,800	-40,076	4.9237	18	37 %	0.8 %
25	South Africa	59,308,690	1.28 %	750,420	49	1,213,090	145,405	2.4139	28	66.7 %	0.8 %
26	Myanmar	54,409,800	0.67 %	364,380	83	653,290	-163,313	2.17	29	31.4 %	0.7 %
27	Kenya	53,771,296	2.28 %	1,197,323	94	569,140	-10,000	3.52	20	27.8 %	0.7 %
28	South Korea	51,269,185	0.09 %	43,877	527	97,230	11,731	1.11	44	81.8 %	0.7 %
29	Colombia	50,882,891	1.08 %	543,448	46	1,109,500	204,796	1.82	31	80.4 %	0.7 %
30	Spain	46,754,778	0.04 %	18,002	94	498,800	40,000	1.33	45	80.3 %	0.6 %
31	Uganda	45,741,007	3.32 %	1,471,413	229	199,810	168,694	5.01	17	25.7 %	0.6 %
32	Argentina	45,195,774	0.93 %	415,097	17	2,736,690	4,800	2.268	32	92.8 %	0.6 %
33	Algeria	43,851,044	1.85 %	797,990	18	2,381,740	-10,000	3.05	29	72.9 %	0.6 %
34	Sudan	43,849,260	2.42 %	1,036,022	25	1,765,048	-50,000	4.4345	20	35 %	0.6 %
35	Ukraine	43,733,762	-0.59 %	-259,876	75	579,320	10,000	1.4435	41	69.4 %	0.6 %
36	Iraq	40,222,493	2.32 %	912,710	93	434,320	7,834	3.682	21	73.1 %	0.5 %
37	Afghanistan	38,928,346	2.33 %	886,592	60	652,860	-62,920	4.5552	18	25.4 %	0.5 %
38	Poland	37,846,611	-0.11 %	-41,157	124	306,230	-29,395	1.4202	42	60.2 %	0.5 %
39	Canada	37,742,154	0.89 %	331,107	4	9,093,510	242,032	1.525	41	81.3 %	0.5 %
40	Morocco	36,910,560	1.2 %	438,791	83	446,300	-51,419	2.42	30	63.8 %	0.5 %
41	Saudi Arabia	34,813,871	1.59 %	545,343	16	2,149,690	134,979	2.34	32	84 %	0.4 %
42	Uzbekistan	33,469,203	1.48 %	487,487	79	425,400	-8,863	2.43	28	50.1 %	0.4 %
43	Peru	32,971,854	1.42 %	461,401	26	1,280,000	99,069	2.27	31	79.1 %	0.4 %
44	Angola	32,866,272	3.27 %	1,040,977	26	1,246,700	6,413	5.55	17	66.7 %	0.4 %
45	Malaysia	32,365,999	1.3 %	416,222	99	328,550	50,000	2.0105	30	78.4 %	0.4 %
46	Mozambique	31,255,435	2.93 %	889,399	40	786,380	-5,000	4.8858	18	38.3 %	0.4 %
47	Ghana	31,072,940	2.15 %	655,084	137	227,540	-10,000	3.8928	22	56.7 %	0.4 %
48	Yemen	29,825,964	2.28 %	664,042	56	527,970	-30,000	3.8372	20	38.4 %	0.4 %
49	Nepal	29,136,808	1.85 %	528,098	203	143,350	41,710	1.934	25	21.4 %	0.4 %
50	Venezuela	28,435,940	-0.28 %	-79,889	32	882,050	-653,249	2.283	30	N.A.	0.4 %
51	Madagascar	27,691,018	2.68 %	721,711	48	581,795	-1,500	4.1085	20	38.5 %	0.4 %
52	Cameroon	26,545,863	2.59 %	669,483	56	472,710	-4,800	4.603	19	56.3 %	0.3 %
53	Côte d’Ivoire	26,378,274	2.57 %	661,730	83	318,000	-8,000	4.68	19	51.3 %	0.3 %
54	North Korea	25,778,816	0.44 %	112,655	214	120,410	-5,403	1.91	35	62.5 %	0.3 %
55	Australia	25,499,884	1.18 %	296,686	3	7,682,300	158,246	1.8316	38	85.9 %	0.3 %
56	Niger	24,206,644	3.84 %	895,929	19	1,266,700	4,000	6.95	15	16.5 %	0.3 %
57	Taiwan	23,816,775	0.18 %	42,899	673	35,410	30,001	1.15	42	78.9 %	0.3 %
58	Sri Lanka	21,413,249	0.42 %	89,516	341	62,710	-97,986	2.2102	34	18.4 %	0.3 %
59	Burkina Faso	20,903,273	2.86 %	581,895	76	273,600	-25,000	5.2315	18	30.6 %	0.3 %
60	Mali	20,250,833	3.02 %	592,802	17	1,220,190	-40,000	5.9215	16	44 %	0.3 %
61	Romania	19,237,691	-0.66 %	-126,866	84	230,170	-73,999	1.6198	43	54.6 %	0.2 %
62	Malawi	19,129,952	2.69 %	501,205	203	94,280	-16,053	4.25	18	18.5 %	0.2 %
63	Chile	19,116,201	0.87 %	164,163	26	743,532	111,708	1.65	35	84.8 %	0.2 %
64	Kazakhstan	18,776,707	1.21 %	225,280	7	2,699,700	-18,000	2.7638	31	57.7 %	0.2 %
65	Zambia	18,383,955	2.93 %	522,925	25	743,390	-8,000	4.6555	18	45.3 %	0.2 %
66	Guatemala	17,915,568	1.9 %	334,096	167	107,160	-9,215	2.8989	23	51.8 %	0.2 %
67	Ecuador	17,643,054	1.55 %	269,392	71	248,360	36,400	2.44	28	63 %	0.2 %
68	Syria	17,500,658	2.52 %	430,523	95	183,630	-427,391	2.8398	26	60 %	0.2 %
69	Netherlands	17,134,872	0.22 %	37,742	508	33,720	16,000	1.66	43	92.5 %	0.2 %
70	Senegal	16,743,927	2.75 %	447,563	87	192,530	-20,000	4.65	19	49.4 %	0.2 %
71	Cambodia	16,718,965	1.41 %	232,423	95	176,520	-30,000	2.5238	26	24.2 %	0.2 %
72	Chad	16,425,864	3 %	478,988	13	1,259,200	2,000	5.7973	17	23.3 %	0.2 %
73	Somalia	15,893,222	2.92 %	450,317	25	627,340	-40,000	6.12	17	46.8 %	0.2 %
74	Zimbabwe	14,862,924	1.48 %	217,456	38	386,850	-116,858	3.6255	19	38.4 %	0.2 %
75	Guinea	13,132,795	2.83 %	361,549	53	245,720	-4,000	4.7384	18	38.6 %	0.2 %
76	Rwanda	12,952,218	2.58 %	325,268	525	24,670	-9,000	4.1	20	17.6 %	0.2 %
77	Benin	12,123,200	2.73 %	322,049	108	112,760	-2,000	4.8675	19	48.4 %	0.2 %
78	Burundi	11,890,784	3.12 %	360,204	463	25,680	2,001	5.45	17	13.8 %	0.2 %
79	Tunisia	11,818,619	1.06 %	123,900	76	155,360	-4,000	2.2	33	70.1 %	0.2 %
80	Bolivia	11,673,021	1.39 %	159,921	11	1,083,300	-9,504	2.75	26	69.3 %	0.1 %
81	Belgium	11,589,623	0.44 %	50,295	383	30,280	48,000	1.7148	42	98.3 %	0.1 %
82	Haiti	11,402,528	1.24 %	139,451	414	27,560	-35,000	2.96	24	56.9 %	0.1 %
83	Cuba	11,326,616	-0.06 %	-6,867	106	106,440	-14,400	1.6166	42	78.3 %	0.1 %
84	South Sudan	11,193,725	1.19 %	131,612	18	610,952	-174,200	4.7359	19	24.6 %	0.1 %
85	Dominican Republic	10,847,910	1.01 %	108,952	225	48,320	-30,000	2.36	28	84.5 %	0.1 %
86	Czech Republic (Czechia)	10,708,981	0.18 %	19,772	139	77,240	22,011	1.6413	43	73.5 %	0.1 %
87	Greece	10,423,054	-0.48 %	-50,401	81	128,900	-16,000	1.3024	46	84.9 %	0.1 %
88	Jordan	10,203,134	1 %	101,440	115	88,780	10,220	2.7723	24	91.5 %	0.1 %
89	Portugal	10,196,709	-0.29 %	-29,478	111	91,590	-6,000	1.288	46	66.5 %	0.1 %
90	Azerbaijan	10,139,177	0.91 %	91,459	123	82,658	1,200	2.0835	32	56.2 %	0.1 %
91	Sweden	10,099,265	0.63 %	62,886	25	410,340	40,000	1.85	41	88.2 %	0.1 %
92	Honduras	9,904,607	1.63 %	158,490	89	111,890	-6,800	2.4872	24	57.3 %	0.1 %
93	United Arab Emirates	9,890,402	1.23 %	119,873	118	83,600	40,000	1.42	33	86.4 %	0.1 %
94	Hungary	9,660,351	-0.25 %	-24,328	107	90,530	6,000	1.4911	43	71.7 %	0.1 %
95	Tajikistan	9,537,645	2.32 %	216,627	68	139,960	-20,000	3.6075	22	27.3 %	0.1 %
96	Belarus	9,449,323	-0.03 %	-3,088	47	202,910	8,730	1.7099	40	79.2 %	0.1 %
97	Austria	9,006,398	0.57 %	51,296	109	82,409	65,000	1.5292	43	57.3 %	0.1 %
98	Papua New Guinea	8,947,024	1.95 %	170,915	20	452,860	-800	3.5883	22	13.1 %	0.1 %
99	Serbia	8,737,371	-0.4 %	-34,864	100	87,460	4,000	1.4612	42	56.2 %	0.1 %
100	Israel	8,655,535	1.6 %	136,158	400	21,640	10,000	3.044	30	93.2 %	0.1 %
101	Switzerland	8,654,622	0.74 %	63,257	219	39,516	52,000	1.535	43	74.1 %	0.1 %
102	Togo	8,278,724	2.43 %	196,358	152	54,390	-2,000	4.3515	19	43.3 %	0.1 %
103	Sierra Leone	7,976,983	2.1 %	163,768	111	72,180	-4,200	4.319	19	43.3 %	0.1 %
104	Hong Kong	7,496,981	0.82 %	60,827	7,140	1,050	29,308	1.3262	45	N.A.	0.1 %
105	Laos	7,275,560	1.48 %	106,105	32	230,800	-14,704	2.7	24	35.7 %	0.1 %
106	Paraguay	7,132,538	1.25 %	87,902	18	397,300	-16,556	2.4455	26	61.6 %	0.1 %
107	Bulgaria	6,948,445	-0.74 %	-51,674	64	108,560	-4,800	1.5584	45	75.6 %	0.1 %
108	Libya	6,871,292	1.38 %	93,840	4	1,759,540	-1,999	2.25	29	78.2 %	0.1 %
109	Lebanon	6,825,445	-0.44 %	-30,268	667	10,230	-30,012	2.09	30	78.4 %	0.1 %
110	Nicaragua	6,624,554	1.21 %	79,052	55	120,340	-21,272	2.42	26	57.2 %	0.1 %
111	Kyrgyzstan	6,524,195	1.69 %	108,345	34	191,800	-4,000	3	26	35.6 %	0.1 %
112	El Salvador	6,486,205	0.51 %	32,652	313	20,720	-40,539	2.0529	28	73.4 %	0.1 %
113	Turkmenistan	6,031,200	1.5 %	89,111	13	469,930	-5,000	2.785	27	52.5 %	0.1 %
114	Singapore	5,850,342	0.79 %	46,005	8,358	700	27,028	1.209	42	N.A.	0.1 %
115	Denmark	5,792,202	0.35 %	20,326	137	42,430	15,200	1.7621	42	88.2 %	0.1 %
116	Finland	5,540,720	0.15 %	8,564	18	303,890	14,000	1.53	43	86.1 %	0.1 %
117	Congo	5,518,087	2.56 %	137,579	16	341,500	-4,000	4.45	19	69.9 %	0.1 %
118	Slovakia	5,459,642	0.05 %	2,629	114	48,088	1,485	1.502	41	53.7 %	0.1 %
119	Norway	5,421,241	0.79 %	42,384	15	365,268	28,000	1.68	40	83.4 %	0.1 %
120	Oman	5,106,626	2.65 %	131,640	16	309,500	87,400	2.93	31	87 %	0.1 %
121	State of Palestine	5,101,414	2.41 %	119,994	847	6,020	-10,563	3.6677	21	80 %	0.1 %
122	Costa Rica	5,094,118	0.92 %	46,557	100	51,060	4,200	1.7639	33	80 %	0.1 %
123	Liberia	5,057,681	2.44 %	120,307	53	96,320	-5,000	4.35	19	52.6 %	0.1 %
124	Ireland	4,937,786	1.13 %	55,291	72	68,890	23,604	1.8409	38	63 %	0.1 %
125	Central African Republic	4,829,767	1.78 %	84,582	8	622,980	-40,000	4.7541	18	43 %	0.1 %
126	New Zealand	4,822,233	0.82 %	39,170	18	263,310	14,881	1.9	38	86.9 %	0.1 %
127	Mauritania	4,649,658	2.74 %	123,962	5	1,030,700	5,000	4.585	20	56.9 %	0.1 %
128	Panama	4,314,767	1.61 %	68,328	58	74,340	11,200	2.4688	30	68 %	0.1 %
129	Kuwait	4,270,571	1.51 %	63,488	240	17,820	39,520	2.1	37	N.A.	0.1 %
130	Croatia	4,105,267	-0.61 %	-25,037	73	55,960	-8,001	1.4461	44	57.7 %	0.1 %
131	Moldova	4,033,963	-0.23 %	-9,300	123	32,850	-1,387	1.2552	38	42.7 %	0.1 %
132	Georgia	3,989,167	-0.19 %	-7,598	57	69,490	-10,000	2.0615	38	58.1 %	0.1 %
133	Eritrea	3,546,421	1.41 %	49,304	35	101,000	-39,858	4.1	19	63.3 %	0 %
134	Uruguay	3,473,730	0.35 %	11,996	20	175,020	-3,000	1.98	36	96.1 %	0 %
135	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3,280,819	-0.61 %	-20,181	64	51,000	-21,585	1.27	43	52.3 %	0 %
136	Mongolia	3,278,290	1.65 %	53,123	2	1,553,560	-852	2.9023	28	67.2 %	0 %
137	Armenia	2,963,243	0.19 %	5,512	104	28,470	-4,998	1.7559	35	62.8 %	0 %
138	Jamaica	2,961,167	0.44 %	12,888	273	10,830	-11,332	1.991	31	55.4 %	0 %
139	Qatar	2,881,053	1.73 %	48,986	248	11,610	40,000	1.8805	32	96.2 %	0 %
140	Albania	2,877,797	-0.11 %	-3,120	105	27,400	-14,000	1.62	36	63.5 %	0 %
141	Puerto Rico	2,860,853	-2.47 %	-72,555	323	8,870	-97,986	1.22	44	N.A.	0 %
142	Lithuania	2,722,289	-1.35 %	-37,338	43	62,674	-32,780	1.6698	45	71.3 %	0 %
143	Namibia	2,540,905	1.86 %	46,375	3	823,290	-4,806	3.4153	22	55.2 %	0 %
144	Gambia	2,416,668	2.94 %	68,962	239	10,120	-3,087	5.25	18	59.4 %	0 %
145	Botswana	2,351,627	2.08 %	47,930	4	566,730	3,000	2.8944	24	72.8 %	0 %
146	Gabon	2,225,734	2.45 %	53,155	9	257,670	3,260	4	23	87.1 %	0 %
147	Lesotho	2,142,249	0.8 %	16,981	71	30,360	-10,047	3.1641	24	31.5 %	0 %
148	North Macedonia	2,083,374	-0 %	-85	83	25,220	-1,000	1.5	39	58.6 %	0 %
149	Slovenia	2,078,938	0.01 %	284	103	20,140	2,000	1.6	45	55.2 %	0 %
150	Guinea-Bissau	1,968,001	2.45 %	47,079	70	28,120	-1,399	4.51	19	44.9 %	0 %
151	Latvia	1,886,198	-1.08 %	-20,545	30	62,200	-14,837	1.7167	44	68.6 %	0 %
152	Bahrain	1,701,575	3.68 %	60,403	2,239	760	47,800	1.9982	32	89.3 %	0 %
153	Equatorial Guinea	1,402,985	3.47 %	46,999	50	28,050	16,000	4.5543	22	73.3 %	0 %
154	Trinidad and Tobago	1,399,488	0.32 %	4,515	273	5,130	-800	1.7299	36	52.4 %	0 %
155	Estonia	1,326,535	0.07 %	887	31	42,390	3,911	1.5878	42	67.9 %	0 %
156	Timor-Leste	1,318,445	1.96 %	25,326	89	14,870	-5,385	4.1	21	32.8 %	0 %
157	Mauritius	1,271,768	0.17 %	2,100	626	2,030	0	1.3885	37	40.8 %	0 %
158	Cyprus	1,207,359	0.73 %	8,784	131	9,240	5,000	1.3375	37	66.8 %	0 %
159	Eswatini	1,160,164	1.05 %	12,034	67	17,200	-8,353	3.0257	21	30 %	0 %
160	Djibouti	988,000	1.48 %	14,440	43	23,180	900	2.7577	27	79 %	0 %
161	Fiji	896,445	0.73 %	6,492	49	18,270	-6,202	2.7874	28	59.1 %	0 %
162	Réunion	895,312	0.72 %	6,385	358	2,500	-1,256	2.2735	36	99.8 %	0 %
163	Comoros	869,601	2.2 %	18,715	467	1,861	-2,000	4.2365	20	29.4 %	0 %
164	Guyana	786,552	0.48 %	3,786	4	196,850	-6,000	2.4728	27	26.9 %	0 %
165	Bhutan	771,608	1.12 %	8,516	20	38,117	320	2	28	45.8 %	0 %
166	Solomon Islands	686,884	2.55 %	17,061	25	27,990	-1,600	4.435	20	23.2 %	0 %
167	Macao	649,335	1.39 %	8,890	21,645	30	5,000	1.2	39	N.A.	0 %
168	Montenegro	628,066	0.01 %	79	47	13,450	-480	1.7506	39	67.6 %	0 %
169	Luxembourg	625,978	1.66 %	10,249	242	2,590	9,741	1.45	40	88.2 %	0 %
170	Western Sahara	597,339	2.55 %	14,876	2	266,000	5,582	2.4149	28	86.8 %	0 %
171	Suriname	586,632	0.9 %	5,260	4	156,000	-1,000	2.4298	29	65.1 %	0 %
172	Cabo Verde	555,987	1.1 %	6,052	138	4,030	-1,342	2.2885	28	68 %	0 %
173	Micronesia	548,914	1 %	5,428	784	700	-2,957	2.858000189	27	68.2 %	0 %
174	Maldives	540,544	1.81 %	9,591	1,802	300	11,370	1.88	30	34.5 %	0 %
175	Malta	441,543	0.27 %	1,171	1,380	320	900	1.45	43	93.2 %	0 %
176	Brunei	437,479	0.97 %	4,194	83	5,270	0	1.8482	32	79.5 %	0 %
177	Guadeloupe	400,124	0.02 %	68	237	1,690	-1,440	2.17	44	N.A.	0 %
178	Belize	397,628	1.86 %	7,275	17	22,810	1,200	2.32	25	46.1 %	0 %
179	Bahamas	393,244	0.97 %	3,762	39	10,010	1,000	1.76	32	86.1 %	0 %
180	Martinique	375,265	-0.08 %	-289	354	1,060	-960	1.88	47	91.6 %	0 %
181	Iceland	341,243	0.65 %	2,212	3	100,250	380	1.77	37	94.4 %	0 %
182	Vanuatu	307,145	2.42 %	7,263	25	12,190	120	3.8	21	24.4 %	0 %
183	French Guiana	298,682	2.7 %	7,850	4	82,200	1,200	3.36	25	87.3 %	0 %
184	Barbados	287,375	0.12 %	350	668	430	-79	1.62	40	31.2 %	0 %
185	New Caledonia	285,498	0.97 %	2,748	16	18,280	502	1.97	34	71.9 %	0 %
186	French Polynesia	280,908	0.58 %	1,621	77	3,660	-1,000	1.95	34	64.1 %	0 %
187	Mayotte	272,815	2.5 %	6,665	728	375	0	3.7289	20	45.8 %	0 %
188	Sao Tome & Principe	219,159	1.91 %	4,103	228	960	-1,680	4.35	19	74 %	0 %
189	Samoa	198,414	0.67 %	1,317	70	2,830	-2,803	3.9029	22	18 %	0 %
190	Saint Lucia	183,627	0.46 %	837	301	610	0	1.4442	34	18.6 %	0 %
191	Channel Islands	173,863	0.93 %	1,604	915	190	1,351	1.502	43	29.8 %	0 %
192	Guam	168,775	0.89 %	1,481	313	540	-506	2.3193	31	94.9 %	0 %
193	Curaçao	164,093	0.41 %	669	370	444	515	1.76	42	88.7 %	0 %
194	Kiribati	119,449	1.57 %	1,843	147	810	-800	3.5836	23	57 %	0 %
195	Grenada	112,523	0.46 %	520	331	340	-200	2.0732	32	35.5 %	0 %
196	St. Vincent & Grenadines	110,940	0.32 %	351	284	390	-200	1.9019	33	52.9 %	0 %
197	Aruba	106,766	0.43 %	452	593	180	201	1.9	41	43.6 %	0 %
198	Tonga	105,695	1.15 %	1,201	147	720	-800	3.5763	22	24.3 %	0 %
199	U.S. Virgin Islands	104,425	-0.15 %	-153	298	350	-451	2.0458	43	96.3 %	0 %
200	Seychelles	98,347	0.62 %	608	214	460	-200	2.46	34	56.2 %	0 %
201	Antigua and Barbuda	97,929	0.84 %	811	223	440	0	2	34	26.2 %	0 %
202	Isle of Man	85,033	0.53 %	449	149	570		N.A.	N.A.	53.4 %	0 %
203	Andorra	77,265	0.16 %	123	164	470		N.A.	N.A.	87.8 %	0 %
204	Dominica	71,986	0.25 %	178	96	750		N.A.	N.A.	74.1 %	0 %
205	Cayman Islands	65,722	1.19 %	774	274	240		N.A.	N.A.	97.2 %	0 %
206	Bermuda	62,278	-0.36 %	-228	1,246	50		N.A.	N.A.	97.4 %	0 %
207	Marshall Islands	59,190	0.68 %	399	329	180		N.A.	N.A.	70 %	0 %
208	Northern Mariana Islands	57,559	0.6 %	343	125	460		N.A.	N.A.	88.3 %	0 %
209	Greenland	56,770	0.17 %	98	0	410,450		N.A.	N.A.	87.3 %	0 %
210	American Samoa	55,191	-0.22 %	-121	276	200		N.A.	N.A.	88.1 %	0 %
211	Saint Kitts & Nevis	53,199	0.71 %	376	205	260		N.A.	N.A.	32.9 %	0 %
212	Faeroe Islands	48,863	0.38 %	185	35	1,396		N.A.	N.A.	43.3 %	0 %
213	Sint Maarten	42,876	1.15 %	488	1,261	34		N.A.	N.A.	96.5 %	0 %
214	Monaco	39,242	0.71 %	278	26,337	1		N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	0 %
215	Turks and Caicos	38,717	1.38 %	526	41	950		N.A.	N.A.	89.3 %	0 %
216	Saint Martin	38,666	1.75 %	664	730	53		N.A.	N.A.	0 %	0 %
217	Liechtenstein	38,128	0.29 %	109	238	160		N.A.	N.A.	14.6 %	0 %
218	San Marino	33,931	0.21 %	71	566	60		N.A.	N.A.	97.1 %	0 %
219	Gibraltar	33,691	-0.03 %	-10	3,369	10		N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	0 %
220	British Virgin Islands	30,231	0.67 %	201	202	150		N.A.	N.A.	52.4 %	0 %
221	Caribbean Netherlands	26,223	0.94 %	244	80	328		N.A.	N.A.	75 %	0 %
222	Palau	18,094	0.48 %	86	39	460		N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	0 %
223	Cook Islands	17,564	0.09 %	16	73	240		N.A.	N.A.	75.3 %	0 %
224	Anguilla	15,003	0.9 %	134	167	90		N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	0 %
225	Tuvalu	11,792	1.25 %	146	393	30		N.A.	N.A.	62.4 %	0 %
226	Wallis & Futuna	11,239	-1.69 %	-193	80	140		N.A.	N.A.	0 %	0 %
227	Nauru	10,824	0.63 %	68	541	20		N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	0 %
228	Saint Barthelemy	9,877	0.3 %	30	470	21		N.A.	N.A.	0 %	0 %
229	Saint Helena	6,077	0.3 %	18	16	390		N.A.	N.A.	27.2 %	0 %
230	Saint Pierre & Miquelon	5,794	-0.48 %	-28	25	230		N.A.	N.A.	99.8 %	0 %
231	Montserrat	4,992	0.06 %	3	50	100		N.A.	N.A.	9.6 %	0 %
232	Falkland Islands	3,480	3.05 %	103	0	12,170		N.A.	N.A.	66 %	0 %
233	Niue	1,626	0.68 %	11	6	260		N.A.	N.A.	46.4 %	0 %
234	Tokelau	1,357	1.27 %	17	136	10		N.A.	N.A.	0 %	0 %
235	Holy See	801	0.25 %	2	2,003	0		N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	0 %

How many people have ever lived on earth?

It was written during the 1970s that 75% of the people who had ever been born were alive at that moment. This was grossly false.

Assuming that we start counting from about 50,000 B.C., the time when modern Homo sapiens appeared on the earth (and not from 700,000 B.C. when the ancestors of Homo sapiens appeared, or several million years ago when hominids were present), taking into account that all population data are a rough estimate, and assuming a constant growth rate applied to each period up to modern times, it has been estimated that a total of approximately 106 billion people have been born since the dawn of the human species, making the population currently alive roughly 6% of all people who have ever lived on planet Earth.

Others have estimated the number of human beings who have ever lived to be anywhere from 45 billion to 125 billion, with most estimates falling into the range of 90 to 110 billion humans.

World Population clock: sources and methodology

The world population counter displayed on Worldometer takes into consideration data from two major sources: the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs every two years calculates, updates, and publishes estimates of total population in its World Population Prospects series. These population estimates and projections provide the standard and consistent set of population figures that are used throughout the United Nations system.
The World Population Prospect: the 2022 Revision provides the most recent data available (released in July of 2022). Estimates and projected world population and country specific populations are given from 1950 through 2100 and are released every two years. Worldometer, as it is common practice, utilizes the medium fertility estimates.

Data underlying the population estimates are national and sub national census data and data on births, deaths, and migrants available from national sources and publications, as well as from questionnaires. For all countries, census and registration data are evaluated and, if necessary, adjusted for incompleteness by the Population Division as part of its preparations of the official United Nations population estimates and projections.
The International Programs Center at the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division also develops estimates and projections based on analysis of available data (based on census, survey, and administrative information) on population, fertility, mortality, and migration for each country or area of the world. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, world population reached 7 billion on March 12, 2012.
For most countries adjustment of the data is necessary to correct for errors, omissions, and inconsistencies in the data. Finally, since most recent data for a single country is often at least two years old, the current world population figure is necessarily a projection of past data based on assumed trends. As new data become available, assumptions and data are reevaluated and past conclusions and current figures may be modified.

For information about how these estimates and projections are made by the U.S. Census Bureau, see the Population Estimates and Projections Methodology.

Why Worldometer’s Population Clock is the most accurate

The above world population clock is based on the latest estimates released in July of 2022 by the United Nations. It will show the same number wherever you are in the world and whatever time you set on your PC.

Visitors around the world visiting a PC clock based counter, instead, will see different numbers depending on where they are located. This is the case with other world population clocks — such as the one hosted on a United Nations website, reaching 8 billion in 24 different instances (one per hour) on November 15, 2022, when each local time zone reached 12:10:08. Similarly, in 2011, the clocks on a UN website and on National Geographic — showed 7 billion whenever the visitor’s locally set PC clocks reached 4:21:10 AM on October 31, 2011.

Obviously, the UN data is based on estimates and can’t be 100% accurate, so in all honesty nobody can possibly say with any degree of certainty on which day world population reached 7 billion (or any other exact number), let alone at what time. But once an estimate is made (based on the best data and analysis available), the world population clock should be showing the same number at any given time anywhere around the world.

Источник

8,075,459,019	Current population
4,074,514,776	Current male population (50.5%)
4,000,944,242	Current female population (49.5%)
44,051,390	Births year to date
138,498	Births today
17,209,211	Deaths year to date
54,106	Deaths today
0	Net migration year to date
0	Net migration today
26,842,179	Population growth year to date
84,392	Population growth today

14-04-2023 08:47:36

Top 5 death causes clock
World population clock
Top 20 countries
Population in 2023
Demographics in 2022
Population density
Global religions
Global age structure
Global life expectancy
Global literacy
World historical population
Population projection

Top 5 death causes in the World

today		This year
Coronary artery disease
Connecting . . .	15.51 %	Connecting . . .
Stroke
Connecting . . .	11.06 %	Connecting . . .
Lower respiratory tract infection
Connecting . . .	5.65 %	Connecting . . .
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Connecting . . .	5.62 %	Connecting . . .
Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers
Connecting . . .	3.00 %	Connecting . . .

Source: deathmeters.info

World population — is the total number of humans currently living in the World.
As of today, the total population of the world is around 8.08 billion people.
The first billion was reached around 1800 and in just 200 years we reached 7 billion.

According to Population Division of United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs , these are the main milestones:

1 billion — 1804
2 billion — 1927 (in 123 years)
3 billion — 1960 (in 33 years)
4 billion — 1974 (in 14 years)
5 billion — 1987 (in 13 years)
6 billion — October 12, 1999 (in 12 years)
7 billion — October 31, 2011 (in 12 years)

World population is expected to reach 8 billion people in 2023 according to our estimates.

Currently, the world population is increasing by more than 90 million per year.
The Global sex ratio is 1.018. It means that we have slightly more men then women.
The median age of the world’s population is estimated to be 31 years in 2020 (30.3 and 31.8 for male and female accordingly)
.

More than 70% of the world population live in 20 most populous countries of the world. There are just 2 countries in the world with a population more than 1 billion people: China and India. About 36 % of the World population live just in these two countries. Despite the fact that China is curently the most populous country in the world, India’s population growths much faster. And in 2023 India is expected to become the most populous country in the world.

More than half of the world’s population identify with a religious group. The biggest groups are: Christianity (32%) and Islam (24%).

Top 20 most populous countries (14-04-2023)

1	China	1,461,045,393	18.09%
2	India	1,430,834,954	17.72%
3	United States of America (USA)	338,267,913	4.19%
4	Indonesia	283,666,973	3.51%
5	Pakistan	234,214,437	2.90%
6	Nigeria	221,948,529	2.75%
7	Brazil	218,202,414	2.70%
8	Bangladesh	170,417,652	2.11%
9	Russian Federation	146,099,960	1.81%
10	Mexico	134,109,402	1.66%
11	Japan	126,177,445	1.56%
12	Ethiopia	123,239,007	1.53%
13	Philippines	114,606,638	1.42%
14	Egypt	108,813,493	1.35%
15	Vietnam	100,511,819	1.24%
16	Democratic Republic of the Congo	97,685,698	1.21%
17	Turkey	88,615,502	1.10%
18	Iran	86,975,836	1.08%
19	Germany	83,824,319	1.04%
20	Thailand	70,579,666	0.87%

This list includes 20 most populous countries in the World. Approximately 5.64 billion people live in these twenty countries, or around 70% of the world’s population.

See also: Full List of countries and dependent territories of the World by population

World population 2023

The population of the world is projected to increase by 100,752,643 people in 2023 and reach 8,147,701,961 in the end of the year. The natural increase is expected to be positive, as the number of births will exceed the number of deaths by 100,254,836.

Population change rates in 2023

According to our estimations, daily change rates of world population in 2023 will be the following:

447,586 live births average per day (18,649.42 in an hour)
172,915 deaths average per day (7,204.80 in an hour)

The population of World will be increasing by 276,035 persons daily in 2023.

Demographics of the World 2022

As of 1 January 2023, the population of the world was estimated to be 8,046,949,318.
This is an increase of 1.24 % (98,830,797 people) compared to population of 7,948,118,521 the year before.
In 2022 the natural increase was positive, as the number of births exceeded the number of deaths by 98,415,064.

Below are the key figures for the world population in 2022:

160,747,971 live births
62,332,907 deaths
4,060,130,059 males as of 31 December 2022
3,986,819,259 females as of 31 December 2022
4,345,352,632 people live in urban areas (54 % of total world population)
3,701,596,686 people live in rural areas (46 % of total world population)

Growth Rate 1952 — 2023

World population density

The world population density is 59.1 people per square kilometer (153.1 per mi²) as of April 2023.
This number is calculated using 8,046,949,318 people as the world population and 136,120,354 km² (52,556,368 mi²)as Earth’s total area.
This is the sum of land and water areas within international boundaries and coastlines of all the countries in the world.

Since the Earth’s total area is about 510 million square kilometers, the world population density can be calculated in several ways:

15.8 people/km² (40.9/mi²) — the Earth’s total area (including land and water) is 510,072,000 km² (196,939,921 mi²).
53.5 people/km² (138.5/mi²) — the Earth’s land area.
This includes all continental and island land area as well as Antarctica. The area in that case is 150,461,685 km² (58,093,588 mi²).
59.1 people/km² (153.1/mi²) —
sum of land and water areas within international boundaries and coastlines of all the countries in the world. The area in that case is 136,120,354 km² (52,556,368 mi²).

Religion of the World

Religion	Number of followers	Percentage of total population
Christianity	2,549,761,536	31.7 %
Islam	2,013,192,037	25.0 %
Religiously Unaffiliated	1,221,465,803	15.2 %
Hinduism	1,198,451,609	14.9 %
Buddhism	529,055,084	6.6 %
Folk or traditional religions	451,759,687	5.6 %
Other	68,003,229	0.8 %
Judaism	15,260,333	0.2 %

Source: Pew Research Center. The Global Religious Landscape

Number of followers estimated by Countrymeters
( January 1 2023).

Global age structure

As of the beginning of 2023 according to our estimates the world had the following population age distribution:

	— percentage of population under 15
	— percentage of population between 15 and 64 years old
	— percentage of population 65+

In absolute figures (estimate):

2,084,569,466 young people under 15 years old (
1,077,744,528 males / 1,006,828,378 females)
5,081,333,771 persons between 15 and 64 years old (
2,569,398,787 males / 2,511,954,917 females)
590,141,646 persons above 64 years old (
261,787,349 males / 328,342,163 females)

We prepared a simplified model of the population distribution pyramid which is broken down into 3 main age groups.
The groups are the same as we used above: population under 15, between 15 and 64 and population which is over 65 year old.

65+

15-64

0-14

male

female

As we can see the World population pyramid has an expanding type. This type of pyramid is common for developing countries with declining fertility rate but still high birth and death rates.

World life expectancy

Life expectancy at birth is one of the most important demographic indicator.
It shows the number of years a newborn infant would live assuming that birth and death rates will remain at the same level during the whole lifetime.

According to Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations,
life expectancy at birth for the world as a whole increased from 65 years in 1990-1995 to 70 years in 2010-2015.
Although wide disparities persist such that the average length of life in Africa in 2010-2015, for example,
is 12 years shorter than the global average and 21 years shorter than in Northern America — see figure below.

Figure: Life expectancy at birth by major areas

Global literacy

According to our estimates 4,894,412,455 persons or 86.3% of adult population (aged 15 years and above) in the world
are able to read and write.
Accordingly about 777,070,761 adults are illiterate.

Literacy rate for adult male population is 89.96% (2,546,850,112 persons). 284,336,024 are illiterate.
Literacy rate for adult female population is 82.65% (2,347,562,343 persons). 492,734,737 are illiterate.

Youth literacy rates are 92.81% and 90.13% for males and females accordingly.
The overall youth literacy rate is 91.51%. Youth literacy rate definition covers the population between the ages of 15 to 24 years.

Source: The estimation data for section «World
population literacy» is based on the latest data published by UNESCO Institute for Statistics (retrieved March 13, 2016)

World historical population (1951 — 2023)

The data is given as of 1st of January of an year.

World population history

Year	Population	Growth Rate
1951	2,560,406,604	N/A %
1952	2,607,553,997	1.84 %
1953	2,654,405,334	1.80 %
1954	2,701,399,657	1.77 %
1955	2,749,108,690	1.77 %
1956	2,797,843,787	1.77 %
1957	2,848,060,613	1.79 %
1958	2,899,688,319	1.81 %
1959	2,952,829,301	1.83 %
1960	3,008,337,351	1.88 %
1961	3,064,572,222	1.87 %
1962	3,122,342,316	1.89 %
1963	3,181,956,882	1.91 %
1964	3,243,686,348	1.94 %
1965	3,308,102,778	1.99 %
1966	3,375,113,774	2.03 %
1967	3,444,745,982	2.06 %
1968	3,516,519,814	2.08 %
1969	3,590,108,316	2.09 %
1970	3,664,557,571	2.07 %
1971	3,739,627,183	2.05 %
1972	3,815,162,572	2.02 %
1973	3,891,308,177	2.00 %
1974	3,967,410,338	1.96 %
1975	4,043,288,795	1.91 %
1976	4,118,650,244	1.86 %
1977	4,193,794,699	1.82 %
1978	4,268,758,390	1.79 %
1979	4,344,292,968	1.77 %
1980	4,420,957,100	1.76 %
1981	4,499,346,118	1.77 %
1982	4,579,073,550	1.77 %
1983	4,660,399,347	1.78 %
1984	4,743,637,344	1.79 %
1985	4,829,473,423	1.81 %
1986	4,917,794,826	1.83 %
1987	5,008,635,951	1.85 %
1988	5,100,973,495	1.84 %
1989	5,193,588,212	1.82 %
1990	5,284,512,394	1.75 %
1991	5,372,958,607	1.67 %
1992	5,458,709,589	1.60 %
1993	5,542,505,600	1.54 %
1994	5,624,649,220	1.48 %
1995	5,705,987,737	1.45 %
1996	5,786,776,201	1.42 %
1997	5,867,328,462	1.39 %
1998	5,947,157,474	1.36 %
1999	6,026,548,295	1.33 %
2000	6,105,725,477	1.31 %
2001	6,185,028,231	1.30 %
2002	6,264,168,230	1.28 %
2003	6,343,448,736	1.27 %
2004	6,423,033,915	1.25 %
2005	6,503,507,778	1.25 %
2006	6,584,702,481	1.25 %
2007	6,666,737,393	1.25 %
2008	6,749,422,837	1.24 %
2009	6,832,961,603	1.24 %
2010	6,916,843,009	1.23 %
2011	7,001,071,861	1.22 %
2012	7,085,473,969	1.21 %
2013	7,170,293,122	1.20 %
2014	7,255,029,148	1.18 %
2015	7,339,619,737	1.17 %
2016	7,423,834,158	1.15 %
2017	7,507,990,494	1.13 %
2018	7,591,515,998	1.11 %
2019	7,674,314,922	1.09 %
2020	7,756,041,003	1.06 %
2021	7,851,163,856	1.23 %
2022	7,948,118,521	1.23 %
2023	8,046,949,318	1.24 %

The data is given as of 1st of January of an year.

Population projection (2020-2100)

Year	Population	Growth Rate
2020	7,797,322,395	-3.10 %
2025	8,187,482,626	5.00 %
2030	8,553,090,972	4.47 %
2035	8,894,594,868	3.99 %
2040	9,212,224,932	3.57 %
2045	9,506,070,389	3.19 %
2050	9,773,651,653	2.81 %
2055	10,012,946,343	2.45 %
2060	10,224,315,824	2.11 %
2065	10,411,449,013	1.83 %
2070	10,577,408,925	1.59 %
2075	10,723,432,838	1.38 %
2080	10,850,084,849	1.18 %
2085	10,958,838,946	1.00 %
2090	11,051,228,331	0.84 %
2095	11,127,099,242	0.69 %
2100	11,185,333,718	0.52 %

The data is given as of 1st of July of an year (medium fertility variant).

Source : United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Population Division

Источник

The global population explosion has stressed the carrying capacity of our planet Earth, triggered global warming and species extinction.

How Many People Live In The World?

The world’s population today is approximately 7.6 billion. Of the individuals currently living, the average age is approximately 30.1 years. Just over a quarter of the population is under 15 years old. Individuals between 15 and 64 years of age make up 65.9% of the population, and another 7.9% are 65 or older. The World Health Organization suggests that the global average life expectancy is 70.5 years, with men living to 68 and women to 73 years of age. The global fertility rate is around 2.52 children per woman.

History Of Population Growth

The human population began to increase significantly at the same time agriculture was discovered, around 10,000 BC. At this time in history, the world’s population was somewhere between 1 and 15 million. By the 4th century BC, between 50 million and 60 million people were alive in the Roman Empire alone. As the world’s population continued to grow, illnesses plagued and wiped out large quantities of people. For example, between the years 500 and 800 AD, the Justinian Plague killed roughly half of the European population. By the time of the 14th century, humans had recovered and numbered around 450 million worldwide. However, the Black Plague took approximately 100 million lives in the year 1400 AD. Two centuries had passed before the population recovered from its losses of the Black Plague.

The Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions between the 18th and 20th centuries promoted the next great period of population growth. During this time, hygiene practices improved, vaccines were created, and life expectancies grew. By 1804, the world population had reached 1 billion for the first time. Since then, the population of the world has grown exponentially, hitting the 2 billion mark in 1927, the 3 billion mark in 1960, the 4 billion mark in 1974, the 5 billion mark in 1987, 6 billion in 1999, and finally, the 7 billion mark in 2011.

The Most Populated Countries And Cities

The continent of Asia is home to 60% of the world’s population and hosts the top 2 most populated countries in the world, China and India. Together, these two countries hold 37% of the world’s population.

China has a population of over 1.38 billion. In China, there are 12.37 births for every 1,000 people in the population and only 7.16 deaths per 1,000. The life expectancy in the country is 75.35 years. Approximately 73.4% of the population is between 15 and 64 years of age. The fertility rate is 1.55 children per woman.

In India, the population numbers a little over 1.33 billion. This number represents 18% of the world’s population. The most populated city in this country is Mumbai with over 12.44 million individuals. Delhi is the second most populated and has a population of 11,034,555. In India, the birth rate is 19.3 for every 1,000 people while there are 7.3 deaths per 1,000. The life expectancy in this country is 68.89 years of age. Around 63.6% of the population is between 15 and 64 years of age. The fertility rate is 2.3 children per woman.

The third most populated country in the world is the United States. It has a total population of around 324,707,000. The most populated city in this country is New York City with 8.55 million people. In this country, there are 13.42 births for every 1,000 people and 8.15 deaths per 1,000. The life expectancy is around 79.56 years. Around 66.2% of the population is between 15 and 64 years old. The fertility rate is 1.84 children per woman.

The Fastest Growing Populations

The fastest growing populations in the world are located in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. This does not mean these geographic regions have the highest populations, just that they are growing more quickly than other regions around the world. Currently, the global growth percentage is around 1.14% which is down from 2.19% in the 1960’s.

According to UN estimates, however, the following countries are growing much faster than that. The top 5 countries with the fastest growing populations are Oman (8.45% growth), Lebanon (5.99%), Kuwait (4.81%), Qatar (4.72%), and South Sudan (4.09%).

Interestingly, the fast growing cities are not located in these countries. Instead, the majority of the world’s fastest growing urban populations are mainly found in China and India. These cities are Suzhou, China (5.57%); Guangzhou, China (4.66%); Surat, India (4.4%); Luanda, Angola (4.25%); and Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (4.17%).

Future Population Growth Projections

Several organizations have attempted to predict what the world’s future population will look like. The UN Population Division has estimated a population of 9 billion by 2050 and 10 billion by 2100. Many other researchers, however, believe that the population growth pattern might actually be reversed during that time. This is because, in the majority of countries around the world, the fertility rate is actually declining. In some places, it has reached two children per woman, and in other places, it is below that number. The replacement level is considered 2.1, the amount of children needed to sustain the current population size. As previously mentioned, the current global fertility rate is 2.52. If it reaches 2.1, the population will likely remain between 9 and 10 billion.

How Many People Can Earth Support?

All of these predictions about future population growth lead to one very important question: just how many people can the earth support? While the number of people on the earth continues to grow, the size of the planet and its resources do not. At some point, the population may become too much. Overpopulation of any species results in resource scarcity. Several estimates have suggested various carrying capacities for the earth (dependent on resource consumption), ranging from 7.7 billion to 10 billion. Beyond those numbers, and humans could face shortages in food, water, and energy.

How Many People Live In The World?

Rank	Continent	Population (millions)	Most populous country	Most populous city (metropolitan area)
1	Asia	4,436	China (1,382,300,000)	Greater Tokyo Area (35,676,000)
2	Africa	1,216	Nigeria (186,987,000)	Lagos (21,000,000)
3	Europe	738	Russia (143,439,000; approx. 110 million in Europe)	Moscow (19,468,664)
4	North America[note 2]	579	United States (324,118,000)	Mexico City/Metro Area (8,851,080/21,163,226)
5	South America	422	Brazil (209,567,000)	São Paulo City/Metro Area (11,316,149/27,640,577)
6	Oceania	39.9	Australia (24,309,000)	Sydney (4,840,600)
7	Antarctica	0.004 in summer (non-permanent, varies)	N/A	McMurdo Station (1,200) (non-permanent, varies)

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How Many People Live In The World?

Источник

World population growth from 10,000 BCE to 2021^[1]

High, medium, and low projections of the future human world population^[2]

In demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took over 200,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach one billion and only 219 years more to reach 8 billion.^[3]

The human population experienced continuous growth following the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the end of the Black Death in 1350, when it was nearly 370,000,000.^[4] The highest global population growth rates, with increases of over 1.8% per year, occurred between 1955 and 1975, peaking at 2.1% between 1965 and 1970.^[5] The growth rate declined to 1.1% between 2015 and 2020 and is projected to decline further in the 21st century.^[6] The global population is still increasing, but there is significant uncertainty about its long-term trajectory due to changing fertility and mortality rates.^[7] The UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs projects between 9 and 10 billion people by 2050 and gives an 80% confidence interval of 10–12 billion by the end of the 21st century,^[2] with a growth rate by then of zero. Other demographers predict that the human population will begin to decline in the second half of the 21st century.^[8]

The total number of births globally is currently (2015–2020) 140 million/year, which is projected to peak during the period 2040–2045 at 141 million/year and then decline slowly to 126 million/year by 2100.^[9] The total number of deaths is currently 57 million/year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million/year by 2100.^[10]

The median age of human beings as of 2020 is 31 years.^[11]

History

Visual comparison of the world population in past and present

Estimates of world population by their nature are an aspect of modernity, possible only since the Age of Discovery. Early estimates for the population of the world^[12] date to the 17th century: William Petty, in 1682, estimated the world population at 320 million (current estimates ranging close to twice this number); by the late 18th century, estimates ranged close to one billion (consistent with current estimates).^[13] More refined estimates, broken down by continents, were published in the first half of the 19th century, at 600 million to 1 billion in the early 1800s and 800 million to 1 billion in the 1840s.^[14]

It is difficult for estimates to be better than rough approximations, as even current population estimates are fraught with uncertainties from 3% to 5%.^[15]

Ancient and post-classical history

Estimates of the population of the world at the time agriculture emerged in around 10,000 BC have ranged between 1 million and 15 million.^[16]^[17] Even earlier, genetic evidence suggests humans may have gone through a population bottleneck of between 1,000 and 10,000 people about 70,000 BC, according to the now largely discredited Toba catastrophe theory. By contrast, it is estimated that around 50–60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire in the 4th century AD.^[18]

The Plague of Justinian caused Europe’s population to drop by around 50% between the 6th and 8th centuries AD.^[19] The population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340.^[20] From 1340 to 1400, the world’s population fell from an estimated 443 million to 350–375 million,^[21] with the Indian subcontinent suffering the most tremendous loss and Europe suffering the Black Death pandemic;^[22] it took 200 years for European population figures to recover.^[23] The population of China decreased from 123 million in 1200 to 65 million in 1393,^[24] presumably from a combination of Mongol invasions, famine, and plague.^[25]

Starting in AD 2, the Han dynasty of ancient China kept consistent family registers to properly assess the poll taxes and labor service duties of each household.^[26] In that year, the population of Western Han was recorded as 57,671,400 individuals in 12,366,470 households, decreasing to 47,566,772 individuals in 9,348,227 households by AD 146, towards the end of the Han dynasty.^[26] From 200 to 400, the world population fell from an estimated 257 million to 206 million, with China suffering the greatest loss.^[22] At the founding of the Ming dynasty in 1368, China’s population was reported to be close to 60 million; toward the end of the dynasty in 1644, it may have approached 150 million.^[27] England’s population reached an estimated 5.6 million in 1650, up from an estimated 2.6 million in 1500.^[28] New crops that were brought to Asia and Europe from the Americas by Portuguese and Spanish colonists in the 16th century are believed to have contributed to population growth.^[29]^[30]^[31] Since their introduction to Africa by Portuguese traders in the 16th century,^[32] maize and cassava have similarly replaced traditional African crops as the most important staple food crops grown on the continent.^[33]

The pre-Columbian population of the Americas is uncertain; historian David Henige called it «the most unanswerable question in the world.»^[34] By the end of the 20th century, scholarly consensus favored an estimate of roughly 55 million people, but numbers from various sources have ranged from 10 million to 100 million.^[35] Encounters between European explorers and populations in the rest of the world often introduced local epidemics of extraordinary virulence.^[36] According to the most extreme scholarly claims, as many as 90% of the Native American population of the New World died of Old World diseases such as smallpox, measles, and influenza.^[37] Over the centuries, the Europeans had developed high degrees of immunity to these diseases, while the indigenous peoples had no such immunity.^[38]

Modern history

Map showing urban areas with at least one million inhabitants in 2006. Only 3% of the world’s population lived in urban areas in 1800; this proportion had risen to 47% by 2000, and reached 50.5% by 2010.^[39] By 2050, the proportion may reach 70%.^[40]

During the European Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically.^[41] The percentage of the children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730–1749 to 31.8% in 1810–1829.^[42]^[43] Between 1700 and 1900, Europe’s population increased from about 100 million to over 400 million.^[44] Altogether, the areas populated by people of European descent comprised 36% of the world’s population in 1900.^[45]

Population growth in the Western world became more rapid after the introduction of vaccination and other improvements in medicine and sanitation.^[46] Improved material conditions led to the population of Britain increasing from 10 million to 40 million in the 19th century.^[47] The population of the United Kingdom reached 60 million in 2006.^[48] The United States saw its population grow from around 5.3 million in 1800 to 106 million in 1920, exceeding 307 million in 2010.^[49]

The first half of the 20th century in Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union was marked by a succession of major wars, famines and other disasters which caused large-scale population losses (approximately 60 million excess deaths).^[50]^[51] After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s population declined significantly – from 150 million in 1991 to 143 million in 2012^[52] – but by 2013 this decline appeared to have halted.^[53]

Many countries in the developing world have experienced extremely rapid population growth since the early 20th century, due to economic development and improvements in public health. China’s population rose from approximately 430 million in 1850 to 580 million in 1953,^[54] and now stands at over 1.3 billion. The population of the Indian subcontinent, which was about 125 million in 1750, increased to 389 million in 1941;^[55] today, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are collectively home to about 1.63 billion people.^[56] Java, an island in Indonesia, had about 5 million inhabitants in 1815; it had a population of over 139 million in 2020.^[57] In just one hundred years, the population of Brazil decupled (x10), from about 17 million in 1900, or about 1% of the world population in that year, to about 176 million in 2000, or almost 3% of the global population in the very early 21st century. Mexico’s population grew from 13.6 million in 1900 to about 112 million in 2010.^[58]^[59] Between the 1920s and 2000s, Kenya’s population grew from 2.9 million to 37 million.^[60]

Milestones by the billions

World population milestones in billions^[61] (Worldometers estimates)

Population	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Year	1804	1930	1960	1974	1987	1999	2011	2022	2037	2057
Years elapsed	200,000+	126	30	14	13	12	12	11	15	20

The UN estimated that the world population reached one billion for the first time in 1804. It was another 123 years before it reached two billion in 1927, but it took only 33 years to reach three billion in 1960.^[62] Thereafter, it took 14 years for the global population to reach four billion in 1974, 13 years to reach five billion in 1987, 12 years to reach six billion in 1999 and, according to the United States Census Bureau, 13 years to reach seven billion in March 2012.^[63] The United Nations, however, estimated that the world population reached seven billion in October 2011.^[64]^[65]^[66]

According to the UN, the global population reached eight billion in November 2022,^[67] but because the growth rate is slowing, it will take another 15 years to reach around 9 billion by 2037 and 20 years to reach 10 billion by 2057.^[68] Alternative scenarios for 2050 range from a low of 7.4 billion to a high of more than 10.6 billion.^[69] Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and the variables used in projection calculations, especially the fertility and mortality variables. Long-range predictions to 2150 range from a population decline to 3.2 billion in the «low scenario», to «high scenarios» of 24.8 billion.^[69] One extreme scenario predicted a massive increase to 256 billion by 2150, assuming the global fertility rate remained at its 1995 level of 3.04 children per woman; however, by 2010 the global fertility rate had declined to 2.52.^[70]^[71]

There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world’s population surpassed one or two billion. The points at which it reached three and four billion were not officially noted, but the International Database of the United States Census Bureau placed them in July 1959 and April 1974 respectively. The United Nations did determine, and commemorate, the «Day of 5 Billion» on 11 July 1987, and the «Day of 6 Billion» on 12 October 1999. The Population Division of the United Nations declared the «Day of Seven Billion» to be 31 October 2011.^[72] The United Nations marked the birth of the eight billionth person on 15 November 2022.^[73]^[67]

Global demographics

>80
77.5–80
75–77.5
72.5–75
70–72.5
67.5–70
65–67.5
60–65
55–60
50–55

2015 map showing average life expectancy by country in years. In 2015, the World Health Organization estimated the average global life expectancy as 71.4 years.^[74]

As of 2012, the global sex ratio is approximately 1.01 males to 1 female.^[75] Approximately 26.3% of the global population is aged under 15, while 65.9% is aged 15–64 and 7.9% is aged 65 or over.^[75] The median age of the world’s population is estimated to be 31 years in 2020,^[11] and is expected to rise to 37.9 years by 2050.^[76]

According to the World Health Organization, the global average life expectancy is 73.3 years as of 2020, with women living an average of 75.9 years and men approximately 70.8 years.^[77] In 2010, the global fertility rate was estimated at 2.44 children per woman.^[78] In June 2012, British researchers calculated the total weight of Earth’s human population as approximately 287 million tonnes (630 billion pounds), with the average person weighing around 62 kilograms (137 lb).^[79]

The IMF estimated nominal 2021 gross world product at US$94.94 trillion, giving an annual global per capita figure of around US$12,290.^[80] Around 9.3% of the world population live in extreme poverty, subsisting on less than US$1.9 per day;^[81] around 8.9% are malnourished.^[82] 87% of the world’s over-15s are considered literate.^[83] As of April 2022, there were about 5 billion global Internet users, constituting 63% of the world population.^[84]

The Han Chinese are the world’s largest single ethnic group, constituting over 19% of the global population in 2011.^[85] The world’s most-spoken languages are English (1.132B), Mandarin Chinese (1.117B), Hindi (615M), Spanish (534M) and French (280M). More than three billion people speak an Indo-European language, which is the largest language family by number of speakers. Standard Arabic is a language with no native speakers, but the total number of speakers is estimated at 274 million people.^[86]

The largest religious categories in the world as of 2020 are estimated as follows: Christianity (31%), Islam (25%), Unaffiliated (16%) and Hinduism (15%).^[87]

Population by region

Six of the Earth’s seven continents are permanently inhabited on a large scale.
Asia is the most populous continent, with its 4.64 billion inhabitants accounting for 60% of the world population. The world’s two most populated countries, China and India, together constitute about 36% of the world’s population.
Africa is the second most populated continent, with around 1.34 billion people, or 17% of the world’s population.
Europe’s 747 million people make up 10% of the world’s population as of 2020,
while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to around 653 million (8%). Northern America, primarily consisting of the United States and Canada, has a population of around 368 million (5%),
and Oceania, the least populated region, has about 42 million inhabitants (0.5%).^[88] Antarctica only has a very small, fluctuating population of about 1200 people based mainly in polar science stations.^[89]

Population by region (2020 estimates)

Region	Density (inhabitants/km²)	Population (millions)	Most populous country	Most populous city (metropolitan area)
Asia	104.1	4,641	1,411,778,000 – China^{[note 1]}	13,515,000 – Tokyo Metropolis (37,400,000 – Greater Tokyo Area)
Africa	44.4	1,340	0,211,401,000 – Nigeria	09,500,000 – Cairo (20,076,000 – Greater Cairo)
Europe	73.4	747	0,146,171,000 – Russia, approx. 110 million in Europe	13,200,000 – Moscow (20,004,000 – Moscow metropolitan area)
Latin America	24.1	653	0,214,103,000 – Brazil	12,252,000 – São Paulo City (21,650,000 – São Paulo Metro Area)
Northern America^{[note 2]}	14.9	368	0,332,909,000 – United States	08,804,000 – New York City (23,582,649 – New York metropolitan area^[90])
Oceania	5	42	0,025,917,000 – Australia	05,367,000 – Sydney
Antarctica	~0	0.004^[89]	N/A^{[note 3]}	00,001,258 – McMurdo Station

Largest populations by country

Cartogram showing the distribution of the world population, each square represents half a million people.

A map of world population in 2019

1901 to 2021 population graph of the five countries with the highest current populations

10 most populous countries

Rank	Country / Dependency	Population	Percentage of the world	Date	Source (official or from the United Nations)
1	China	1,412,600,000	17.6%	31 Dec 2021	National annual estimate^[91]
2	India	1,373,761,000	17.1%	1 Mar 2022	Annual national estimate^[92]
3	United States	333,887,244	4.16%	12 Apr 2023	National population clock^[93]
4	Indonesia	275,773,800	3.44%	1 Jul 2022	National annual estimate^[94]
5	Pakistan	229,488,994	2.86%	1 Jul 2022	UN projection^[95]
6	Nigeria	216,746,934	2.70%	1 Jul 2022	UN projection^[95]
7	Brazil	216,007,989	2.69%	12 Apr 2023	National population clock^[96]
8	Bangladesh	168,220,000	2.10%	1 Jul 2020	Annual Population Estimate^[97]
9	Russia	147,190,000	1.83%	1 Oct 2021	2021 preliminary census results^[98]
10	Mexico	128,271,248	1.60%	31 Mar 2022	National quarterly estimate^[99]

Approximately 4.5 billion people live in these ten countries, representing around 56% of the world’s population as of July 2022.

The UN estimates that by 2030 India will have overtaken China in having the largest population.

World population (millions, UN estimates)^[100]

#	Most populous countries	2000	2015	2030^[A]
1	China^[B]	1,270	1,376	1,416
2	India	1,053	1,311	1,528
3	United States	283	322	356
4	Indonesia	212	258	295
5	Pakistan	136	208	245
6	Brazil	176	206	228
7	Nigeria	123	182	263
8	Bangladesh	131	161	186
9	Russia	146	146	149
10	Mexico	103	127	148
	World total	6,127	7,349	8,501
Notes: ^ 2030 = Medium variant. ^ China excludes Hong Kong and Macau.

Most densely populated countries

The tables below list the world’s most densely populated countries, both in absolute terms and in comparison to their total populations, as of November 2022. All areas and populations are from The World Factbook, unless otherwise noted.

Population density (people per km²) map of the world in 2020. Red areas denote regions of highest population density

10 most densely populated countries (with population above 5 million)^[101]

Rank	Country	Population	Area (km²)	Density (pop/km²)
1	Singapore	5,921,231	719	8,235
2	Bangladesh	165,650,475	148,460	1,116
3	Palestine^[102]	5,223,000	6,025	867
4	Taiwan	23,580,712	35,980	655
5	South Korea	51,844,834	99,720	520
6	Lebanon	5,296,814	10,400	509
7	Rwanda	13,173,730	26,338	500
8	Burundi	12,696,478	27,830	456
9	India	1,389,637,446	3,287,263	423
10	Netherlands	17,400,824	41,543	419

Countries ranking highly in both total population (more than 20 million people) and population density (more than 250 people per square kilometer)^[101]

Rank	Country	Population	Area (km²)	Density (pop/km²)	Population trend^{[citation needed]}
1	India	1,389,637,446	3,287,263	423	Growing
2	Pakistan	242,923,845	796,095	305	Rapidly growing
3	Bangladesh	165,650,475	148,460	1,116	Growing
4	Japan	124,214,766	377,915	329	Declining^[103]
5	Philippines	114,597,229	300,000	382	Growing
6	Vietnam	103,808,319	331,210	313	Growing
7	United Kingdom	67,791,400	243,610	278	Growing
8	South Korea	51,844,834	99,720	520	Steady
9	Taiwan	23,580,712	35,980	655	Steady
10	Sri Lanka	23,187,516	65,610	353	Growing

Fluctuation

Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.

Population size fluctuates at differing rates in differing regions. Nonetheless, population growth has been the long-standing trend on all inhabited continents, as well as in most individual states. During the 20th century, the global population saw its greatest increase in known history, rising from about 1.6 billion in 1900 to over 6 billion in 2000^[104] as the whole world entered the early phases of what has come to be called the «demographic transition». Some of the key factors contributing to this increase included the lessening of the mortality rate in many countries by improved sanitation and medical advances, and a massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution.^[105]^[106] By 2000, there were approximately ten times as many people on Earth as there had been in 1700.

However, this rapid growth did not last. During the period 2000–2005, the United Nations estimates that the world’s population was growing at an annual rate of 1.3% (equivalent to around 80 million people), down from a peak of 2.1% during the period 1965–1970.^[6] Globally, although the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak in 1968,^[107] growth still remains high in Sub-Saharan Africa.^[108]

In fact, during the 2010s, Japan and some countries in Europe began to reduce in population, due to sub-replacement fertility rates.^[103]

In 2019, the United Nations reported that the rate of population growth continues to decline due to the ongoing global demographic transition. If this trend continues, the rate of growth may diminish to zero by 2100, concurrent with a world population plateau of 10.9 billion.^[6]^[68] However, this is only one of many estimates published by the UN; in 2009, UN population projections for 2050 ranged between around 8 billion and 10.5 billion.^[109] An alternative scenario is given by the statistician Jorgen Randers, who argues that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers’ «most likely scenario» reveals a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline.^[110] Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, states that «there’s a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world’s agenda, remains a very important issue.»^[111]

Estimated world population figures, 10,000 BC–AD 2000
Estimated world population figures, 10,000 BC–AD 2000 (in log y scale)
World population figures, 1950–2017

Annual population growth

Global annual population growth^[112]

Year	Population	Yearly growth	Density (pop/km²)	Urban population
%	Number	Number	%
1951	2,584,034,261	1.88%	47,603,112	17	775,067,697	30%
1952	2,630,861,562	1.81%	46,827,301	18	799,282,533	30%
1953	2,677,608,960	1.78%	46,747,398	18	824,289,989	31%
1954	2,724,846,741	1.76%	47,237,781	18	850,179,106	31%
1955	2,773,019,936	1.77%	48,173,195	19	877,008,842	32%
1956	2,822,443,282	1.78%	49,423,346	19	904,685,164	32%
1957	2,873,306,090	1.80%	50,862,808	19	933,113,168	32%
1958	2,925,686,705	1.82%	52,380,615	20	962,537,113	33%
1959	2,979,576,185	1.84%	53,889,480	20	992,820,546	33%
1960	3,034,949,748	1.86%	55,373,563	20	1,023,845,517	34%
1961	3,091,843,507	1.87%	56,893,759	21	1,055,435,648	34%
1962	3,150,420,795	1.89%	58,577,288	21	1,088,376,703	35%
1963	3,211,001,009	1.92%	60,580,214	22	1,122,561,940	35%
1964	3,273,978,338	1.96%	62,977,329	22	1,157,813,355	35%
1965	3,339,583,597	2.00%	65,605,259	22	1,188,469,224	36%
1966	3,407,922,630	2.05%	68,339,033	23	1,219,993,032	36%
1967	3,478,769,962	2.08%	70,847,332	23	1,252,566,565	36%
1968	3,551,599,127	2.09%	72,829,165	24	1,285,933,432	36%
1969	3,625,680,627	2.09%	74,081,500	24	1,319,833,474	36%
1970	3,700,437,046	2.06%	74,756,419	25	1,354,215,496	37%
1971	3,775,759,617	2.04%	75,322,571	25	1,388,834,099	37%
1972	3,851,650,245	2.01%	75,890,628	26	1,424,734,781	37%
1973	3,927,780,238	1.98%	76,129,993	26	1,462,178,370	37%
1974	4,003,794,172	1.94%	76,013,934	27	1,501,134,655	37%
1975	4,079,480,606	1.89%	75,686,434	27	1,538,624,994	38%
1976	4,154,666,864	1.84%	75,186,258	28	1,577,376,141	38%
1977	4,229,506,060	1.80%	74,839,196	28	1,616,419,308	38%
1978	4,304,533,501	1.77%	75,027,441	29	1,659,306,117	39%
1979	4,380,506,100	1.76%	75,972,599	29	1,706,021,638	39%
1980	4,458,003,514	1.77%	77,497,414	30	1,754,201,029	39%
1981	4,536,996,762	1.77%	78,993,248	30	1,804,215,203	40%
1982	4,617,386,542	1.77%	80,389,780	31	1,854,134,229	40%
1983	4,699,569,304	1.78%	82,182,762	32	1,903,822,436	41%
1984	4,784,011,621	1.80%	84,442,317	32	1,955,106,433	41%
1985	4,870,921,740	1.82%	86,910,119	33	2,007,939,063	41%
1986	4,960,567,912	1.84%	89,646,172	33	2,062,604,394	42%
1987	5,052,522,147	1.85%	91,954,235	34	2,118,882,551	42%
1988	5,145,426,008	1.84%	92,903,861	35	2,176,126,537	42%
1989	5,237,441,558	1.79%	92,015,550	35	2,233,140,502	43%
1990	5,327,231,061	1.71%	89,789,503	36	2,290,228,096	43%
1991	5,414,289,444	1.63%	87,058,383	36	2,347,462,336	43%
1992	5,498,919,809	1.56%	84,630,365	37	2,404,337,297	44%
1993	5,581,597,546	1.50%	82,677,737	37	2,461,223,528	44%
1994	5,663,150,427	1.46%	81,552,881	38	2,518,254,111	44%
1995	5,744,212,979	1.43%	81,062,552	39	2,575,505,235	45%
1996	5,824,891,951	1.40%	80,678,972	39	2,632,941,583	45%
1997	5,905,045,788	1.38%	80,153,837	40	2,690,813,541	46%
1998	5,984,793,942	1.35%	79,748,154	40	2,749,213,598	46%
1999	6,064,239,055	1.33%	79,445,113	41	2,808,231,655	46%
2000	6,143,494,000	1.31%	79,255,000	41	2,868,308,000	46%
2001	6,222,627,000	1.29%	79,133,000	42	2,933,079,000	47%
2002	6,301,773,000	1.27%	79,147,000	42	3,001,808,000	47%
2003	6,381,185,000	1.26%	79,412,000	43	3,071,744,000	48%
2004	6,461,159,000	1.25%	79,974,000	43	3,143,045,000	48%
2005	6,541,907,000	1.25%	80,748,000	44	3,215,906,000	49%
2006	6,623,518,000	1.25%	81,611,000	44	3,289,446,000	50%
2007	6,705,947,000	1.24%	82,429,000	45	3,363,610,000	50%
2008	6,789,089,000	1.24%	83,142,000	46	3,439,719,000	50%
2009	6,872,767,000	1.23%	83,678,000	47	3,516,830,000	51%
2010	6,956,824,000	1.22%	84,057,000	47	3,594,868,000	51%
2011	7,041,194,000	1.21%	84,371,000	47	3,671,424,000	52%
2012	7,125,828,000	1.20%	84,634,000	48	3,747,843,000	52%
2013	7,210,582,000	1.19%	84,754,000	48	3,824,990,000	53%
2014	7,295,291,000	1.17%	84,709,000	49	3,902,832,000	53%
2015	7,379,797,000	1.16%	84,506,000	50	3,981,498,000	54%
2016	7,464,022,000	1.14%	84,225,000	50	4,060,653,000	54%
2017	7,547,859,000	1.12%	83,837,000	51	4,140,189,000	55%
2018	7,631,091,000	1.10%	83,232,000	51	4,219,817,000	55%
2019	7,713,468,000	1.08%	82,377,000	52	4,299,439,000	56%
2020	7,795,000,000	1.05%	81,331,000	52	4,378,900,000	56%

Population growth by region

The table below shows historical and predicted regional population figures in millions.^[113]^[114]^[115] The availability of historical population figures varies by region.

World historical and predicted populations (in millions)^[116]^[117]^[118]

Region	1500	1600	1700	1750	1800	1850	1900	1950	1999	2008	2010	2012	2050	2150
World	585	660	710	791	978	1,262	1,650	2,521	6,008	6,707	6,896	7,052	9,725	9,746
Africa	86	114	106	106	107	111	133	221	783	973	1,022	1,052	2,478	2,308
Asia	282	350	411	502	635	809	947	1,402	3,700	4,054	4,164	4,250	5,267	5,561
Europe	168	170	178	190	203	276	408	547	675	732	738	740	734	517
Latin America^{[Note 1]}	40	20	10	16	24	38	74	167	508	577	590	603	784	912
Northern America^{[Note 1]}	6	3	2	2	7	26	82	172	312	337	345	351	433	398
Oceania	3	3	3	2	2	2	6	13	30	34	37	38	57	51

World historical and predicted populations by percentage distribution^[116]^[117]

Region	1500	1600	1700	1750	1800	1850	1900	1950	1999	2008	2010	2012	2050	2150
Africa	14.7	17.3	14.9	13.4	10.9	8.8	8.1	8.8	13.0	14.5	14.8	15.2	25.5	23.7
Asia	48.2	53.0	57.9	63.5	64.9	64.1	57.4	55.6	61.6	60.4	60.4	60.3	54.2	57.1
Europe	28.7	25.8	25.1	20.6	20.8	21.9	24.7	21.7	11.2	10.9	10.7	10.5	7.6	5.3
Latin America^{[Note 1]}	6.8	3.0	1.4	2.0	2.5	3.0	4.5	6.6	8.5	8.6	8.6	8.6	8.1	9.4
Northern America^{[Note 1]}	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.7	2.1	5.0	6.8	5.2	5.0	5.0	5.0	4.5	4.1
Oceania	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.5

Past population

The following table gives estimates, in millions, of population in the past. The data for 1750 to 1900 are from the UN report «The World at Six Billion»^[119] whereas the data from 1950 to 2015 are from a UN data sheet.^[100]

Year	World	Africa	Asia	Europe	Latin America & Carib.^{[Note 1]}	North America ^{[Note 1]}	Oceania	Notes
70,000 BC	< 0.015				0	0		^[120]
10,000 BC	4							^[121]
8000 BC	5
6500 BC	5
5000 BC	5
4000 BC	7
3000 BC	14
2000 BC	27
1000 BC	50	7	33	9				^{[citation needed]}
500 BC	100	14	66	16
AD 1	200	23	141	28
1000	400	70	269	50	8	1	2
1500	458	86	243	84	39	3	3
1600	580	114	339	111	10	3	3
1700	682	106	436	125	10	2	3
1750	791	106	502	163	16	2	2
1800	1,000	107	656	203	24	7	3
1850	1,262	111	809	276	38	26	2
1900	1,650	133	947	408	74	82	6
1950	2,525	229	1,394	549	169	172	12.7	^[122]
1955	2,758	254	1,534	577	193	187	14.2
1960	3,018	285	1,687	606	221	204	15.8
1965	3,322	322	1,875	635	254	219	17.5
1970	3,682	366	2,120	657	288	231	19.7
1975	4,061	416	2,378	677	326	242	21.5
1980	4,440	478	2,626	694	365	254	23.0
1985	4,853	550	2,897	708	406	267	24.9
1990	5,310	632	3,202	721	447	281	27.0
1995	5,735	720	3,475	728	487	296	29.1
2000	6,127	814	3,714	726	527	314	31.1
2005	6,520	920	3,945	729	564	329	33.4
2010	6,930	1,044	4,170	735	600	344	36.4
2015	7,349	1,186	4,393	738	634	358	39.3

Using the above figures, the change in population from 2010 to 2015 was:

World: +420 million
Africa: +142 million
Asia: +223 million
Europe: +3 million
Latin America and Caribbean: +35 million
Northern America: +14 million
Oceania: +2.9 million

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f North America is here defined to include the northernmost countries and territories of North America: Canada, the United States, Greenland, Bermuda, and Saint Pierre and Miquelon. Latin America & Carib. comprises Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and South America.

Projections

Long-term global population growth is difficult to predict. The United Nations and the US Census Bureau both give different estimates – according to the UN, the world population reached seven billion in late 2011,^[113] while the USCB asserted that this occurred in March 2012.^[123] Since 1951 the UN has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. From 2000 to 2005, the UN consistently revised these projections downward, until the 2006 revision, issued on 14 March 2007, revised the 2050 mid-range estimate upwards by 273 million.^{[citation needed]}

Complicating the UN’s and others’ attempts to project future populations is the fact that average global birth rates, as well as mortality rates, are declining rapidly, as the nations of the world progress through the stages of the demographic transition, but both vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates and mortality rates are often low) and developing countries (where birth and mortality rates typically remain high). Different ethnicities also display varying birth rates.^{[citation needed]} Both of these can change rapidly due to disease epidemics, wars and other mass catastrophes, or advances in medicine and public health.

The UN’s first report in 1951 showed that during the period 1950–55 the crude birth rate was 36.9/1,000 population and the crude death rate was 19.1/1,000. By the period 2015–20 both numbers had dropped significantly to 18.5/1,000 for the crude birth rate and 7.5/1,000 for the crude death rate. UN projections for 2100 show a further decline in the crude birth rate to 11.6/1,000 and an increase in the crude death rate to 11.2/1,000.^[124]^,^[125]

The total number of births globally is currently (2015–20) 140 million/year, is projected to peak during the period 2040–45 at 141 million/year and thereafter decline slowly to 126 million/year by 2100.^[9] The total number of deaths is currently 57 million/year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million/year by 2100.^[10]

2012 United Nations projections show a continued increase in population in the near future with a steady decline in population growth rate; the global population is expected to reach between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050.^[126]^[127] 2003 UN Population Division population projections for the year 2150 range between 3.2 and 24.8 billion.^[70] One of many independent mathematical models supports the lower estimate,^[128] while a 2014 estimate forecasts between 9.3 and 12.6 billion in 2100, and continued growth thereafter.^[129]^[130] The 2019 Revision of the UN estimates gives the «medium variant» population as; nearly 8.6 billion in 2030, about 9.7 billion in 2050 and about 10.9 billion in 2100.^[131] In December 2019, the German Foundation for World Population projected that the global population will reach 8 billion by 2023 as it increases by 156 every minute.^[132] In a modeled future projection by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion people and decline to 8.79 billion in 2100.^[133] Some analysts have questioned the sustainability of further world population growth, highlighting the growing pressures on the environment,^[134]^[135] global food supplies, and energy resources.^[136]^[137]^[138]

UN (medium variant – 2019 revision) and US Census Bureau (June 2015) estimates^[139]^[140]

Year	UN est. (millions)	Difference	USCB est. (millions)	Difference
2005	6,542	–	6,473	–
2010	6,957	415	6,866	393
2015	7,380	423	7,256	390
2020	7,795	415	7,643	380
2025	8,184	390	8,007	363
2030	8,549	364	8,341	334
2035	8,888	339	8,646	306
2040	9,199	311	8,926	280
2045	9,482	283	9,180	254
2050	9,735	253	9,408	228

UN 2019 estimates and medium variant projections (in millions)^[139]

Year	World	Asia	Africa	Europe	Latin America/Caribbean	Northern America	Oceania
2000	6,144	3,741 (60.9%)	811 (13.2%)	726 (11.8%)	522 (8.5%)	312 (5.1%)	31 (0.5%)
2005	6,542	3,978 (60.8%)	916 (14.0%)	729 (11.2%)	558 (8.5%)	327 (5.0%)	34 (0.5%)
2010	6,957	4,210 (60.5%)	1,039 (14.9%)	736 (10.6%)	591 (8.5%)	343 (4.9%)	37 (0.5%)
2015	7,380	4,434 (60.1%)	1,182 (16.0%)	743 (10.1%)	624 (8.5%)	357 (4.8%)	40 (0.5%)
2020	7,795	4,641 (59.5%)	1,341 (17.2%)	748 (9.6%)	654 (8.4%)	369 (4.7%)	43 (0.6%)
2025	8,184	4,823 (58.9%)	1,509 (18.4%)	746 (9.1%)	682 (8.3%)	380 (4.6%)	45 (0.6%)
2030	8,549	4,974 (58.2%)	1,688 (19.8%)	741 (8.7%)	706 (8.3%)	391 (4.6%)	48 (0.6%)
2035	8,888	5,096 (57.3%)	1,878 (21.1%)	735 (8.3%)	726 (8.2%)	401 (4.5%)	50 (0.6%)
2040	9,199	5,189 (56.4%)	2,077 (22.6%)	728 (7.9%)	742 (8.1%)	410 (4.5%)	53 (0.6%)
2045	9,482	5,253 (55.4%)	2,282 (24.1%)	720 (7.6%)	754 (8.0%)	418 (4.4%)	55 (0.6%)
2050	9,735	5,290 (54.3%)	2,489 (25.6%)	711 (7.3%)	762 (7.8%)	425 (4.4%)	57 (0.6%)
2055	9,958	5,302 (53.2%)	2,698 (27.1%)	700 (7.0%)	767 (7.7%)	432 (4.3%)	60 (0.6%)
2060	10,152	5,289 (52.1%)	2,905 (28.6%)	689 (6.8%)	768 (7.6%)	439 (4.3%)	62 (0.6%)
2065	10,318	5,256 (51.0%)	3,109 (30.1%)	677 (6.6%)	765 (7.4%)	447 (4.3%)	64 (0.6%)
2070	10,459	5,207 (49.8%)	3,308 (31.6%)	667 (6.4%)	759 (7.3%)	454 (4.3%)	66 (0.6%)
2075	10,577	5,143 (48.6%)	3,499 (33.1%)	657 (6.2%)	750 (7.1%)	461 (4.4%)	67 (0.6%)
2080	10,674	5,068 (47.5%)	3,681 (34.5%)	650 (6.1%)	739 (6.9%)	468 (4.4%)	69 (0.7%)
2085	10,750	4,987 (46.4%)	3,851 (35.8%)	643 (6.0%)	726 (6.8%)	474 (4.4%)	71 (0.7%)
2090	10,810	4,901 (45.3%)	4,008 (37.1%)	638 (5.9%)	711 (6.6%)	479 (4.4%)	72 (0.7%)
2095	10,852	4,812 (44.3%)	4,152 (38.3%)	634 (5.8%)	696 (6.4%)	485 (4.5%)	74 (0.7%)
2100	10,875	4,719 (43.4%)	4,280 (39.4%)	630 (5.8%)	680 (6.3%)	491 (4.5%)	75 (0.7%)

Mathematical approximations

In 1975, Sebastian von Hoerner proposed a formula for population growth which represented hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025.^[141] The hyperbolic growth of the world population observed until the 1970s was later correlated to a non-linear second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This feedback can be described as follows: technological advance → increase in the carrying capacity of land for people → demographic growth → more people → more potential inventors → acceleration of technological advance → accelerating growth of the carrying capacity → faster population growth → accelerating growth of the number of potential inventors → faster technological advance → hence, the faster growth of the Earth’s carrying capacity for people, and so on.^[142] The transition from hyperbolic growth to slower rates of growth is related to the demographic transition.

According to the Russian demographer Sergey Kapitsa,^[143] the world population grew between 67,000 BC and 1965 according to the following formula:

${displaystyle N={frac {C}{tau }}operatorname {arccot} {frac {T_{0}-T}{tau }},}$

where

N is current population,

T is the current year,

C = (1.86 ± 0.01)·10¹¹,

T₀ = 2007 ± 1,

= 42 ± 1.

Years for world population to double

According to linear interpolation and extrapolation of UNDESA population estimates, the world population has doubled, or will double, in the years listed in the tables below (with two different starting points). During the 2nd millennium, each doubling took roughly half as long as the previous doubling, fitting the hyperbolic growth model mentioned above. However, after 2024, it is unlikely that there will be another doubling of the global population in the 21st century.^[144]

Historic chart showing the periods of time the world population has taken to double, from 1700 to 2000

Starting at 500 million

Population (in billions)	0.5	1	2	4	8	16
Year	1500	1804	1927	1974	2022	n/a
Years elapsed	—	304	123	47	48	—

Starting at 375 million

Population (in billions)	0.375	0.75	1.5	3	6	12
Year	1171	1715	1881	1960	1999	c. 2100^[145]
Years elapsed	—	544	166	79	39	c. 100+

Number of humans who have ever lived

The total number of humans who have ever lived is estimated to be approximately 100 billion. Such estimates can only be rough approximations, as even modern population estimates are subject to uncertainty of around 3% to 5%.^[15] Kapitsa (1996) cites estimates ranging between 80 and 150 billion.^[146] The PRB puts the figure at 117 billion as of 2020, estimating that the current world population is 6.7% of all the humans who have ever lived.^[147] Haub (1995) prepared another figure, updated in 2002 and 2011; the 2011 figure was approximately 107 billion.^[148]^[149]^[150] Haub characterized this figure as an estimate that required «selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period».^[149]

Robust population data only exist for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as in Ancient Egypt and the Persian Empire, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service.^[151] Thus, there is a significant margin of error when estimating ancient global populations.

Pre-modern infant mortality rates are another critical factor for such an estimate; these rates are very difficult to estimate for ancient times due to a lack of accurate records. Haub (1995) estimates that around 40% of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond their first birthday. Haub also stated that «life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about ten years for most of human history»,^[149] which is not to be mistaken for the life expectancy after reaching adulthood. The latter equally depended on period, location and social standing, but calculations identify averages from roughly 30 years upward.

Explanatory notes

^ Excluding its Special Administrative Regions (SARs) of Hong Kong and Macau.
^ Excludes Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, which are included here under Latin America.
^ The Antarctic Treaty System limits the nature of national claims in Antarctica. Of the territorial claims in Antarctica, the Ross Dependency has the largest population.

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^ Curtin, Ciara (1 March 2007). «Fact or Fiction?: Living People Outnumber the Dead». Scientific American. Scientific American, Inc. (published September 2007). 297 (3): 126. Bibcode:2007SciAm.297c.126C. doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0907-126. PMID 17784634. Retrieved 4 August 2008. Note: text of paper publication slightly different from text of on-line publication.
^ ^a ^b ^c Haub, Carl (November–December 2002). «How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?» (PDF). Population Today. Population Reference Bureau. 30 (8): 3–4. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 August 2011. Retrieved 4 August 2008.
^ Haub, Carl (October 2011). «How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?». Population Reference Bureau. Archived from the original on 24 April 2013. Retrieved 29 April 2013.
^ Kuhrt, A. (1995). The Ancient Near East, c. 3000–330 BCE. Vol. 2. London: Routledge. p. 695.

Sources

This article incorporates public domain material from World Factbook. CIA.

External links

Organizations

The Day of 6 Billion and 7 Billion – Official homepages maintained by UNFPA
Population Reference Bureau – News and issues related to population
Berlin Institute for Population and Development

Statistics and maps

HiveGroup.com – World population statistics presented in a treemap interface
Win.tue.nl – World countries mapped by population size

Population clocks

U.S. and World Population Clock (US Census Bureau)
World Population Clock – Worldometer

Источник

How many people are alive on earth today? Figuring out the current human population is a popular question to ask. The current US Census Bureau world population estimate in 2016 shows that there are approximately 7,346,235,000 people on earth as of August 23, 2016, which far exceeds the population of 7.2 billion from 2015.

As well as containing the latest world population estimate, this article contains information about the history of population growth, and details of the world’s largest countries and cities.

7 billion people in the world?

Although the number given above seems very precise, it is important to remember that it is just an estimate. It simply isn’t possible to be sure exactly how many people there are on the earth at any one time, and there are conflicting estimates of the global population in 2016.

The United States Census Bureau estimates there is one birth every 7 seconds and one death every 13 seconds, with a net gain of one person on earth every 11 seconds.

Map of the world if each country was the same relative size as its population:

Some, including the UN, believe that a population of 7 billion was reached in October 2011. Others, including the US Census Bureau and World Bank, believe that the total population of the world reached 7 billion in 2012, around March or April.

History of World Population Growth

Throughout most of history, the world’s population has been much smaller than it is now. Before the invention of agriculture, for example, the human population was estimated to be around 15 million people at most.

Here’s an interesting perspective on today’s world population in 2016: today’s world population (~7 billion) is approximately 6% of the estimated 110 billion who have ever lived.

The introduction of agriculture and the gradual movement of humanity into settled communities saw the global population increase gradually to around 300 million by AD 0. To give you an idea of scale, the Roman Empire, which many regard as one of the strongest empires the world has ever seen, probably contained only around 50 million people at its height; that’s less than the number of people in England today.

It wasn’t until the early 19th century that the world population reached its first big milestone: 1 billion people. Then, as the industrial revolution took hold and living standards improved, the rate of population growth increased considerably. Over the next hundred years, the population of the world doubled, reaching 2 billion in the late 1920s.

The 20th century, however, is where population growth really took off, and over the past 100 years, the planet’s population has more than tripled in size. This massive increase in human population is largely due to improvements in diet, sanitation and medicine, especially compulsory vaccination against many diseases.

Here’s a timeline of the world population growth:

Year 1: 200 million
Year 1000: 275 million
Year 1500: 450 million
Year 1650: 500 million
Year 1750: 700 million
Year 1804: 1 billion
Year 1850: 1.2 billion
Year 1900: 1.6 billion
Year 1927: 2 billion
Year 1950: 2.55 billion
Year 1955: 2.8 billion
Year 1960: 3 billion
Year 1970: 3.7 billion
Year 1985: 4.85 billion
Year 1999: 6 billion
Year 2011: 7 billion
Year 2025: 8 billion

How much larger can the world population get?

What happens next isn’t quite so clear.

Most people agree that population increases will continue, but there are arguments about the rate of increase, and even a few people who believe population decreases are likely. You can see some example trends in this graph.

The United Nations has gradually been revising its predictions downwards, and now believes that the world population in 2050 will be around 9 billion (illustrated by the yellow line on the chart). It believes that, as the world grows steadily richer and the average family size decreases, growth will steadily slow and eventually stop.

However, others believe that poverty, inequality and continued urbanization will encourage steadily increasing growth, particularly in countries in Africa and parts of Asia, where growth is already much higher than the global average.

A few scientists even believe that populations will decrease. Some believe that gradual increases in living standards will result in similar patterns to those in Western Europe, where birth rates are declining rapidly. Others believe that the current world population is unsustainable, and predict that humanity will simply not be able to produce enough food and oil to feed itself and sustain our industrial economy.

Largest Countries in the World 2016

More than half of the world’s current population lives in just ten countries.

The largest country in the world today is, of course, China, which is one of only two countries with a population of more than a billion people. To give you an indication of scale, with 1.36 billion people, China today has four times as many people as the United States of America.

Here’s a list of the ten largest countries in the world today:

Country	Population
China	1,367,485,388
India	1,251,695,584
United States	321,368,864
Indonesia	255,993,674
Brazil	204,259,812
Pakistan	199,085,847
Nigera	181,562,056
Bangladesh	168,957,745
Russia	142,423,773
Japan	126,919,659

Russia has fallen from 8th to 9th since 2012.

Smallest Countries in the World

By contrast, the total population of the world’s smallest countries is only just under 300,000. The smallest country in the world in 2016 is Vatican City, the small enclave within the Italian city of Rome that is ruled by the Pope and home to just over 800 people.

Country	Population
Dominica	73,607
Marshall Islands	72,191
Saint Kitts & Nevis	51,936
Liechtenstein	37,624
San Marino	33,020
Monaco	30,535
Palau	21,265
Tuvalu	10,869
Nauru	9,540
Vatican City	842

Largest Cities in the World

More than a hundred million people live in the world’s ten largest cities. Here’s a list of the largest cities in the world by population, most of which are in Asia:

Rank	City	Population	Country
1	Shanghai	24,256,800	China
2	Karachi	23,500,000	Pakistan
3	Beijing	21,516,000	China
4	Delhi	16,349,831	India
5	Lagos	16,060,303	Nigeria
6	Tianjin	15,200,000	China
7	Istanbul	14,160,467	Turkey
8	Tokyo	13,513,734	Japan
9	Guangzhou	13,080,500	China
10	Mumbai	12,442,373	India

This list sorts cities by the population in the city proper. The list looks very different when cities are listed by metropolitan population, in which case it breaks down as follows: Tokyo (36.9 million), Shanghai (34 million), Jakarta (30 million), Seoul (25.5 million), Guangzhou (25 million), Beijing (24.9 million), Shenzhen (23.3 million), Delhi (21.7 million), Mexico City (21.3 million), and Lagos (21 million).

More information about the 2016 world population

This is just a basic introduction to the world population in 2016. For more information, check out any of the links or videos in the article, or feel free to explore the rest of our site!

Источник

A) How many people do live here?
B) How many people live here?

Which one is correct?

Cagey

post mod (English Only / Latin)

They are both correct, but B is the one we would usually say.
‘Do live’ in the A is emphatic. We would use it only in specific contexts.

For instance:
Jane: You’re wrong. It’s not true that 500 people live here.
Max: All right. How many people do live here?

Thank you. But would you please tell me why A without »do» is correct? And what do you mean by »emphatic»? You mean that’s for emphasizing?

… You mean that’s for emphasizing?

Yes. How many people do live here? = How many people really live here?… How many people in fact live here?And note that when speaking, the words I wrote in bold above are stressed, so it’s /du:/ and not /də/.

Thank you. But why won’t you use »do» in »B’?

Sample conversation:

Bob: I thought six people lived here.
Mary: No, I don’t think so.
Bob: Well then, how many people do live here?
Jim: Seven people.

That is a situation when you would use «do.»

Myridon

There is no context. Without context, there is no reason for emphasis. Adding emphasis for no reason is pointless and confusing.

There are several threads on this subject, which I found by searching for ’emphasis do’.

Last edited: May 21, 2014

But «How many people do live here?» is a question. Don’t we usually use an inversion in questions (except when a question is to the subject)? :confused:

But «How many people do live here?» is a question. Don’t we usually use an inversion in questions (except when a question is to the subject)?

That would be true if the sentence were a yes-or-no question such as:

Do the people live here?
Do you live here?
Does she live here?

But the question is how many people live here, not whether they live here or not.

That would be true if the sentence were a yes-or-no question such as:

Do the people live here?
Do you live here?
Does she live here?

But the question is how many people live here, not whether they live here or not.

«How many people (do) live here?» is a special question. Just like these:
Where (do) the people live?
What kind of people (do) live there?
When (did) the people come here?
Does that mean I can leave out «do» in all these questions?

Myridon

Where (do) the people live?
What kind of people (do) live there?
When (did) the people come here?
Does that mean I can leave out «do» in all these questions?

Which ones have inversion? The questions that use inversion need the «do.»

When the question is put to any part of the sentence, except the subject, the word order after the interrogative word (e.g., how, whom, what, when, where, why) is the same as in general questions: interrogative + auxiliary verb + subject + main verb (+ object + adverbial modifier).
(….)
How many people did he see?

http://usefulenglish.ru/grammar/word-order-in-questions
:confused:

Myridon

He saw 100 people. He did see 100 people.
How many people did he see?
Do you see how «did» moved before the subject «he»? That is inversion.

100 people live here. 100 people do live here.
How many people (do) live here?
Has «do» moved so that it is in front of the subject? No. There is no inversion.

Has «do» moved so that it is in front of the subject? No. There is no inversion.

The point is that I was thought that the questions to
He saw 100 people and 100 people live here
are How many people did he see? and How many people do live here?
That is, that we add «do» just because it’s questions, not because of emphasizing…

Do you mean that in all questions (except yes/no-questions) we can use the usual word order and just show that we ask something by intonation?

Myridon

Inversion occurs in other questions besides yes/no questions.
John read A Christmas Carol.
What book did he read?
Starting with «How many…» is not the «usual word order» for a statement.

The point is that I was thought that the questions to
He saw 100 people and 100 people live here
are How many people did he see? and How many people do live here?
That is, that we add «do» just because it’s questions, not because of emphasizing…

Aha! That is wrong.
How many people did he see? is correct

with or without

emphasis {we cannot say How many people he see?}, but
How many people do live here? is correct

only with

emphasis. The correct

non-emphatic

form is How many people live there?.

Why are they different?
In one sentence, see is transitive and people is the object (he is the subject);
in the other sentence, live is intransitive and there is no object (people is the subject).

DO can function as:
1. Auxiliary
2. Emphasis

In the sentence ‘How many people do live here?’ DO works as an emphasis.

In the sentence ‘How many people live here?’ DO cannot work as an auxiliary, so we omit it, because in interrogative sentences we put a subject after auxiliaries and in this one people themselves are the subject, so we cannot say ‘How many do people live here?’ and also we cannot say ‘How many people do live here?’ using DO as an auxiliary as there will be no subject after it (do live is not a correct formation / do

you

live is a correct one), hence we leave DO out and actually, it is just a question to the

attribute of the subject

(like ‘What weather irritates you?’ or ‘Whose performance was the best?’), right?

Examples

A: What weather irritates you?
B: Bad weather irritates me.

A: Whose performance was the best?
B: My performance was the best.

A: How many students study foreign languages?
B: Five students study foreign languages.

(we are in England, we are natives)
A: Ben doesn’t study Italian, Kathy doesn’t study Russian, Simon doesn’t study Chinese, I don’t study any foreign languages.
B: How many students do study foreign languages? (here do = in fact or indeed which is a simple emphasis on the factual quantity as ‘B» has started to believe that none studies foreign languages, so he is a bit emotional).

Best regards,
Michael

Cagey

post mod (English Only / Latin)

Yes, I agree with your analysis of the last question [How many people do…..?]

I don’t. In «How many people do live here?» (emphatic), ‘do’ is still an auxiliary verb.

Last edited: Jan 26, 2020

The point is that the question is not whether you

can

use an auxiliary, but whether you

must

. Typically the auxiliary is required

either

for emphasis

because of the interrogative inversion, when the object is placed before the subject. In the latter case you cannot tell (from a written question) whether there is emphasis (you could tell from a spoken question, because then the auxiliary would be accented).

How many languages(object) did he(subject) learn? — Object before subject: auxiliary required
How many people(subject) studied languages(object)? — Object not before subject: auxiliary not required
How many people(subject) went to the party? — No object: auxiliary not required

In the last two examples above, where the auxiliary is not needed, it can be used for emphasis:
«studied» would become «did study», and «went» would become «did go». Notice that «study» and «go» are bare infinitives here.
This doesn’t work with «to be»:
How many people were at the party?
We can’t make this emphatic by changing «were» to «did be», only by accenting «were».

DO can function as:
1. Auxiliary 2. Emphasis
In the sentence ‘How many people do live here?’ DO works as an emphasis.

Emphatic «do» is an auxiliary verb.

I did say that in post #21.

And I tacitly took that into account in #22.
Thus MG’s question changes from «Is do emphatic, or is it auxiliary?» to «Is auxiliary do emphatic or not?».

Note also that emphatic «do» is used to emphasise the polarity of the clause, i.e. either positive or negative.

Last edited: Jan 26, 2020

The ‘do’ that is used in the construction of negative forms is an auxiliary verb, but it is not emphatic. In a full emphatic form do not, it is the ‘not’ that is stressed in speech. In the contract form, of course, it is the whole form don’t that is stressed.

Ed never did believe my excuse.

A perfectly genuine example of an emphatic negative where supportive do is added just to carry the stress that marks negative polarity.

Источник

When and why did the world population grow? And how does rapid population growth come to an end? These are the big questions that are central to this research article.

The world population increased from 1 billion in 1800 to around 8 billion today.

The world population growth rate declined from around 2% per year 50 years ago to under 1.0% per year.

Other relevant research:

Future population growth – This article focuses on the future of population growth. We explain how we know that population growth is coming to an end, and present projections of the drivers of population growth.

Life expectancy – Improving health leads to falling mortality and is, therefore, the factor that increases the size of the population. Life expectancy, which measures the age of death, has doubled in every region in the world as we show here.

Child & infant mortality – Mortality at a young age has a particularly big impact on demographic change.

Fertility rates – Rapid population growth has been a temporary phenomenon in many countries. It comes to an end when the average number of births per woman – the fertility rate – declines. In the article we show the data and explain why fertility rates declined.

Age Structure – What is the age profile of populations around the world? How did it change and what will the age structure of populations look like in the future?

Interactive charts on World Population Growth

How is the global population distributed across the world?

One way to understand the distribution of people across the world is to reform the world map, not based on the area but according to population.

This is shown here in a population cartogram: a geographical presentation of the world where the size of the countries is not drawn according to the distribution of land, but according to the distribution of people. The cartogram shows where in the world the global population was at home in 2018.

The cartogram is made up of squares, each of which represents half a million people of a country’s population. The 11.5 million Belgians are represented by 23 squares; the 49.5 million Colombians are represented by 99 squares; the 1.415 billion people in China are represented by 2830 squares, and the entire world population of 7.633 billion people in 2018 is represented by the total sum of 15,266 squares.

As the size of the population rather than the size of the territory is shown in this map you can see some big differences when you compare it to the standard geographical map we’re most familiar with. Small countries with a high population density increase in size in this cartogram relative to the world maps we are used to – look at Bangladesh, Taiwan, or the Netherlands. Large countries with a small population shrink in size (look for Canada, Mongolia, Australia, or Russia).

You can find more details on this cartogram in our explainer: ‘The map we need if we want to think about how global living conditions are changing‘.

[click on the cartogram to enlarge it. And here you can download the population cartogram in high resolution (6985×2650).]

Which countries are most densely populated?

Geographical maps often shape our understanding of the world. But this tells us nothing about where in the world people live. To understand this, we need to look at population density.

Population density is a measure of how densely populated an area is. It is calculated by dividing the total population of an area by its total land area.

The map shows the number of people per square kilometer (km²) across the world.

Globally the average population density is 62 people per km² in 2023, but there are very large differences across countries.

Many of the world’s small islands or isolated states have large populations for their size. The five most densely populated are Macao, Monaco, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Gibraltar. Singapore has 8,480 people per km² – more than 200 times as dense as the United States and 2,000 times as Australia.

Of the larger countries¹, Bangladesh is the most densely populated, with 1,330 people per km². This is almost three times as dense as its neighbor, India. It’s followed by Rwanda (571), South Korea (531), Lebanon (523), and the Netherlands (523).

You can see the world’s least densely populated countries if you hover your mouse over the brackets from 0 to 10 on the legend. Greenland is the least dense, with around 0.1 people per km², followed by Mongolia, Namibia, Australia, and Iceland.

If we want to understand how people are distributed across the world, another useful tool is the population cartogram: a geographical presentation of the world where the size of the countries is not drawn according to the distribution of land, but according to the distribution of people.

Here we show how the world looks in this way. When we see a standard map, we focus on the largest countries by area. But these are not always where the greatest number of people live. It’s this context we need if we want to understand how the lives of people around the world are changing.

Population growth

How has world population growth changed over time?
Population growth by world region
Population growth by country
The distribution of the world population over the last 5000 years
Population growth rate by country and region

How has world population growth changed over time?

World population from 10,000 BCE to today

The chart shows the increasing number of people living on our planet over the last 12,000 years. A mind-boggling change: the world population today is around 2,000 times the size of what it was 12,000 ago when the world population was around 4 million – less than half of the current population of London.

What is striking about this chart is of course that almost all of this growth happened just very recently. Historical demographers estimate that around the year 1800 the world population was only around 1 billion people. This implies that on average the population grew very slowly over this long time from 10,000 BCE to 1700 (by 0.04% annually). After 1800 this changed fundamentally: the world population was around 1 billion in the year 1800 and is now, at around 8 billion, 8 times larger.

Around 108 billion people have ever lived on our planet. This means that today’s population size makes up 6.5% of the total number of people ever born.²

For the long period from the appearance of modern Homo sapiens up to the starting point of this chart in 10,000 BCE it is estimated that the total world population was often well under one million.³ In this period our species was often seriously threatened by extinction.⁴

The interactive visualization is here. And you can also download the annual world population data produced by Our World in Data.

A number of researchers have published estimates for the total world population over the long run, we have brought these estimates together and you can explore these various sources here.

Annual world population since 10 thousand bce

Explore the interactive version of this chart

How has the world population growth rate changed?

In terms of recent developments, the data from the UN Population Division provides consistent and comparable estimates (and projections) within and across countries and time, over the last century. This data starts from estimates for 1950 and is updated periodically to reflect changes in fertility, mortality, and international migration.

In the section above we looked at the absolute change in the global population over time. But what about the rate of population growth?

The global population growth rate peaked long ago. The chart shows that global population growth reached a peak in 1962 and 1963 with an annual growth rate of 2.2%; but since then, world population growth has halved.

For the last half-century we have lived in a world in which the population growth rate has been declining. The UN projects that this decline will continue in the coming decades.

A common question we’re asked is: is the global population growing exponentially? The answer is no. For population growth to be exponential, the growth rate would have be the same over time (e.g. 2% growth every year). In absolute terms, this would result in an exponential increase in the number of people. That’s because we’d be multiplying an ever-larger number of people by the same 2%. 2% of the population this year would be larger than 2% last year, and so on; this means the population would grow exponentially.

But, as we see in this chart, since the 1960s the growth rate has been falling. This means the world population is not growing exponentially – for decades now, growth has been more similar to a linear trend.

Updated world population growth rate annual 1950 2100

The absolute annual change of the population

The previous section looked at the growth rate. This visualization here shows the annual global population increase from 1950 to today and the projection until the end of this century.

The absolute increase of the population per year has peaked in the late 1980s at over 90 million additional people each year. But it stayed high until recently. From now on the UN expects the annual increase to decline by around 1 million every year.

Population growth over the long run

There are other ways of visually representing the change in rate of world population growth. Two examples of this are shown in the charts below.

How long did it take for the world population to double?

The visualization shows how strongly the growth rate of the world population changed over time. In the past the population grew slowly: it took nearly seven centuries for the population to double from 0.25 billion (in the early 9th century) to 0.5 billion in the middle of the 16th century. As the growth rate slowly climbed, the population doubling time fell but remained in the order of centuries into the first half of the 20th century. Things sped up considerably in the middle of the 20th century.

The fastest doubling of the world population happened between 1950 and 1987: a doubling from 2.5 to 5 billion people in just 37 years — the population doubled within a little more than one generation. This period was marked by a peak population growth of 2.1% in 1962.

Since then, population growth has been slowing, and along with it the doubling time. In this visualisation we have used the UN projections to show how the doubling time is projected to change until the end of this century. By 2100, it will once again have taken approximately 100 years for the population to double to a predicted 10.8 billion.

How long did it take for the world population to increase by one billion?

This visualization provides an additional perspective on population growth: the number of years it took to add one billion to the global population. This is based on the 2022 revision of world population estimates from the UN Population Division.

This visualization shows again how the population growth rate has changed dramatically over time. It wasn’t until 1805 that the world reached its first billion; it then took another 120 years to reach two billion. By the third billion, this period had reduced to 35 years, reduced further to 14 years to reach four. The period of fastest growth occurred from 1974 to 2011, taking only 12 to 13 years to increase by one billion for the 5th, 6th, and 7th.

The world has now surpassed this peak rate of growth, and the period between each billion is expected to continue to rise. It’s estimated to take approximately 14 years to reach nine billion in 2024, and a further 21 years to reach 10 billion in 2058. The latest UN medium projection expects that the world will not reach 11 billion people this century: it projects the population to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086 before falling again.

Time taken to increase population by one billion

Population growth by world region

Two hundred years ago the world population was just over one billion. Since then the number of people on the planet grew more than 8-fold to around 8 billion today. How is the world population distributed across regions and how did it change over this period of rapid global growth?

In this visualization, we see historical population estimates by region from 1800 through to today. These estimates are published by the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) and the United Nations Population Division from 1950 onwards.

Most people always lived in Asia: today it represents 60% of the global population; in 1800 it was 69%. If you want to see the relative distribution across the world regions in more detail you can check the ‘Relative’ box.

The distribution of the world population is expected to change significantly over the 21st century. We discuss projections of population by region here.

Population growth by country

What are the most populous countries in the world?

Over the last century, the world has seen rapid population growth. But how are populations distributed across the world? Which countries have the most people?

In the map, we see the estimated population of each country today. To see how this has changed since 1800, you can use the ‘play’ button and timeline in the bottom-left of the chart. By clicking on any country, you can also see how its population has evolved over this period.

Here we see that the top five most populous countries are:

(1) China (1.43 billion)

(2) India (1.41 billion)

(3) United States (337 million)

(4) Indonesia (274 million)

(5) Pakistan (231 million)

For several centuries, China has been the world’s most populous country. But not for long: it’s expected that India will overtake China within the next decade. You can learn more about future population growth by country here.

The distribution of the world population over the last 5000 years

This series of maps shows the distribution of the world population over time. The first map – in the top-left corner – shows the world population in 3000 BC.

Population centers have stayed remarkably stable over this long period.

Global population distribution over 5000 years

Population growth rate by country and region

Global population growth peaked in the early 1960s. But how has population growth varied across the world?

There are two metrics we can use to look at population growth rates:

(1) ‘Natural population growth’: this is the change in population as determined by births and deaths only. Migration flows are not counted.

(2) Population growth rate: this is the change in population as determined by births, deaths, and migration flows.

Both of these measures of population growth across the world are shown in the two charts. You can use the slider underneath each map to look at this change since 1950. Clicking on any country will show a line chart of its change over time, with UN projections through to 2100.

We see that there are some countries today where the natural population growth (not including migration) is slightly negative: the number of deaths exceeds the number of births. When we move the time slider underneath the map to past years, we see that this is a new phenomenon. Up until the 1970s, there were no countries with negative natural population growth.

Worldwide, population growth is slowing—you can press the play arrow at the bottom of the chart to see the change over time.

Overall, growth rates in most countries have been going down since the 1960s. Yet substantial differences exist across countries and regions.

Whilst Western Europe’s growth rates are currently close to zero, sub-Saharan Africa’s rates remain higher than 3% — that is, still higher than the peak growth rates recorded for the world at the beginning of the 1960s. Moreover, in many cases, there has been a divergence in growth rates. For instance, while India and Nigeria had similar growth rates in 1960 (around 2%), they took very different paths in the following years and thus currently have populations that grow at very different rates (about 0.7% for India compared to 2.4% for Nigeria).

Two centuries of rapid global population growth will come to an end

One of the big lessons from the demographic history of countries is that periods of rapid population growth are temporary. For many countries, the demographic transition has already ended, and as the global fertility rate has now halved we know that the world as a whole is approaching the end of rapid population growth.

This visualization presents an overview of the global demographic transition, based on estimates from the 2022 data release from the UN Population Division.

As we explore at the beginning of the entry on population growth, the global population grew only very slowly up to 1700 – only 0.04% per year. In the many millennia up to that point in history very high mortality of children counteracted high fertility. The world was in the first stage of the demographic transition.

Once health improved and mortality declined things changed quickly. Particularly over the course of the 20th century: Over the last 100 years global population more than quadrupled. As we see in the chart, the rise of the global population got steeper and steeper and you have just lived through the steepest increase of that curve. This also means that your existence is a tiny part of the reason why that curve is so steep.

The 7-fold increase of the world population over the course of two centuries amplified humanity’s impact on the natural environment. To provide space, food, and resources for a large world population in a way that is sustainable into the distant future is without question one of the large, serious challenges for our generation. We should not make the mistake of underestimating the task ahead of us. Yes, I expect new generations to contribute, but for now, it is upon us to provide for them. Population growth is still fast: every year, 134 million are born, and 58 million die.⁵ The difference is the number of people that we add to the world population in a year: 76 million.

Where do we go from here?

In pink, you see the annual population growth rate (that is, the percentage change in population per year) of the global population. It peaked around half a century ago. Peak population growth was reached in 1963 with an annual growth of 2.3%.

Since then the increase of the world population has slowed and today grows by 0.9% per year. This slowdown of population growth was not only predictable but predicted. Just as expected by demographers, the world as a whole is experiencing the closing of a massive demographic transition.

This chart also shows how the United Nations envision the end of the global demographic transition. As population growth continues to decline, the curve representing the world population is getting less and less steep.

Towards the end of the century, the UN expects the global population to reach its peak at around 10.4 billion. After this point, the UN demographers project global population growth to become negative, so that the world population starts to fall slowly.

It is hard to know the population dynamics beyond 2100. It will depend on the fertility rate and – as we discuss in our entry on fertility rates – fertility first falls with development, and then rises with development. The question will be whether it will rise above an average of 2 children per woman.

The world enters the last phase of the demographic transition and this means we will not repeat the past. The global population has quadrupled over the course of the 20th century, but it will not double anymore over the course of this century.

The world population will reach a size that, compared to humanity’s history, will be extraordinary; if the UN projections are accurate (they have a good track record), the world population will have increased more than 10-fold over the span of 250 years.

We are on the way to a new balance. The big global demographic transition that the world entered more than two centuries ago is then coming to an end. This new equilibrium is different from the one in the past when it was the very high mortality that kept population growth in check. In the new balance, it will be low fertility that keeps population changes small.

2019 revision – world population growth 1700 2100

The past and future of the global age structure

In 1950 there were 2.5 billion people on the planet. Now, there are more than 8 billion. By the end of the century, the UN expects a global population of around 10.4 billion. This visualization of the population pyramid makes it possible to understand this enormous global transformation.

Population pyramids visualize the demographic structure of a population. The width represents the size of the population of a given age; women on the right and men on the left. The bottom layer represents the number of newborns and above it, you find the numbers of older cohorts. Represented in this way the population structure of societies with high mortality rates resembled a pyramid – this is how this famous type of visualization got its name.

In the darkest blue, you see the pyramid that represents the structure of the world population in 1950. Two factors are responsible for the pyramid shape in 1950: An increasing number of births broadened the base layer of the population pyramid and a continuously-high risk of death throughout life is evident by the pyramid narrowing towards the top. There were many newborns relative to the number of people at older ages.

The narrowing of the pyramid just above the base is testimony to the fact that more than 1 in 5 children born in 1950 died before they reached the age of five.⁶

Through shades of blue and green the same visualization shows the population structure over the last decades up to 2018. You see that in each subsequent decade the population pyramid was larger than before – in each decade more people of all ages were added to the world population.

If you look at the green pyramid for 2018 you see that the narrowing above the base is much less strong than back in 1950; the child mortality rate fell from 1-in-5 in 1950 to fewer than 1-in-20 today.

In comparing 1950 and 2018 we see that the number of children born has increased – 97 million in 1950 to 143 million today – and that the mortality of children decreased at the same time. If you now compare the base of the pyramid in 2018 with the projection for 2100 you see that the coming decades will not resemble the past: According to the projections there will be fewer children born at the end of this century than today. The base of the future population structure is narrower.

We are at a turning point in global population history. Between 1950 and today, it was a widening of the entire pyramid – an increase in the number of children – that was responsible for the increase of the world population. From now on is not a widening of the base, but a ‘fill up’ of the population above the base: the number of children will barely increase and then start to decline, but the number of people of working age and old age will increase very substantially. As global health is improving and mortality is falling, the people alive today are expected to live longer than any generation before us.

At a country level “peak child” is often followed by a time in which the country benefits from a “demographic dividend” when the proportion of the dependent young generation falls and the share of the population of working age increases.⁸

This is now happening on a global scale. For every child younger than 15 there were 1.7 people of working age (15 to 64) in 1950; today there are 2.6; and by the end of the century, there will be 3.6.⁹

Richer countries have benefited from this transition in the last decades and are now facing the demographic problem of an increasingly larger share of retired people who are not part of the labor market. In the coming decades, it will be the poorer countries that can benefit from this demographic dividend.

The change from 1950 to today and the projections to 2100 show a world population that is becoming healthier. When the top of the pyramid becomes wider and looks less like a pyramid and instead becomes more box-shaped, the population lives through younger ages with a very low risk of death and dies at an old age. The demographic structure of a healthy population at the final stage of the demographic transition is the box shape that we see for the entire world in 2100.

The Demography of the World Population from 1950 to 2100⁷

How many people die and how many are born each year?

The world population has grown rapidly, particularly over the past century: in 1900, there were fewer than 2 billion people on the planet. The world population is around 8045311488 in 2023.

Two metrics determine the change in the world population: the number of babies born and the number of people dying.

How many babies are born each year?

The first chart shows the annual number of births since 1950 and includes the projection made by the UN until the end of the century. You can switch this chart to any other country or world region.

There were 133.99 million births in 2022, compared to 92.08 million births in 1950.

The second chart shows the annual number of births by world region from 1950 to 2021.

How many people die each year?

The first chart here shows the annual number of deaths since 1950 and includes the projection made by the UN until the end of the century. Again, it is possible to switch this chart to any other country or world region.

There were 67.1 million deaths in 2022.

The world population, therefore, increased by 65.81 million in 2022 (that is a net increase of 0.84%).

The second chart shows the annual number of deaths by world region from 1950 to 2021.

As the number of deaths approaches the number of births, global population growth will end.

How do we expect this to change in the coming decades? What does this mean for population growth?

Population projections show that the yearly number of births will remain at around 130 to 140 million per year over the coming decades. It is expected to decline slowly in the second half of the century. As the world population ages, the annual number of deaths is expected to continue to increase in the coming decades until it reaches a similar annual number as global births towards the end of the century.

As the number of births is expected to fall slowly and the number of deaths to rise, the global population growth rate will continue to fall. This is when the world population will stop increasing in the future.

Why is rapid population growth a temporary phenomenon?

The demographic transition

Population growth is determined by births and deaths and every country has seen very substantial changes in both: In our overview on how health has changed over the long run you find the data on the dramatic decline of child mortality that has been achieved in all parts of the world. And in our coverage of fertility you find the data and research on how modern socio-economic changes – most importantly structural changes to the economy and a rise of the status and opportunities for women – contributed to a very substantial reduction of the number of children that women have.

But declining mortality rates and declining fertility rates alone would not explain why the population increases. If they happened at the same time the growth rate of the population would not change in this transition. What is crucial here is the timing at which mortality and fertility changes.

The model that explains why rapid population growth happens is called the ‘demographic transition’. It is shown in the schematic figure. It is a beautifully simple model that describes the observed pattern in countries around the world and is one of the great insights of demography.¹⁰

The demographic transition is a sequence of five stages:

Stage 1: high mortality and high birth rates. In the long time before rapid population growth the birth rate in a population is high, but since the death rate is also high we observe no or only very small population growth. This describes the reality through most of our history. Societies around the world remained in stage 1 for many millennia as the long-run perspective on extremely slow population growth highlighted. At this stage the population pyramid is broad at the base but since the mortality rate is high across all ages – and the risk of death is particularly high for children – the pyramid gets much narrower towards the top.
Stage 2: mortality falls but birth rates still high. In the second phase the health of the population slowly starts to improve and the death rate starts to fall. Since the health of the population has already improved, but fertility still remains as high as before, this is the stage of the transition at which the size of the population starts to grow rapidly. Historically it is the exceptional time at which the extended family with many (surviving) children is common.
Stage 3: mortality low and birth rates fall. Later the birth rate starts to fall and consequentially the rate at which the population grows begins to decline as well. Why the fertility rate falls is a question that we answer here. But to summarize the main points: When the mortality of children is not as high as it once was parents adapt to the healthier environment and choose to have fewer children; the economy is undergoing structural changes that makes children less economically valuable; and women are empowered socially and within partnerships and have fewer children than before.
Stage 4: mortality low and birth rates low. Rapid population growth comes to an end in stage 4 as the birth rate falls to a similar level as the already low mortality rate. The population pyramid is now box shaped; as the mortality rate at young ages is now very low the younger cohorts are now very similar in size and only at an old age the cohorts get smaller very rapidly.
Stage 5: mortality low and some evidence of rising fertility. The demographic transition describes changes over the course of socio-economic modernization. What happens at a very high level of development is not a question we can answer with certainty since only few societies have reached this stage. But we do have some good evidence – which we review here – that at very high levels of development fertility is rising again. Not to the very high levels of pre-modern times, but to a fertility rate that gets close to 2 children per woman. What level exactly the fertility rate will reach is crucial for the question of what happens to population growth in the long run. If the fertility rate stays below 2 children per woman then we will see a decline of the population size in the long run. If indeed the fertility rate will rise above 2 children per woman we will see a slow long-run increase of the population size.

Empirical evidence for the demographic transition

Rapid population growth is a temporary phenomenon

If fertility fell in lockstep with mortality we would not have seen an increase in the population at all. The demographic transition works through the asynchronous timing of the two fundamental demographic changes: The decline in the death rate is followed by the decline in birth rates.

This decline in the death rate followed by a decline in the birth rate is something we observe with great regularity and independent of the culture or religion of the population.

The chart presents the empirical evidence for the demographic transition for five very different countries in Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. In all countries, we observed the pattern of the demographic transition, first a decline in mortality that starts the population boom and then a decline in fertility which brings the population boom to an end. The population boom is a temporary event.

In the past, the size of the population was stagnant because of high mortality. Now country after country are moving into a world in which the population is stagnant because of low fertility.

Demographic transition in 5 countries, 1820-2010¹¹

Ourworldindata demographic transition 5 countriesi

England and Wales’s demographic transition

Perhaps the longest available view of the demographic transition comes from data for England and Wales. In 1981, Anthony Wrigley and Roger Schofield¹² published a major research project analyzing English parish registers—a unique source that allowed them to trace demographic changes for the three centuries prior to state records. According to the researchers, “England is exceptionally fortunate in having several thousand parish registers that begin before 1600”; collectively, with their early start and breadth of coverage, these registers form an excellent resource. As far as we know, there is no comparable data for any other country up until the mid-eighteenth century (see the following section for Sweden, where recordkeeping began in 1749).

The chart shows the birth and death rates in England and Wales over the span of nearly 500 years. It stitches together Wrigley and Schofield’s data for the years 1541-1861 with two other sources up to 2015 (click on the chart’s ‘sources’ tab for details). As we can see, a growing gap opens up between the birth and death rate after 1750, creating a population explosion. Around the 1870’s, we begin to see the third stage of the demographic transition. As the birth rate starts to follow the death rate’s decline, that gap between the two starts to shrink, slowing down the population growth rate.

Sweden’s demographic transition

Zooming in on one of these countries, we take a look at Sweden’s demographic transition. The country’s long history of population recordkeeping—starting in 1749 with their original statistical office, ‘the Tabellverket’ (Office of Tables)—makes it a particularly interesting case study of the mechanisms driving population change.

Statistics Sweden, the successor of the Tabellverket, publishes data on both deaths and births since recordkeeping began more than 250 years ago. These records suggest that around the year 1800, the Swedish death rate started falling, mainly due to improvements in health and living standards, especially for children.¹³

Yet while death rates were falling, birth rates remained at a constant pre-modern level until the 1860s. During this period and up until the first half of the 20th century, there was a sustained gap between the frequency of deaths and the frequency of births. It was because of this gap that the Swedish population increased. The following visualization supports these observations.

Changes to birth and death rate over time around the world

The visualization presents the birth and death rate for all countries of the world over the last 5 decades. You can see the change over by moving the slider underneath back and forth or by pressing the “play” button. Countries per continent can also be highlighted by hovering and clicking on them in the legend on the right side of the chart.

By visualising this change we see how in country after country the death rate fell and the birth rate followed – countries moved to left-hand-side first and then fell to the bottom left corner.

Today, different countries straddle different stages of the model. Most developed countries have reached stage four and have low birth and death rates, while developing countries continue to make their way through the stages.

How development affects population growth

There are two important relationships that help explain how the level of development of a country affects its population growth rates:

Fertility rate is the parameter which matters most for population changes – it is the strongest determinant;
As a country gets richer (or ‘more developed’), fertility rates tend to fall.

Combining these two relationships, we would expect that as a country develops, population growth rates decline.

Generally, this is true. In the visualization, we see how the population growth rate has changed for ‘more developed’, ‘less developed’ and ‘least developed’ countries (based on UN categorization), and how they are projected to change through 2100.

Here we see that population growth rates are lowest in the most developed regions – starting at just over 1% in the 1950s and falling to just barely negative growth today. ‘Less developed’ regions peaked later, at a higher growth rate (2.8%) and have declined more slowly. ‘Least developed’ regions did not peak in growth rate until the early 1990s.

Over the last two decades we have seen declining population growth rates in countries at all stages of development.

Population momentum

If the number of children is not growing, why is the population still increasing?

In 1965 the average woman on the planet had 5 children. 50 years later this statistic – called the total fertility rate – has fallen to less than half. The first panel in this chart shows this fundamental change.

The total fertility rate at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next is called the replacement fertility rate. If no children died before they grew up to have children themselves the replacement fertility rate would be 2. Because some children die, the global replacement fertility rate is currently 2.3 and therefore only slightly lower than the actual global fertility rate (2.46). Why then is global population growth not coming to an end yet?

The number of births per woman in the reproductive age bracket is only one of two drivers that matter here. The second one is the number of women in the reproductive age bracket.

If there were few women in the reproductive age bracket the number of births will be low even when the fertility rate is high. At times when an increasing share of women enter the reproductive age bracket the population can keep growing even if the fertility rate is falling. This is what demographers refer to as ‘population momentum’ and it explains why the number of children in the world will not decline as rapidly as the fertility rate.

The second chart in this panel shows that the population growth over the last decades resulted in increasingly larger cohorts of women in the reproductive age bracket. As a result, the number of births will stay high even as the number of births per woman is falling. This is what the bottom panel in the chart shows. According to the UN projections, the two drivers will cancel each other out so that the number of births will stay close to the current level for many decades.

The number of births is projected to change little over the course of this century. In the middle of the 21st century the number of births is projected to reach a peak at 143 million and then to decline slowly to 131 million births by 2100. The coming decades will be very different from the last. While the annual number of births increased by 43 million since 1950 we are now close to what the late Hans Rosling called “the age of peak child” – the moment in global demographic history at which the number of children in the world stops increasing.

Population momentum is one important driver for high population growth. But it of course also matters that all of us today live much longer than our ancestors just a few generations ago. Life expectancy is now twice as long in all world regions.

In all of this it is important to keep in mind that these are projections and how the future will actually play out will depend on what we are doing today.

Population momentum is driven by the increasingly large cohorts of women in the reproductive age bracket. It’s only when both the fertility rate and the number of women level off that population momentum stops. And this is when global population growth will come to an end. Hans Rosling explained it better than anyone, with the help of toilet rolls.

How does migration affect country populations?

At the global level, population changes are determined by the balance of only two variables: the number of people born each year, and the number who die.

At regional or country levels there is a third variable to consider: migration into (immigration) or migration out of (emigration) the region/country. How large of an impact does migration have on population changes across the world?

In this chart we see the annual population growth rate under two scenarios:

population growth rate with migration – this includes the balance of births, deaths plus migration;
a hypothetical population growth rate if there was zero migration (i.e. it is based only on the balance of births and deaths).

The example shown here is the United States but you can explore this data for any country or region using the “change country” button on the interactive chart.

In the United States we see that since the early 1950s, migration into the USA has exceeded emigration out of the country. This means net migration has been positive, and resulted in a higher population growth rate than would have occurred in the scenario with zero migration. In 2021, for example, the actual population growth rate was 0.3%. With zero migration, this would have been 0.13%.

This is also true for most countries across Europe. In fact, population growth would have been negative (i.e. the population would have been in decline) in Europe since the early 1990s without migration. In 2021, the European population decreased by 0.18%; with no migration, it would have decreased by 0.37%.

Data quality

The track record of the UN projections
How much do population estimates differ?
How are population revisions created?
What is the quality of birth and death registration?

The track record of the UN projections

How much do population estimates differ?

It’s expected that sources will differ in their projections for future populations: although the UN projections to date have been remarkably accurate, they are based on a number of assumptions regarding the change in fertility, mortality and migration over time.

But historic and current population estimates between sources are also not identical. The UN Population Division publishes the most-widely adopted figures, but there are a few other key data sources including the US Census Bureau and Population Reference Bureau (PRB).

How do these sources compare? In the chart we see the comparison between the UN (shown in red) and US Census Bureau (in blue) estimates globally and by region. Global estimates have varied by around 0.5-1.5%.

The largest variation comes from estimates of Asia, Africa and Latin America – where census data and underlying data sources will be less complete and lower quality. This means some interpretation and judgement is necessary from expert demographers within each organization. It’s in this process of expert interpretation that most of the difference will arise.

A comparison of 2015 estimates between the UN, US Census Bureau and PBS are shown in this table.¹⁴^,¹⁵^,¹⁶

Here we see that the UN and PBS estimates are very similar at around 7.34 to 7.35 billion. US Census Bureau estimates are around 1-2% lower at 7.25 billion.

With known gaps in census data and underlying sources, it’s recommended that population estimates are given to only 3 to 4 significant figures. Quoting them to more gives a false sense of precision. Across the sources, we can say that there were 7.25 to 7.4 billion people in the world in 2015.

Global and regional population estimates us census bureau vs un

Source	World population (2015)
United Nations Population Division (2017 Revision)	7,383,009,000
US Census Bureau (2017)	7,247,892,788
Population Reference Bureau (2015)	7,336,435,000

How are population revisions created?

The most discussed estimates of world population from the last century are those from the UN Population Division. These estimates are revised periodically and aim to be consistent and comparable within and across countries and time.

The methodology used by the UN to produce their estimates and projections is explained extensively in the World Population Prospects’ Methodology Report.

In short, estimates of the population in the past (i.e. 1950-2015) are produced by starting with a base population for 1 July 1950 and computing subsequent populations based on the components that drive population change (fertility, mortality, and international migration). The estimates of these components are taken directly from national statistical sources or—where only partial or poor-quality data exists—are estimated by the Population Division staff. Population counts from periodic censuses are used as benchmarks. This calculation is called the “cohort-component” method because it estimates the change in population by age and sex (cohort) on the basis of the three aforementioned demographic components: fertility, mortality, and international migration.

One of the main implications of using the cohort-component method is that it sometimes leads to marked inconsistencies with official country statistics. The process of ‘revising’ the estimates involves incorporating new information about the demography of each country.

What is the quality of birth and death registration?

The standard methodology used for producing population estimates relies on the so-called cohort model. Providing high-quality estimates requires reliable and up-to-date census data.

Crucial to population estimates are birth and mortality rates: this census data, therefore, relies on birth registration and death reporting.

The two maps show the completeness of birth and death reporting across the world. Many countries, particularly those in the least developed regions of the world, have limited census data.

For countries with no data in one or two decades before each revision, the UN relies on other methodologies. One is to derive estimates by extrapolating trends from countries in the same region with a socio-economic profile considered close to the country in question.

Data sources

Estimates of ancient population
Estimates of population in recent history and projections
Compilations of census data and other sources

Estimates of ancient population

As discussed in the previous section, there are a number of studies providing historic population data. The most commonly cited source is McEvedy and Jones (1978).

McEvedy and Jones (1978)

Data Source: McEvedy, Colin and Richard Jones (1978), “Atlas of World Population History,” Facts on File, New York, pp. 342-351; relying on archeological and anthropological evidence, as well as historical documents such as Roman and Chinese censuses
Description of available measures: Population
Time span: 400BCE-2,000CE
Geographical coverage: Global by country and regions

This above source is an input used in producing the HYDE project data, as well as other datasets. Further references to this source are available in Goldewijk, K. K., Beusen, A., & Janssen, P. (2010). Long-term dynamic modelling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way: HYDE 3.1. The Holocene.

History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE)

Data Source: History Database of the Global Environment project, using estimates from McEvedy and Jones (1978), Livi-Bacci (2007)¹⁷, Maddison (2001)¹⁸, and Denevan (1992)¹⁹

Description of available measures: Geographic distribution of the world population

Time span: 10,000BCE-2,000CE

Geographical coverage: Global at a 5 arc-minute spatial resolution

Link: https://www.pbl.nl/en/image/links/hyde

The data from the HYDE project is in turn the basis for the population series published by the ‘Clio-Infra’ project

Clio-Infra

Data Source: HYDE project and UN Population Division
Description of available measures: Population
Time span: 1,500-2,000CE
Geographical coverage: Global by country
Link: www.clio-infra.eu/

Estimates of population in recent history and projections

UN Population Database

Data Source: UN Population Division based on ‘cohort-component’ framework by demographic trends (see Data Quality section)
Description of available measures:
◦ Population, by Five-Year Age Group and Sex
◦ Population Sex Ratio (males per 100 females)
◦ Median Age
◦ Population Growth Per Year
◦ Crude Birth Rate
◦ Crude Death Rate
◦ Net Reproduction Rate
◦ Total Fertility Rate
◦ Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex
◦ Net Migration Rate
◦ Sex ratio at birth
◦ Births
◦ Births by Age-group of Mother
◦ Age-specific Fertility Rates
◦ Women Aged 15-49
◦ Deaths by Sex
◦ Infant Mortality
◦ Mortality Under Age 5
◦ Dependency Ratios
◦ Population by Age: 0-4, 0-14, 5-14, 15-24, 15-59, 15-64, 60+, 65+, 80+
Time span: 1950-2015
Geographical coverage: Global by country
Link: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

Gridded Population of the World (GPW)

Data Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), published by the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SDAC) based on census data
Description of available measures: Population
Time span: 1990-2010
Geographical coverage: Global at a 2.5 arc-minute spatial resolution
Link: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/gpw-v3
Notes: Within the CIESIN, the Anthropogenic Biomes map the distribution of the world population at different points in time: 1700, 1800, 1900, 2000. These maps focus on the varying impact of humans on the environment.

LandScan

Data Publisher: University of Iowa (originally developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the Department of Defense, U.S.)
Data Source: Annual mid-year national population estimates from the Geographic Studies Branch, US Bureau of Census
Description of available measures: Population and ‘ambient population’ (a measure of person-hours accounting for varying presence throughout the day in commercial areas)
Time span: 1998-2012, but authors warn of inter-temporal comparability issues
Geographical coverage: Global at 30 arc-second grid spatial resolution (highest population resolution available)
Link: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/gpw-v3

World Development Indicators

Data Publisher: World Bank
Data Source: UN Population Division
Description of available measures: Population growth (annual %)
Time span: 1981-2015
Geographical coverage: Global by country
Link: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/

Compilations of census data and other sources

The Minnesota Population Center publishes various high-quality datasets based on census data beginning in 1790. At the time of writing, this source was online at www.pop.umn.edu/index.php. It focuses on North America and Europe.

The Data & Information Services Center (DISC) Archive at the University of Wisconsin-Madison provides access to census data and population datasets (mostly for the Americas). At the time of writing, this source was online at http://www.disc.wisc.edu.

The International Database published by the U.S. Census Bureau provides data for the time 1950-2100. At the time of writing, this source was online at https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/informationGateway.php.

The Atlas of the Biosphere publishes data on Population Density. At the time of writing, this source was online at www.sage.wisc.edu/atlas/maps.

Источник

Revelers crowd Times Square ahead of the New Year’s Eve celebration on December 31, 2017 in New York City.
(Image credit: Stephanie Keith/Stringer/Getty Images)

There are approximately 7.8 billion people in the world as of July 2020, according to a 2020 report published in the journal The Lancet.

The global population is an estimate of the total number of people living on the planet, rather than a true running total of every baby born minus every person who has died at a given moment in time.

Because it’s impossible to keep track of the real-time numbers of births and deaths worldwide, demographers, or statisticians that study human populations, calculate the world’s population by adding up estimates of regional populations, according to the United Nations. They arrive at these regional estimates by taking into account a variety of factors, including fertility rate, or the average number of children that a woman has in her lifetime, and mortality rate, or a person’s life expectancy, given the social and economic conditions of the region.

The world’s population has grown rapidly in the last two centuries, driven largely by an increase in the number of people surviving to reproductive age as quality of life and healthcare have improved in almost every country around the world over this time. However, ever since peaking in the 1970’s, the global population growth rate has slowed, according to a 1993 report published in the journal Population Today (opens in new tab).

The world’s population reached 1 billion a little more than 200 years ago, in 1800, according to Our World in Data (opens in new tab), an open-source database and charity based in England and Wales. The rate of growth quickly accelerated in the years that followed. The next billion came a little over one century later, in 1927. The global population hit 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1975, 5 billion in 1987 and 6 billion in 1999, according to the United Nations (opens in new tab). There were an estimated 7 billion people in the world as of Oct. 31, 2011 and that number is projected to reach 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion in 2037 and 10 billion by 2057, according to the same United Nations data.

The U.N. projects that the world’s population will reach about 11 billion by 2100, though long-term future projections are subject to change. In 2019, a report published by the United Nations (opens in new tab) predicted that the global population annual growth rate would fall to less than 0.1% by 2100, due to a decreasing number of children born worldwide.

Related: Why global population growth will grind to a halt by 2100 (opens in new tab)

Over the last 50 years, the composition of the world population, or the number of people in various demographic categories such as nationality, ethnicity and age, has changed because the nature of population growth isn’t uniform across the regions of the world. Populations in certain areas are growing more quickly than others due to differences in fertility and mortality rates, as well as differing patterns of migration.

In general, demographers have identified four demographic «mega-trends» that can help explain these changes in the composition of the global population: overall population growth, aging, increasing international migration and urbanization. These are overarching themes that broadly point to how and why the global population will change in the coming years.

(Image credit: Shutterstock)

The history of global population growth over time

For the vast majority of human history, the global population grew relatively slowly. Historical demographers have estimated that about 4 million people lived on Earth in 10,000 B.C., according to Our World in Data. That number grew to about 190 million people at the dawn of the first millennia, at A.D. 0. The population continued to rise from then on, though it might have either stayed the same or declined during the Black Death, when the Bubonic Plague struck Europe and killed between 33% and 55% of the population in the 1300s.

The average annual population growth rate was 0.04% annually from 10,000 B.C. to A.D. 1700, according to Our World in Data. By 1800, there were approximately 1 billion people living in the world, per the same source. The Industrial Revolution at the turn of the century spurred an acceleration in the global population growth rate that lasted for the next 100 years, leading up to the world’s two-billionth human being born in 1927.

From 1920 to 1950, the population growth rate averaged around 1% a year, according to Our World in Data. By the middle of the century, advances in public health, especially the discovery of antibiotics, increased the average life expectancy, and the number of people on the planet surged.

Thirty-three years after the global population hit 2 billion, in 1960, the global population hit 3 billion. The growth rate during the last half of the 1960s hit an all-time peak, averaging 2.04% a year, according to a 1998 study published in the journal Medicine & Global Survival.

Population growth exploded in the later half of the 20th century due to a number of reasons, including a widespread decline in mortality, especially among children, said Sara Hertog, a demographer with the United Nations. «And of course, improved survival of children means more adults a couple of decades later who have more children for the next generation,» Hertog told Live Science. «Also, the post-war baby boom [beginning in late 1940s] led to population growth in North America and Europe in particular.»

By the 1970s, the popularization of contraception helped slow population growth once again. But because so many humans were already on the planet, a so-called «population explosion» was beginning to take place, and the global population reached 4 billion in 1974. In 1987, just 13 years later, there were 5 billion people. And just 12 years after that, in 1999, there were 6 billion. Another 12 years later, in 2011, there were 7 billion, and it’s projected that it will take another 12 years to reach 8 billion in 2023, according to United Nations’ estimates.

However, the rate of global population growth has slowed considerably since the population explosion of the 1970s. It’s currently about 1.05% as of 2020, according to Worldometer, an independent open-source database. The growth rate was 1.08% in 2019, 1.10% in 2018, and 1.12% in 2017, according to Worldometer, which uses United Nations’ population data for these calculations.

Breaking global population growth down by region shows that the declining growth rate trend is not taking place everywhere. For example, the population growth rate is about 2.7% in Sub-Saharan Africa as of 2020, according to the Economist (opens in new tab). This is where demographers expect over half of the world’s population to grow over the next century, largely due to high fertility rates and decreasing mortality rates there.

Taxis crowded downtown in Kampala, Uganda. According to 2017 data from the UN, Uganda has recently had the highest non-immigration population growth rate thanks to high fertility rates and decreasing mortality. (Image credit: Black Sheep Media/Shutterstock)

The fertility rate and global population

The fertility rate is one of the most important numbers that’s used to estimate the global population. The total fertility rate of a population is the average number of offspring per woman and because it’s an average, it’s calculated to the tenth decimal point. If the fertility rate increases while other factors for population remain the same, the population will grow.

A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is known as the replacement fertility rate. It means that a population will neither decline nor grow. This is because on average, if women each give birth to 2.1 children that survive to at least age 15, these children will replace the mother and her partner in the next generation, according to the encyclopedia Britannica.

The global average fertility rate is 2.5 as of 2015, according to the United Nations. (This is a significant decrease from an average of 3.2 births per woman in 1990.) But fertility rates around the world vary widely depending on the specific region. The total fertility rate in Sub-Saharan Africa is 4.6, for example, while in North America and Europe it’s 1.7.

Related: US birth rate hits all-time low: What’s behind the decline?

«There are a number of factors that influence the fertility rate of a given country,» Hertog said. «Most notably, the level of human development and the women’s access to education and employment opportunities, and access to information and resources for family planning that enables them to decide on the timing and number of their children.»

Several studies have shown that when women and girls have the same educational opportunities as their male peers, women have more opportunities later in life and tend to have fewer children. This could be due to the fact that women may choose to delay having children when they pursue education and gainful employment.

In addition, urbanization tends to lead to lower fertility rates. Urban areas typically undergo a «demographic transition» — a shift from high birth and death rates, to low birth and death rates.

However, lower birth and death rates in urban areas isn’t a guarantee, «given that the quality of healthcare and sanitation is not universally better in urban areas, specifically, for example, in slum conditions,» Hertog said. «But one thing that happens in urban areas that affects fertility and thus, population growth, is that women tend to have more access to education, employment opportunities and reproductive healthcare.»

Children walking to school in Madagascar. When women and girls have the same educational opportunities as their male peers, women have more opportunities later in life and tend to have fewer children. (Image credit: Andia/Universal Images Group/Getty Images)

Mortality and the global population

Mortality refers to the measure of the number of deaths in a population. This data is usually obtained from countries’ death registers.

It can be difficult for demographers to get an exact number of deaths in a population over a given time, because not every country maintains national birth and death databases or conducts a census registering all births and deaths. If this is the case, demographers can estimate the number of deaths in a population based on surveys. They use this number along with factors such as life expectancy and other demographic factors including gender to calculate the rate of mortality. (Life expectancy is estimated based on poverty rates, health quality, especially prevalence of infectious diseases, for a given year.)

According to Our World in Data, historical demographers have estimated that life expectancy was around 30 years in all regions of the world before industrialization, which began in Europe around 1800. There were high rates of infant and youth (those under the age of 15) mortality, with about 27% of all children dying before the age of 1 and about 47% of all children dying before the age of 15, according to a 2013 study published in the journal Evolution and Human Behavior. The global fertility rate was 5.77, according to economist Mattias Lindgren at global development foundation Gapminder, though the rate ranged by country. In the United States, it was 7, while in Norway, it was 4.3.

But infant, youth and adult mortality have decreased around the world, bringing the life expectancy up, largely due to advances in food production, medicine and sanitation, according to a 2013 report published in The Lancet.

The average global life expectancy improved from 46.5 years between 1950 — 1955 to 65 years between 1995 — 2000, according to the World Health Organization. As of 2019, the United Nations estimated a global average life expectancy of 72.6 years.

Still, life expectancy varies around the world. Global life expectancy in 2016 was 72 years on average, but that ranged from about 61.2 years throughout Africa to 77.5 years in Europe, according to the World Health Organization.

Studies have shown that there is a correlation between a low standard of living, which accompanies higher levels of poverty, and lower life expectancies. In addition, major events such as wars, natural disasters, famines and pandemics can have a significant impact on the overall mortality of a population.

How demographers find data to reach these calculations

Demographers rely upon countries’ vital statistics and censuses to gather data on the number of births, deaths, emigration and immigration that take place within each country. However, not all countries keep these records, and even when they do, the records aren’t always accurate. Many developing countries, countries that are experiencing conflicts or areas where natural disasters have caused mass human displacement do not have available data.

If country-wide data are not available demographers rely on household surveys, Hertog said. These surveys sample a representative number of households in a country. An interviewer visits each of those households and interviews household members, asking key questions about their characteristics such as age of household members, education level, income, household situation and births and deaths in their family.

Related: How do you count seven million people?

Demographers will then use the data collected in their surveys to extrapolate fertility and mortality for the country’s population. This data goes into making the projections of the global population in the coming years.

The United States has had a federal census office since 1840. Now, the census is taken every 10 years and used to determine the demographics of the country as well as reapportion seats in the House of Representatives. (Image credit: US Census Bureau)

Projections of the future global population

Population projections attempt to show how many people will live on the planet in the near future and in the long-term. The projections of future global populations are not definite, given that the conditions determining how many children will be born and how many people will die are constantly changing.

Related: What 11 billion people means for the planet

A 2019 United Nations report found that nine countries will contribute more than half of all projected global population growth by 2050: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the U.S. (in descending order of projected growth).

Having accurate projections of the global population is important for understanding how people will use the finite resources of the planet. In addition, understanding the population distribution is crucial to understand how to best allocate resources.

For example, predicting how many children will be born, and where, can help determine where resources for healthcare and education should be directed. And predicting the number of people entering an area’s workforce can help countries figure out how to establish the most efficient labor markets.

Additional resources:

Compare where people live around the globe in this data visualization of different countries’ populations, from the Visual Capitalist.
Learn more about the implications of a shrinking global population, from The Atlantic.
Dive deeper into what global fertility rates are and how they are changing, from The Conversation UK.

Holly Secon is a freelance science writer based in California. She has worked as a science writing fellow at Business Insider, and was an associate editor at GreenBiz. Previously, she worked in communications at Twitter and at the National Writing Project. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Media Studies from UC Berkeley.

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